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It’s no stretch…Exaggerator Loves The Mud
- Updated: May 28, 2016
Just as I suspected, if it were to rain real good on Preakness Day, Exaggerator would have his best chance of finally beating Nyquist.
But in my mind one question will always remain. Would he have, had it not been for a sloppy track at Pimlico?
I would argue that he could have, but it wouldn’t have looked as easy as it did.
Exaggerator Gets His Way
As the horses made their way over the muddy track to be saddled in the paddock, it was evident that Exaggerator had racing on his mind. I paid strict attention to him as he danced over the slop on his way to the saddling area, he looked the part of every handicapper’s dream — to find the horse that says I’m the one in here, pal.
On the morning of the Kentucky Derby I posted how it’s important to know that the favorites only win 33% of the time. Still Nyquist prevailed in the Derby as the favorite. But in the Preakness there were two things going against fans and backers of Nyquist. Both could be considered just my opinion, if they weren’t backed up by statistical data.
Nyquist’s trainer Doug O’Neil was asked before the race how might the track condition affect his then undefeated champ and said ‘the track was a little off in the Florida Derby’ and ‘there was even a little moisture in the track in Louisville on Derby Day’ but there’s quite a bit of difference between a little moisture and a lot of rain.
And rain it did in Maryland for the Preakness.
The racing world headlines all read pretty much the same and goes something like this; “Exaggerator wins Preakness, Ends Nyquist’s Triple Crown Bid” but only a few mention the “mud” in their headline, but that’s the real story.
I loved it as Exaggerator blew past Nyquist at the top of the stretch and splashed home an easy winner like he did in the Santa Anita Derby.
I loved it as I watched Cherry Wine roll up inside Nyquist to grab second.
I loved it because I cashed my exacta tickets based on their past performances in the mud.
Let this be a lesson for new handicappers looking to understand the many variables that need to be considered when betting your hard earned money on a horse. When it rains and it changes the condition of the track you have to adjust your handicapping and look for horses who show they like it, like that.
Since it was announced that Nyquist won’t go in the Belmont, come rain or shine, we’ll have to wait until the Breeders’ Cup Classic for a possible rematch between the two. And it just so happens that the 2016 edition of the Cup will take place at Santa Anita where Exaggerator stepped up his game — and stamped his name — in the mud.
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