American Promise’s Road to the 2025 Preakness Stakes: Race Progression and Key Wins
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Race Progression Analysis for American Promise
We analyze American Promise’s race progression towards the 2025 Preakness Stakes, drawing on his PPs and comparing him to other contenders.
Race Progression Breakdown
American Promise, trained by D. Wayne Lukas, has a record of 2-1-1 in 10 starts, with a rating of 80 (7th among Preakness contenders). He enters the Preakness as a 15-1 longshot from post 3, coming off a disappointing 16th in the Kentucky Derby but with a strong win in the Virginia Derby (G3).
Early 2-Year-Old Start (November 30, 2024)
On November 30, 2024, American Promise raced at Churchill Downs in a 1 1/16-mile maiden special weight on a fast dirt track, finishing 4th in 1:43.88 with an 87 speed figure. In an 11-horse field, he yielded to Monet’s Magic, Kalahari Dreams, and Burnham Square. His time is slower than Journalism’s maiden win (1:36.08 at 1 mile, 105 speed figure) but comparable to Goal Oriented’s allowance win (1:42.79, 104), showing he could compete at middle distances early.
Maiden Win (December 29, 2024)
American Promise broke his maiden on December 29, 2024, at Oaklawn Park in a 1 1/16-mile maiden special weight on a muddy dirt track, winning by 1 ¼ lengths in 1:44.67. In an 8-horse field, he led wire-to-wire, and held off Publisher and Knicks Glory. His time is slower than Goal Oriented’s allowance win (1:42.79, 104) but faster than Pay Billy’s Private Terms Stakes (1:44.98, 93), and his muddy-track success is a key asset, unlike Gosger or River Thames (untested on wet dirt).
Southwest Stakes (G3) (January 25, 2025)
On January 25, 2025, American Promise competed in the Southwest Stakes (G3) at Oaklawn Park over 1 1/16 miles on a fast dirt track, finishing 6th (disqualified to 7th) in 1:45.75 with a 91 speed figure. In a 9-horse field, he broke slowly, came in at the 1/8 pole, and faded behind Speed King, Sandman, and Tiztastic. His performance was weaker than Journalism’s San Felipe win (1:42.08, 110) and Gosger’s Lexington Stakes (1:44.67, 96), reflecting struggles in graded stakes company.
Risen Star Stakes (G2) (February 15, 2025)
On February 15, 2025, American Promise raced in the Risen Star Stakes (G2) at Fair Grounds over 1 1/8 miles on a fast dirt track, finishing 5th in 1:48.75 with an 86 speed figure. In a 12-horse field, he raced inside, moved up for show at the 1/4 pole, and gave way to Magnitude, Chunk of Gold, and Built. His time is slower than River Thames’s Blue Grass third (1:51.11, 103) and Heart of Honor’s UAE Derby second (1:59.61, 109), indicating he struggled to sustain his early pace against tougher competition.
Virginia Derby (G3) (March 15, 2025)
American Promise’s standout prep was the Virginia Derby (G3) on March 15, 2025, at Colonial Downs over 1 1/8 miles on a fast dirt track, winning by 1 ½ lengths in 1:46.67 with a 101 speed figure. In a 7-horse field, he raced confidently four-to-three-wide, driving past Render Judgment and Omaha Omaha. His time is faster than Pay Billy’s Federico Tesio (1:52.57, 93) and competitive with Journalism’s Santa Anita Derby (1:49.25, 108), marking a return to form.
Kentucky Derby (G1) (May 3, 2025)
American Promise’s most recent race was the Kentucky Derby (G1) on May 3, 2025, at Churchill Downs over 1 1/4 miles on a sloppy dirt track, finishing 16th in 2:02.16 with a 52 speed figure. In a 19-horse field, he was bumped, made an early move, and faded behind Sovereignty, Journalism, and Baeza. His poor showing contrasts with Journalism’s second (101 speed figure) and is worse than Heart of Honor’s UAE Derby second (1:59.61, 109), suggesting the 1 1/4-mile distance or large field overwhelmed him.
Analysis of Progression
American Promise’s progression shows a horse with flashes of brilliance but inconsistency, with a 2-1-1 record in 10 starts. His maiden win (1:44.67, 102 speed figure) and Virginia Derby win (1:46.67, 101) are highlights, but his Southwest (91) and Risen Star (86) disappointments and Derby fade (52) raise concerns. His times range from 1:43.88 (1 1/16 miles) to 1:46.67 (1 1/8 miles), with his best speed figure (102) competitive with Pay Billy (93) but trailing Journalism (110) and Goal Oriented (104). His front-running style, evident in his maiden and Virginia Derby wins, aligns with Pay Billy and Goal Oriented but faltered in the Derby’s longer distance and large field. His muddy-track win (maiden) is a strength, unlike Gosger or River Thames, who lack wet-track experience.
His pedigree, with Justify (2018 Triple Crown winner) and Tapit (sire of four Belmont winners), supports stamina for 1 3/16 miles, as does his Virginia Derby win. However, his 10 starts give him more experience than Goal Oriented (2) or Gosger (3) but expose inconsistency compared to Journalism’s 6-for-6 in-the-money record. His ability to handle muddy tracks and smaller fields (7 in the Virginia Derby) is a plus, but his Derby fade suggests stamina or traffic issues.
Comparison to Other Contenders
American Promise’s front-running style aligns with Goal Oriented and Pay Billy (Goal Oriented’s allowance, 1:42.79, 104; Pay Billy’s Federico Tesio, 1:52.57, 93). Goal Oriented’s undefeated record and Pay Billy’s four wins give them stronger resumes, while American Promise’s 2-for-10 record shows less consistency. Journalism and Gosger, as closers (Journalism’s Derby second, 2:02.16, 101; Gosger’s Lexington, 1:44.67, 96), could benefit from his early speed, similar to how Sovereignty overtook him in the Derby. River Thames, another closer (Blue Grass third, 1:51.11, 103), has a better recent graded stakes placing than American Promise’s Derby 16th. Heart of Honor’s international experience (UAE Derby second, 1:59.61, 109) and 6-for-6 in-the-money record outshine American Promise’s spotty form. His 101 speed figure in the Virginia Derby is competitive with River Thames (103) but trails Journalism’s 110 peak.
Looking Ahead to the Preakness Stakes
American Promise enters the 2025 Preakness Stakes as a 15-1 longshot from post 3, a decent draw for his front-running style. His pedigree, with Justify (2018 Preakness, 1:55.93) and Tapit (sire of Tonalist, 2014 Belmont), suggests he can handle 1 3/16 miles, supported by his Virginia Derby win (1:46.67). His muddy-track maiden win gives him an edge if Pimlico turns wet, unlike Gosger, River Thames, or Clever Again (limited wet-track data). His recent workout (5 furlongs in :59.40 at Churchill Downs on April 26, 2025) shows readiness, though less sharp than Goal Oriented’s :47.60 4-furlong breeze.
The 8-horse Preakness field is smaller than the Derby’s 19, favoring him compared to his Derby fade, and aligns with his Virginia Derby success (7 horses). His early speed could challenge Goal Oriented and Pay Billy, potentially setting up closers like Journalism or Gosger, as seen in our Preakness Stakes analysis. His 15-1 odds make him a value play for exotic bets, especially paired with closers like Journalism (8-5) or Heart of Honor (12-1), but his inconsistency and Derby performance make him a riskier win bet compared to Journalism or Goal Oriented (6-1).
