Handicapping DRF’s Formulator PPs Race of the Day: Florida Derby Analysis & Picks – March 29, 2025

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Analysis and Handicapping for Gulfstream Park Race 14 – March 29, 2025

Neoequos

Strengths:
Consistent performer at Gulfstream (6 starts, 2 wins, 2 seconds, 1 third, $179,050).
Third in the G2 Fountain of Youth (1 1/16 miles) on March 1, 2025, with a 91 Beyer, showing he can handle graded stakes company.
High early pace (TimeformUS 120) suggests he’ll be on or near the lead, which suits Gulfstream’s often speed-friendly track.
Trainer Saffie Joseph Jr. (20% win rate lifetime, 25% in 2024) and jockey Edgard Zayas (15% lifetime, 19% in 2024) are a strong combo, with 28 wins together at the meet.
Concerns:
Late pace figure (56) is low, and the “Closer Look” notes distance suspect at 1 1/8 miles—faded late in the Fountain of Youth.
Best Beyer (91) is solid but below some rivals here.
Verdict: Likely pacesetter but may struggle to hold off closers over the extra furlong. Use in exotics.

Cool Intentions

Strengths:
Two wins from four starts, including a strong N1X allowance at 7 furlongs (81 Beyer).
Javier Castellano has won the Florida Derby before (2014, Constitution).
Concerns:
Poor effort in the Mucho Macho Man (1 mile, 67 Beyer) on January 4, 2025, and idle since—may lack sharpness.
Low early pace (92) and moderate late pace (74) suggest he’s not dynamic enough for this field.
Trainer Jorge Delgado’s 16% win rate is decent, but Castellano’s 11% meet strike rate for him is modest.
Verdict: Outsider; lacks the form and figures to contend.

Smoken Boy

Strengths:
G1 winner in Puerto Rico (1 1/16 miles, muddy track), showing some class.
Trainer Cheryl Winebaugh has a 22% win rate off claims with a $3.87 ROI.
Concerns:
Poor U.S. form: 7th in the Sam F. Davis (81 Beyer) and 6th in a recent N1X/optional claimer (68 Beyer).
Low early (85) and late (88) pace figures; outclassed here.
Jockey Edgar Perez (8% win rate) and Winebaugh (3% lifetime) are weak statistically.
Verdict: Longshot; doesn’t belong in this field.

Disruptor

Strengths:
Impressive maiden win on March 1, 2025, at 7 furlongs (92 Beyer), showing sharp current form.
Trainer Todd Pletcher has won the Florida Derby a record 8 times, and jockey Irad Ortiz Jr. (24% win rate) has won it twice with him.
High early pace (118) and a Gun Runner pedigree suggest he’ll handle the stretch-out to 9 furlongs.
Recent bullet workout (4f in :48.4 on March 22) indicates peak condition.
Concerns:
Only two starts; untested in stakes company.
Faded to third on debut (89 Beyer) despite being favored, though rebounded strongly next out.
Verdict: Lightly raced but talented; a major contender with upside.

Indecisiveness

Strengths:
Third in a 9-furlong N1X allowance on February 27, 2025 (85 Beyer), proving he can handle the distance.
Jockey Jose Ruiz (12% win rate) is capable.
Concerns:
Beyers (top of 79) are well below the leaders here.
Trainer Ruben Sierra (9% win rate) and modest pedigree (Decisive Moment) suggest limited ceiling.
Verdict: Likely to hit the board at best; not a win threat.

Jimmy’s Dailys

Strengths:
Second in a 9-furlong N1X allowance on February 27, 2025 (88 Beyer), showing stamina.
Maiden win at 7 furlongs (91 Beyer) on January 25, 2025, was solid.
Jockey Joel Rosario (15% win rate) is a plus.
Concerns:
Early pace (105) is decent, but late pace (58) indicates he tires late.
Trainer Brian Lynch (16% win rate) has no wins with Rosario at the meet (0 for 2).
Verdict: Respectable form; include in exotics but not a top pick.

Enterdadragon

Strengths:
Most experienced (9 starts), with a turf stakes win and a recent second in the Colin Liam (93 Beyer).
Late pace (103) is strong; could close into a fast pace.
Trainer Jose D’Angelo (20% win rate) is solid.
Concerns:
Lone dirt start was poor (5th in a stakes, 71 Beyer); primarily a turf horse.
Jockey Dylan Davis (13% win rate) is decent but not elite.
Verdict: Turf specialist; unlikely to fire on dirt.

Madaket Road

Strengths:
Second in the G2 Rebel (1 1/16 miles, 94 Beyer) on February 23, 2025, beating strong horses like Sandman.
Trainer Bob Baffert (28% win rate in 2024) has a 33% strike rate removing blinkers (off here).
High early pace (111) and solid late pace (80) fit this race’s demands.
Recent bullet works at Santa Anita (e.g., 4f in :46.2 on March 16) signal readiness.
Concerns:
Shipping from California; Baffert’s 1-for-4 Gulfstream record is modest.
Jockey switch to Mike Smith (replacing injured Gaffalione) is untested here.
Verdict: Proven stakes form and Baffert’s magic make him a top contender.

Tappan Street

Strengths:
Second in the G3 Holy Bull (1 1/16 miles, 89 Beyer) on February 1, 2025, after a debut win (88 Beyer).
Late pace (116) is elite; could thrive with a contested pace.
Trainer Brad Cox (27% win rate in 2024) and jockey Luis Saez (17% win rate) won the 2019 Florida Derby together.
Concerns:
Only two starts; untested at 9 furlongs.
Early pace (94) is moderate; needs a setup.
Verdict: High potential; a serious player if he handles the distance.

Sovereignty

Strengths:
Won the G2 Fountain of Youth (95 Beyer) on March 1, 2025, with a big late run (Late Pace 108).
G2 Street Sense winner (87 Beyer) at Churchill; 60 Derby points already secured.
Trainer Bill Mott (14% win rate) excels with routers, and he’s 24% off a win.
Into Mischief pedigree suits 9 furlongs.
Concerns:
Jockey switch to Manny Franco (Alvarado injured) is a slight downgrade.
Short price may not offer value given his “solid showing” goal.
Verdict: Classiest horse; the one to beat but vulnerable at a low price.

Handicapping Analysis

Pace Scenario: Neoequos (Early 120), Disruptor (118), and Madaket Road (111) have the highest early pace figures, suggesting a fast tempo. This could set up closers like Sovereignty (Late 108), Tappan Street (116), and Enterdadragon (103), though the latter struggles on dirt.
Class: Sovereignty (G2 winner, 95 Beyer) and Madaket Road (G2-placed, 94 Beyer) have the strongest stakes credentials. Disruptor (92 Beyer maiden win) and Tappan Street (G3-placed, 89 Beyer) are unproven but promising.
Distance: Neoequos and Jimmy’s Dailys may fade late, while Sovereignty, Madaket Road, Tappan Street, and Disruptor have pedigrees and form suggesting 9 furlongs is within reach.
Trainer/Jockey: Pletcher/Ortiz (Disruptor), Baffert/Smith (Madaket Road), and Cox/Saez (Tappan Street) are elite combos. Mott/Franco (Sovereignty) is strong but slightly less dynamic here.

Final Rankings

Sovereignty: Top Beyer, proven at the distance, and class edge; the favorite for a reason.
Disruptor: Sharp form, top trainer/jockey, and speed to control the race; big threat.
Madaket Road: Stakes experience, Baffert’s touch, and balanced pace figures; live at a price.
Tappan Street: Late kick and Cox/Saez upside; needs pace to shine.
Neoequos: Pacesetter with local success but distance doubts; exotic filler.
Jimmy’s Dailys: Solid but unspectacular; minor award contender.
Indecisiveness: Outclassed but could sneak a piece.
Enterdadragon: Turf horse; off the board.
Cool Intentions: Dull form; no chance.
Smoken Boy: Overmatched; last.

Suggested Bets

Win: Disruptor (value over Sovereignty’s likely short odds).
Exacta Box: Sovereignty, Disruptor, Madaket Road.
Trifecta Key: Disruptor over Sovereignty, Madaket Road, Tappan Street, Neoequos.

This handicap balances current form, pedigree, and trainer intent for the March 29, 2025, Florida Derby. Good luck!

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