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2025 Pacific Classic Handicap Analysis

Free Del Mar picks Canva

The Grade 1 Pacific Classic, contested at 1 1/4 miles on the dirt at Del Mar Racetrack, offers a $1,000,000 purse and attracts a competitive field of three-year-olds and upward. This classic distance test often rewards horses with tactical speed and stamina, especially on Del Mar’s main track, which can favor closers if the early fractions are contested. Based on the free past performances, we’ve applied a our handicapping algorithm, which incorporates metrics from the data—such as composite ratings (a blended score of form, class, and connections), performance ratings (adjusted speed evaluations from prior races), and pace benchmarks (expected early and late standards for the race: Early Pace Benchmarks 95/105, Final Pace Benchmark 94/105). The algorithm weighs recent form, running styles, trainer/jockey stats, workouts, and historical trends at the distance and track. With multiple early/presser types in the field, expect a brisk early pace that could set up for stalkers or closers.

Horse-by-Horse Breakdown

  1. Fierceness (Post 1, 4yo Colt, Trainer: Todd Pletcher, Jockey: John Velazquez, 124 lbs, Running Style: Early/Presser)
    Composite Rating: 155.1 (2nd). Career Performance Ratings: 112 (Lifetime), 107 (2025), 112 (2024). This rail-drawn colt boasts the field’s best dirt performance rating (112) and holds a note for having the fastest dirt speed among starters. His recent form shows a mix: a 100 rating in the Whitney (G1) where he faded after pressing wide, but prior wins include a dominant Alysheba (G2) at 107. Sharp 4f workout on Aug. 23 signals readiness, and the inside post (winning 21% recently) aids his tactical speed. However, he’s failed as the favorite in his last two, suggesting vulnerability under pressure. Strong contender if he controls the pace early; fits well against the early pace benchmarks (recent Early Speed Metrics often 86/100+).
  2. Midnight Mammoth (Post 2, 6yo Gelding, Trainer: Craig Dollase, Jockey: Armando Ayuso, 124 lbs, Running Style: Early/Presser)
    Composite Rating: 140.2 (5th). Career Performance Ratings: 107 (Lifetime), 107 (2025), 102 (2024). Returning from a layoff (90+ days), he ran 2nd in the Gold Cup (G2) with a 107 rating, pressing and battling gamely. His early speed metrics (often 95/110+) could contest the lead, but the trainer’s low 7% win rate this year and poor stats off extended breaks are concerns. Highest last-race rating in the field, but the rest period and class hike temper expectations. Capable of hitting the board if fit.
  3. Ultimate Gamble (Post 3, 5yo Horse, Trainer: Mark Glatt, Jockey: Kazushi Kimura, 124 lbs, Running Style: Early)
    Composite Rating: 135.3 (7th). Career Performance Ratings: 100 (Lifetime), 100 (2025), 99 (2024). Fresh off a win (via DQ) in an optional claimer at 100, with a sharp 6f workout on Aug. 23. His early style suits pressing the pace, but lower performance ratings (88-100 range recently) rank poorly against top rivals, and he’s stepping up in class. Trainer’s 20% win rate is solid, but this looks like a tough spot—better suited for underneath in exotics.
  4. Nysos (Post 4, 4yo Colt, Trainer: Bob Baffert, Jockey: Flavien Prat, 124 lbs, Running Style: Early/Presser)
    Composite Rating: 152.4 (3rd). Career Performance Ratings: 106 (Lifetime), 106 (2025), 100 (2024). Undefeated in five dirt starts before a dead-heat 2nd in the Churchill Downs (G1) on slop, he rebounded with a sharp San Diego H. (G2) win at 104, tipping out and drawing clear handily. Trainer Baffert’s 33% win rate this year and 37% with last-out winners shine here, plus a bullet 5f workout on Aug. 21. His early/presser style (Early Speed Metrics 91/103+) positions him well, and undefeated at Del Mar. Major player with upside.
  5. Indispensable (Post 5, 4yo Colt, Trainer: John Sadler, Jockey: Paco Lopez, 124 lbs, Running Style: Early/Presser)
    Composite Rating: 140.7 (4th). Career Performance Ratings: 103 (Lifetime), 101 (2025), 103 (2024). Won last out in an optional claimer at 101, exchanging bumps but prevailing. His dirt ratings are close to the average winning speed here, with a sharp 5f workout on Aug. 23. Trainer Sadler’s 20% rate and 19% with last-out winners help, but class jump from allowance level is notable. Tactical speed could keep him involved; value for exotics.
  6. Journalism (Post 6, 3yo Colt, Trainer: Michael McCarthy, Jockey: Umberto Rispoli, 118 lbs, Running Style: Presser)
    Composite Rating: 156.2 (1st). Career Performance Ratings: 108 (Lifetime), 108 (2025), 99 (2024). Tops the field in composite rating and enters off a Haskell (G1) win at 105, surging late 3-4w. As a 3yo getting 6 lbs weight break, he’s dangerous—recent form includes a close 2nd in the Belmont (G1) at 108 and Preakness (G1) win at 107. Jockey Rispoli’s hot streak (31% wins last 7 days) and trainer’s 21% with last-out winners add appeal. Presser style suits a contested pace; best recent Final Speed Metrics (103-107) make him the one to beat.
  7. Lure Him In (Post 7, 8yo Gelding, Trainer: Sam Wilensky, Jockey: Edwin Gonzalez, 124 lbs, Running Style: Early/Presser)
    Composite Rating: 133.7 (8th). Career Performance Ratings: 100 (Lifetime), 100 (2025), 100 (2024). Closed for 3rd in a recent optional claimer at 100, but lower ratings and beaten by weaker last out hurt. Trainer’s 27% on dirt is intriguing, but overall figs rank low. Outside post may force a wide trip; minor award at best.
  8. Tarantino (Post 8, 7yo Gelding, Trainer: Peter Eurton, Jockey: Edwin Maldonado, 124 lbs, Running Style: Early)
    Composite Rating: 139.7 (6th). Career Performance Ratings: 99 (Lifetime), 98 (2025), 99 (2024). 3rd in the San Diego H. (G2) at 97, pressing but weakening. Trainer Eurton’s 24% rate is solid, and jockey’s recent 25% wins help, but poor graded stakes record (5% wins) and low ratings suggest he’s up against it. Early style could factor, but likely fades late.

Pace and Race Shape Analysis

With six early/presser types (Fierceness, Midnight Mammoth, Ultimate Gamble, Nysos, Indispensable, Lure Him In, Tarantino), the early fractions could exceed the benchmarks (95/105), setting up a potential meltdown. Expect Fierceness and Nysos to vie inside, with Tarantino pushing from outside. This favors pressers/closers like Journalism, who can sit mid-pack and unleash a late kick (strong Final Speed Metrics in G1s). Del Mar’s dirt has played fair, but stamina is key at 10f—favor horses with proven routes.

Predictions

  • Top Pick: #6 Journalism – Highest composite rating, weight advantage, and peaking form make him the standout. His late surge in the Haskell aligns with the projected pace.
  • Second: #4 Nysos – Baffert trainee’s perfect dirt record (5-for-5 before slop loss) and recent G2 win position him as the main threat.
  • Third: #1 Fierceness – Rail and top dirt rating give him a shot if he dictates terms, but inconsistency looms.
  • Fourth: #5 Indispensable – Value underneath with recent win and tactical speed.

Longshot to watch: #2 Midnight Mammoth (if sharp off layoff).

Wagering Strategies

  • Win/Place: #6 Journalism – Solid at even money or better; his form justifies anchor status.
  • Exacta Box: 6-4-1 ($1 for $6 total) – Covers the top trio in any order.
  • Trifecta Key: 6 with 4,1,5 with 4,1,5,2 ($0.50 for $6 total) – Wheels the pick over contenders and a longshot.
  • Superfecta Key: 6 with 4,1 with 4,1,5,2 with 4,1,5,2,8 ($0.10 for $4.80 total) – Low-cost play adding the outside early speed.

Focus on value; adjust based on tote odds. Avoid heavy early speed in multis if the pace heats up.

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