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Pay Billy’s Road to the 2025 Preakness Stakes: Race Progression and Key Wins
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Race Progression Analysis for Pay Billy
We analyze Pay Billy’s race progression towards the 2025 Preakness Stakes, drawing on his past performances (PPs) sourced from industry-standard racing records and comparing him to other contenders.
Race Progression Breakdown
Pay Billy, trained by Michael E. Gorham, has a record of 4-1-1 in 8 starts, with a prime power rating of 85 (6th among Preakness contenders). He enters the Preakness as a 20-1 longshot from post 5, riding a wave of three stakes wins in 2025. Race data is derived from standard racing records, ensuring factual accuracy without reproducing proprietary elements.
Early 2-Year-Old Start (October 26, 2024)
Pay Billy’s earliest recorded start in the PPs was on October 26, 2024, at Laurel Park in a 1 1/16-mile maiden special weight on a fast dirt track, finishing 4th in 1:45.47 with a 59 speed figure. In a 7-horse field, he raced five-wide early, moved three-wide at the 3/8 pole, and finished mildly behind Bestfriend Rocket, King’s Road, and Kitty’s Son. His performance aligns with American Promise’s early maiden fourth (1:43.88, 87) and Heart of Honor’s debut second (1:28.07, 73), showing inexperience but stamina for middle distances.
Maiden Win (December 15, 2024)
On December 15, 2024, Pay Billy broke his maiden at Laurel Park in a 6-furlong maiden special weight on a fast dirt track, winning by a neck in 1:12.87 with an 88 speed figure. In a 6-horse field, he was bumped at the start, stalked, and showed determination to edge Alias and Smuggler’s Gold. His time is slower than Goal Oriented’s debut (1:10.07, 98) and River Thames’s maiden win (1:10.87, 96), but his short-distance speed mirrors Clever Again’s early sprint form.
Allowance Optional Claiming (January 25, 2025)
On January 25, 2025, Pay Billy raced at Laurel Park in a 1-mile allowance optional claiming event ($62,500) on a fast dirt track, winning by 2 lengths in 1:39.87 with an 88 speed figure. In an 8-horse field, he was sent to the lead and driven out to beat All the Hardways and Bjorn. His time is slower than Gosger’s maiden win (1:37.88, 94) and Journalism’s (1:36.08, 105), but his wire-to-wire style aligns with Goal Oriented’s allowance win (1:42.79, 104).
Miracle Wood Stakes (February 22, 2025)
On February 22, 2025, Pay Billy competed in the Miracle Wood Stakes at Laurel Park over 1 mile on a fast dirt track, finishing 2nd in 1:38.16 with an 88 speed figure. In a 5-horse field, he vied outside, led briefly, and was outfinished by Barbadian Runner, ahead of Sacred Thunder. His performance is comparable to Heart of Honor’s UAE 2000 Guineas second (1:37.07, 101), though his lower speed figure reflects a less competitive field.
Private Terms Stakes (March 22, 2025)
On March 22, 2025, Pay Billy won the Private Terms Stakes at Laurel Park over 1 1/16 miles on a fast dirt track by 1 length in 1:44.98 with a 93 speed figure. In a 5-horse field, he bid three-to-four-wide and ridden out to beat Sacred Thunder and Baby Dukes. His time is slower than Journalism’s San Felipe (1:42.08, 110) but faster than American Promise’s maiden win (1:44.67, 102), showing stakes-level improvement.
Federico Tesio Stakes (April 19, 2025)
Pay Billy’s final prep was the Federico Tesio Stakes on April 19, 2025, at Laurel Park over 1 1/8 miles on a fast dirt track, winning by a head in 1:52.57 with a 93 speed figure. In a 10-horse field, he hugged the rail at the 1/4 pole, dueled in the stretch, and held off Just a Fair Shake and Surfside Moon. His time is slower than River Thames’s Blue Grass third (1:51.11, 103) but competitive with Heart of Honor’s Al Bastakiya second (1:59.11, 101), marking him as a legitimate Preakness contender.
Analysis of Progression
Pay Billy’s progression shows steady improvement, moving from a maiden fourth (1:45.47, 59 speed figure) to three stakes wins in 2025 (88–93 speed figures). His times reflect a front-running style: 1:12.87 at 6 furlongs, 1:39.87 to 1:38.16 at 1 mile, 1:44.98 at 1 1/16 miles, and 1:52.57 at 1 1/8 miles. His speed figures (59 to 93) are solid but trail Journalism (110), Heart of Honor (109), and Goal Oriented (104). His wire-to-wire approach, seen in his allowance and stakes wins, aligns with Goal Oriented and Clever Again but contrasts with Heart of Honor and Journalism’s closing styles. His single wet-track start (3rd, 61 speed figure) suggests adaptability, though less proven than American Promise or Journalism on sloppy tracks.
His pedigree, with Improbable (2020 Awesome Again) and Harlington (Tapit son), supports stamina for 1 3/16 miles, as does his Federico Tesio win. His 8 starts give him more experience than Goal Oriented (2) or Gosger (3) but less consistency than Heart of Honor (6-for-6 in the money). His ability to handle a 10-horse field in the Federico Tesio is a plus, unlike Gosger’s smaller fields (7-horse max).
Comparison to Other Contenders
Pay Billy’s front-running style aligns with Goal Oriented and Clever Again (Goal Oriented’s allowance, 1:42.79, 104; Clever Again’s Hot Springs, assumed sprint speed). Goal Oriented’s undefeated record and higher speed figure (104) give him an edge, while Clever Again’s limited starts (assumed 3) lack Pay Billy’s stakes depth. Journalism and Heart of Honor, as closers (Journalism’s Derby second, 2:02.16, 101; Heart of Honor’s UAE Derby, 1:59.61, 109), could benefit from Pay Billy’s early speed, similar to Sovereignty’s Derby rally. River Thames’s Blue Grass third (1:51.11, 103) and Gosger’s Lexington win (1:44.67, 96) show stronger graded stakes form than Pay Billy’s regional stakes wins. American Promise’s Virginia Derby win (1:46.67, 101) is comparable, but his Derby fade (52) contrasts with Pay Billy’s recent consistency. Pay Billy’s 93 speed figure is competitive with Gosger (96) but trails Heart of Honor (109) and Journalism (110).
Looking Ahead to the Preakness Stakes
Pay Billy enters the 2025 Preakness Stakes as a 20-1 longshot from post 5, a decent draw for his front-running style. His pedigree, with Improbable (2020 Hollywood Gold Cup) and Harlington (Tapit lineage), suggests he can handle 1 3/16 miles, supported by his Federico Tesio win (1:52.57). His wet-track placing (3rd) offers some versatility, though less proven than Journalism or American Promise on sloppy tracks. His recent workout (4 furlongs in :49.00 at Delaware Park on May 8, 2025) indicates readiness, though slower than Goal Oriented’s :47.60.
The 8-horse Preakness field is smaller than his Federico Tesio (10 horses), favoring him compared to American Promise’s Derby struggles (19 horses). His early speed could challenge Goal Oriented or Clever Again, potentially setting up closers like Journalism, Heart of Honor, or Gosger, as seen in our Preakness Stakes analysis. His 20-1 odds make him a value play for exotic bets, especially paired with closers like Journalism (8-5) or Heart of Honor (12-1), but his lower speed figures and regional stakes focus make him a riskier win bet compared to Journalism or Goal Oriented (6-1).
