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Belmont Stakes 2016: Contenders, Odds, Analysis
- Updated: June 3, 2016
I’ve always ‘contended’ that trying to handicap the Belmont Stakes Contenders — or any race for that matter — prior to race day is a lesson in futility.
In fact, I’ve always waited to the last minute to make my bets, usually getting to the window right at post time, having dissected the race and accounting for the many variables that I consider to be of utmost importance for winning at the races.
As I see it, that’s the biggest problem bettors face with multi-race wagers like the Pick 3, 4, 5 and 6 races is not knowing the variables ahead of time and why handicapping those races in advance of making those bets requires a big bankroll in order to cover all the possibilities.
So, it’s especially difficult to make selections in advance and share the picks with The Free PPs readers when I know that the actual bets I make can and probably will be affected by the way the races are playing on race day.
For example, the selections I made for the Preakness were based on the assumption that the track would be fast. Nyquist was an easy pick on top having beaten Exaggerator four times in previous races on a fast track.
And there’s no bigger variable than the condition of the track at post time.
When the skies opened up at Pimlico on Preakness day I’ll bet the connections of Exaggerator were smiling from ear to ear even though previously they had downplayed Exaggerator’s affinity for an off-track. I know I was.
Belmont Stakes 2016 Contenders & Early Analysis
Brody’s Cause – 1st of many expected to go in the Belmontand wthat will be far back early. Beat Exaggerator at Keeneland last October berfore a 3rd place finish in the BC Juvenile won by Nyquist. Started ’16 as the favorite in the Tampa Derby and was outrun by Destin around the bullring type track. Came back with a new rider to win the Blue Grass before his 7th place finishs in the Derby. He’s 17 to 1 early and don’t see him being able to crack the superfecta.
Cherry Wine – At 17 to 1, he came rolling up the rail to grab second in the Preakness and earn his highest Brisnet speed figure 100. But that was strictly the result of his affinity for the mud having broke his maiden by 9 at Churchill in the slop last November. Only other win was an OC$75K at Gulfstream. Has been competitive throughout career but tend to think he’s just a notch below the best 3YO’s. If it rains in New York he can get another piece of the exotics but otherwise not inclined to see him liking Big Sandy.
Creator – Two wins both at Oaklawn including the Arkansas Derby when the pace fell apart in front of the closers. Was moving nicely going into the far turn in the Derby, checked hard and couldn’t recover his momentum. Gets new rider in Ortiz who wins with the best of them on the New York circuit. Not convinced he’s got what it takes to win the Belmont as a deep closer but could move up on an off-track.
Destin – Lightly raced with only 6 starts but 3 were wins. Like the fact that he broke his maiden at Belmont but that was going 7/8’s. Won back to back graded races at Tampa including the TB Derby beating out his stablemate Outwork and the aforementioned Brody’s Cause. Thought he would show more speed in the Kentucky Derby but think now that he doesn’t have the stamina to press a contested pace and be there at the end. Still gotta like his chances to go a long way in a race currently devoid of speed. Will have to wait to see what the final field is to figure his chances.
Exaggerator – Can’t take anything away from this guy who’s managed to change my mind about the way I’ll view future winners of the Delta Jackpot going into the Derby prep season. However, that race was won on a muddy track as was the Santa Anita Derby and the Preakness. But he’s a competitor who is getting better as he gets older and will deserve a break after this one. Looking at his last three races it’s obvious they’ve changed the strategy to a one-run move when going longer distances and at 1 1/2 miles expect him to be allowed to settle in somewhere in mid-pack and close faster than the deep ones. Timing will be everything for him over a fast surface but if it rains, well, he’ll be tough if he has one more in him.
Governor Malibu – New York bred came into his own after adding Lasix four back when he won a mile maiden special at Aqueduct in November. Added blinkers since then and won next two including the Tesio but was DQ’d to second behind Awesome Speed who came back over-matched in the Preakness while this guy returned to run second in the Peter Pan behind Unified who may also go in here. Trainer Clement won the ’14 running of the Belmont with Tonalist who took the Peter Pan prior. This guy looks similar on paper having enough speed to be in the race early and gets Rosario who was aboard Tonalist when he beat California Chrome.
Lani – There’s something about this guy that I like. Just wish he’d have an American rider who knows how our races are won. I’m not saying he would have won the Derby or the Preakness but I do think he could win this one with the right ride. Don’t expect him to be so far back this time and should be somewhere around Exaggerator when he makes his move. Another who improves in the mud.
Stradivari – Only 4 lifetime starts including a 4th place finish in the Preakness beaten just 4 lengths. Broke maiden by a bundle going 1 1/16 miles at Gulfstream in a race originally carded for the turf then took an ALWNW1X by 14 at Keeneland going 1/16th longer. His pops was second by 1/2 length in the 2002 Belmont behind 70 to 1 shot Sarava. This one has the same running style in a race without any speed so expect he’ll be competitive on the front end.
Suddenbreakingnews – Early pp’s has Hall of Famer Mike Smith listed as new rider replacing Quinonez. Gotta love that! Horse has talent as he was just 5 lengths off Nyquist in Derby finishing 5th. And just 2 1/2 behind Exaggerator that day. Skipped the Preakness for this one and another who comes from the clouds.
Trojan Nation – OK, so he ran second to Outwork at 80 to 1 in the Wood which gave his connections a thrill. But he’s still a maiden! Was dismal in the Derby. Has no speed and should stay in the barn, right?
Wild About Deb – Son of Eskendereya who was the early Derby favorite in 2010 but never made it to the track that day and subsequently retired. Was third in the Peter Pan behind Unified and Governor Malibu who will probably both go next Saturday. Only three starts including maiden victory at Santa Anita going 1 1/8 miles in the slop. Not Wild About Deb in here.
I’ll post the full field analysis and Wiz Capper’s selections after they draw post positions on Wednesday.
Belmont Stakes 2016 Early Odds
Exaggerator 10/11
Governor Malibu 13/2
Cherry Wine 8/1
Suddenbreakingnews 9/1
Unified 11/1
Stradivari 12/1
Creator 15/1
Destin 15/1
Brody’s Cause 17/1
Lani 18/1
Adventist 25/1
Its All Relevant 25/1
Wild About Deb 25/1
Belmont Stakes Early Past Performances
Brisnet early past performances for the 2016 Belmont Stakes contenders
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