Toyota Blue Grass Stakes Analysis & Selections

The 2016 Toyota Blue Grass Stakes at Keeneland drew a field of 14 to go the 1 1/8 mile distance for a purse of $1 million and is headed by the 5 to 2 morning line favorite Zulu who’ll be sent out by Todd Pletcher for Stonestreet Stable LLC et al.

Zulu is a 3YO son of Bernardini who has two wins and a second from three starts and gets a new rider in Javier Castellano.

Second in the morning at 4 to 1 is Brody’s Cause winner of the G1 Breeder’s Futurity at Keeneland last October when he beat Exaggerator who faces off in the Santa Anita Derby later today.

Click here to get Toyota Blue Grass free past performances courtesy of Brisnet.

Toyota Blue Grass Analysis

Lookin for a Kiss – 3YO son of Lookin At Lucky will be making only the third start of his career for new trainer Tomlinson. Broke maiden going 6F at Gulfstream at first asking then runner up at 3 to 2 (not as favorite) in an OCNW1X at Tampa. 50 to 1 today and beyond reason.
Donegal Moon – One of three that will go in here for Pletcher. Easy ALWN1X winner in last at Parx after dropping from graded company in New York all winter. Broke maiden here going 1 mile in October on front end. Led the Remsen field to the top of the stretch before fading to finish 5th behind eventual winner Mohaymen. Distance concerns.
Cherry Wine – Son of 2010 Toyota Blue Grass runner up Paddy O’Prado has a different running style than his sire who raced on the lead that day and was passed by Stately Victor at 40 to 1. Got in a bit of trouble in the Rebel and closed to hang on for fourth. Only race at Keeneland was a 1 mile maiden turf try last October in which he was blocked, bumped, and steadied. Lanerie departs Brody’s Cause for this one. Big shot from off the pace at 12 to 1.
Zulu – Probable favorite for Pletcher off two wins and a second in the G2 Fountain of Youth behind Mohaymen who returned to be finish fourth in the Florida Derby last weekend. Johnny V. stays in New York to ride Outwork for Pletcher over this guy but Castellano is capable. Speedy guy gets 1st time blinkers to go the extra 1/16 and could go all the way.
Crescent Drive – Only win at 1 1/6 mile in a race taken off the turf at Woodbine last October. Was switched to Amoss barn before a deep rallying third as the favorite in a small stakes at Sam Houston on the turf. Tries dirt for the first time and adds blinkers.
Brody’s Cause – Winner of the Breeder’s Futurity here in October and third next time out in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile behind Florida Derby winner Nyquist and was gaining on the leaders. Disappointed as favorite in the Tampa Derby after 5 month layoff in last. Toss that one. Gets a new rider in Saez and may be all he needs to take this one today.
Laoban – Maiden was runner up to Shagaf in the G3 Gotham on the Big A inner. Stretches out off the effort and should see improvement but doubt it will be enough to upset in here.
Twizz – Broke maiden in last at Fair Grounds going 6 in the mud after adding blinkers two back. Not much else to say but why?
Goats Town – Another maiden. Runs for Calumet and Lukas and has been bet down in last three at Oaklawn finishing 3rd twice and runner up last time out. Sitting on bullet move at Oaklawn on April 4 and will have to ride that out the gate to win. Another, how, why?
American Dubai – Broke maiden in a sprint at CD in first asking. DQ’d from 2nd to 3rd in next at Oaklwan on the lead every jump but ducked in at the 1/8 pole. Made the lead at the top of the stretch in the G3 Southwest but tired. Caught Cupid in Rebel and succumbed to superior runners.
Cards of Stone – NY bred son of Bustin Stones has two wins from 4 starts at shorter distances including a 13 length win at 1 mile over the Aqueduct inner vs. OCN1X as heavy favorite. Another speedy type in here from the Pletcher barn. Draws outside and will have to go with distance concerns.
Zapperini – Broke maiden two back at 1 mile 70 yards at Fair Grounds. Returned in G2 Risen Star to finish 5th behind Gun Runner who returned to take the Louisiana Derby next out. Outside post is a negative but expect improvement with the added distance and Gun Runner just might be better than the top ones in here.
Star Hill – Broke maiden two back then was 3rd in the Tampa Derby last out when rallying around the tight turns. Leparoux gave him two shots and exits for the next one.
My Man Sam – Gets new rider in Leparoux for Chad Brown who sends out probable Wood favorite Shagaf today. Broke maiden at 1 1/16 on the Big A inner by 8. Came back as favorite in next vs. Matt King Cole who enters the Wood starting gate as probable second choice. 14 hole is tough to overcome but can overcome with timely middle move.