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Home / News / Keeneland Picks – Race of the Day April 11, 2025

Keeneland Picks – Race of the Day April 11, 2025

Race of the Day Picks and Predictions Canva

Grade 1 Maker’s Mark Mile Stakes

Expert Analysis for Keeneland Race 9 – April 11, 2025

Race Details – Watch Live

  • Track: Keeneland, 1 Mile, Turf
  • Purse: $650,000
  • Grade: G1
  • Post Time: 5:16 PM ET
  • Beyer Par: 105
  • Field: 7 horses (after scratches of #5 Santorini, #9 Seminole Chief)
  • Wagers: Double, Exacta ($1 min), Trifecta ($0.50 min), Superfecta ($0.10 min)

NOTE: The analysis and predictions are for informational purposes only and there is no guarantee, implied or otherwise, for success using this prediction. Do your own research and wager responsibly. TheFreePPs.com nor any of its principals are responsible for any losses that may be incurred using this information.

Pace Outlook

Based on free DRF Classic PPs, pace figures and past performances:

  • Leaders: #8 Northern Invader (122 Early) and #7 Silent Heart (112 Early) are likely to set the pace, with Northern Invader showing consistent front-running tendencies.
  • Pressers: #6 Carl Spackler (108 Early) and #2 Funtastic Again (109 Early) can stalk close to the lead.
  • Closers: #1 Integration (66 Early, 107 Late) and #3 Trikari (82 Early, 101 Late) will sit off the pace and rally late. #4 Grand Aspen (93 Early, 87 Late) may settle mid-pack.
  • Expected Pace: Moderate to fast, with Northern Invader and Silent Heart pushing early. A contested pace could favor closers like Integration and Trikari.

Horse-by-Horse Breakdown

1. Integration (3-1 ML)

Profile: 5yo horse, Quality Road – Harmonize, Trainer: Claude McGaughey, Jockey: Lanfranco Dettori
Record: 11 starts, 5-2-1, $1,307,800, Best Beyer: 102
Turf: 11-5-2-1, Keeneland: 1-0-0-1 (3rd, 2024 Maker’s Mark Mile, 100 Beyer)
Recent Form:

  • 01/25/25, Gulfstream, Pegasus World Cup Turf (G1), 1 1/8m, 2nd (102 Beyer), rallied from 5th, drifted out late.
  • 11/09/24, Aqueduct, Red Smith (G2), 1 3/8m, 1st (95 Beyer), angled out, strong rally.
  • 09/07/24, Kentucky Downs, Turf Cup (G2), 1 1/2m, 4th (97 Beyer), lacked late punch.
    Works: Sharp, with 4f in :48.4 (1/2) on 04/04/25 at Payson.
    Pros: Loves turf, with a 102 Beyer last out in a key race (defeated runners won G3, stakes next out). Ran 3rd in this race last year, showing course affinity. Strong closer (107 Late) fits pace setup. Dettori is a top rider.
    Cons: Only one 2025 start; faces tougher field than recent wins.
    Outlook: Projects to save ground 4-5 lengths back and rally wide. A top contender if pace collapses.

2. Funtastic Again (6-1 ML)

Profile: 5yo horse, Funtastic – Repeta, Trainer: Wesley Ward, Jockey: Irad Ortiz Jr.
Record: 11 starts, 4-2-2, $428,694, Best Beyer: 100
Turf: 4-0-2-0, Keeneland: 0-0-0-0
Recent Form:

  • 09/07/24, Kentucky Downs, Mint Million (G3), 1m, 9th (84 Beyer), weakened late after stalking.
  • 05/27/24, Santa Anita, Shoemaker Mile (G1), 1m, 2nd (100 Beyer), led briefly, outfinished.
  • 03/23/24, Turfway, Kentucky Cup Classic (G3), 1 1/8m, 3rd (94 Beyer), tracked, showed late.
    Works: Solid, with 6f in 1:15 (1/4) on 03/29/25 at Keeneland.
    Pros: Gritty in G1 Shoemaker Mile (100 Beyer). Ortiz is a major upgrade. Ward’s 22% turf win rate adds confidence. Can press or stalk.
    Cons: 0-4 on turf, untested at Keeneland. Last race was flat (84 Beyer).
    Outlook: Likely sits 2nd or 3rd early. Needs turf breakthrough but has upside with Ortiz.

3. Trikari (8-1 ML)

Profile: 4yo colt, Oscar Performance – Dynamic Holiday, Trainer: H. Graham Motion, Jockey: John Velazquez
Record: 10 starts, 5-1-1, $1,323,030, Best Beyer: 98
Turf: 8-3-1-1, Keeneland: 2-0-0-0
Recent Form:

  • 10/26/24, Keeneland, Bryan Station (G3), 1m, 6th (91 Beyer), checked, traffic trouble.
  • 09/28/24, Santa Anita, City of Hope Mile (G2), 1m, 4th (96 Beyer), moved out, even finish.
  • 08/11/24, Colonial Downs, Secretariat (G2), 1m, 1st (91 Beyer), sharp late surge.
    Works: Consistent, with 5f in 1:00.3 (2/12) on 03/30/25 at Palm Meadows.
    Pros: G2 winner with a 101 Late figure. Last race was excusable (traffic). Motion’s 18% turf win rate is solid. First 2025 start could spark improvement.
    Cons: 0-2 at Keeneland, fading both times. Needs clean trip to close.
    Outlook: Mid-pack, 5-6 lengths off, rallying wide. Value play for exotics.

4. Grand Aspen (30-1 ML)

Profile: 6yo horse, Dialed In – Lady Aspen, Trainer: Jonathan Thomas, Jockey: Joel Rosario
Record: 13 starts, 2-3-1, $219,615, Best Beyer: 100
Turf: 5-1-2-0, Keeneland: 0-0-0-0
Recent Form:

  • 03/02/25, Santa Anita, OC 80k, 1m, 4th (88 Beyer), closed well late.
  • 02/08/25, Santa Anita, OC 80k, 6.5f, 4th (85 Beyer), slow start, even finish.
  • 11/29/24, Churchill, Clark (G2), 1 1/8m, 8th (65 Beyer), weakened badly.
    Works: Okay, with 4f in :48.1 (8/47) on 03/22/25 at Santa Anita.
    Pros: Showed late life in recent turf try. Rosario is reliable.
    Cons: 0-5 at 1m or shorter, 0-4 in graded stakes. Both wins at longer distances.
    Outlook: Mid-pack, struggles to quicken. Longshot for deep exotics only.

6. Carl Spackler (9-5 ML)

Profile: 5yo horse, Lope de Vega – Zindaya, Trainer: Chad Brown, Jockey: Flavien Prat
Record: 11 starts, 7-1-0, $1,608,475, Best Beyer: 106
Turf: 11-7-1-0, Keeneland: 1-1-0-0 (G1 Turf Mile, 102 Beyer)
Recent Form:

  • 11/02/24, Del Mar, BC Mile (G1), 1m, 6th (99 Beyer), faded after stalking.
  • 10/05/24, Keeneland, Turf Mile (G1), 1m, 1st (102 Beyer), drew off strongly.
  • 08/11/24, Saratoga, Fourstardave (G1), 1m, 1st (106 Beyer), clear late.
    Works: Steady, with 4f in :48.3 (2/48) on 03/09/25 at Payson.
    Pros: Classiest horse, with 7 turf wins and a 106 Beyer top. Loves Keeneland (G1 win). Versatile (108 Early, 94 Late). Brown (23% turf) and Prat (29% in 2025) are elite.
    Cons: Flat in BC Mile. Short price limits value.
    Outlook: Stalks 2nd or 3rd, poised to strike. The horse to beat.

7. Silent Heart (8-1 ML)

Profile: 4yo colt, Heart to Heart – Mega Monster, Trainer: Brian Lynch, Jockey: Luis Saez
Record: 12 starts, 4-3-4, $314,163, Best Beyer: 98
Turf: 10-3-2-4, Keeneland: 2-0-0-1
Recent Form:

  • 03/01/25, Gulfstream, Canadian Turf (G3), 1 1/16m, 3rd (94 Beyer), battled, bumped late.
  • 01/31/25, Gulfstream, OC 75k, 1m, 1st (101 Beyer), overcame trouble, strong finish.
  • 12/14/24, Gulfstream, Tropical Park Derby, 1 1/16m, 3rd (99 Beyer), led, drifted late.
    Works: Decent, with 5f in 1:00 (9/14) on 03/23/25 at Palm Meadows.
    Pros: Peaking, with a 101 Beyer last out. Stakes winner, competitive in G3. Saez fits well.
    Cons: 0-2 at Keeneland (sprints). Speed (112 Early) risks burnout if pressed.
    Outlook: Tries to wire but vulnerable late. Exotics candidate.

8. Northern Invader (4-1 ML)

Profile: 5yo gelding, Collected – Androeah, Trainer: Cherie DeVaux, Jockey: Jose Ortiz
Record: 12 starts, 3-5-1, $350,515, Best Beyer: 98
Turf: 9-3-2-1, Keeneland: 1-1-0-0
Recent Form:

  • 02/01/25, Tampa, Tampa Bay (G3), 1 1/16m, 2nd (101 Beyer), led, outfinished.
  • 07/13/24, Saratoga, Kelso (G3), 1m, 3rd (88 Beyer), awkward start, rallied.
  • 06/01/24, Churchill, Arlington (G3), 1 1/16m, 4th (90 Beyer), yielded late.
    Works: Good, with 4f in :47.4 (9/26) on 03/27/25 at Keeneland.
    Pros: Sharp form (101 Beyer last out). Versatile; can lead or rally. 1-1 at Keeneland. Ortiz and DeVaux (21% in 2025) are strong.
    Cons: No G1 wins. Speed (122 Early) could be tested by Silent Heart.
    Outlook: Sets pace or presses. Live win threat if pace is soft.

Top Picks

  1. #6 Carl Spackler: Proven G1 winner at Keeneland with top Beyers (106). Versatile and reliable.
  2. #1 Integration: Strong closer (102 Beyer last out) who ran 3rd here in 2024. Pace suits.
  3. #8 Northern Invader: Dangerous speed, fresh off a 101 Beyer. Keeneland win boosts case.
  4. #3 Trikari: Value closer with G2 credentials. Could hit board at 8-1.

Betting Plan ($50 Budget)

  1. Win Bet ($10):
  • #6 Carl Spackler ($10 at 9-5). Safest choice with G1 form.
  1. Exacta Box ($12):
  • #1, #6, #8 ($1 box, 6 combos = $12). Covers top three in any order.
  1. Trifecta Key ($12):
  • #6 with #1, #3, #8 ($1 key: 1 with 3 with 3 = $12). Banks on Carl Spackler winning, with value from Trikari.
  1. Superfecta Key ($16):
  • #6 with #1, #3, #7, #8 ($0.10 key: 1 with 4 with 4 with 4 = $16). Adds Silent Heart for depth.

Total: $10 + $12 + $12 + $16 = $50

Summary

Carl Spackler stands out with his Keeneland G1 win and class. Integration’s closing kick and Northern Invader’s speed make them serious threats. Trikari offers value for exotics. The pace should be honest, favoring tactical horses or closers. Bets balance safety with potential for a big score.

Expert Analysis for Keeneland Race 7 – April 9, 2025.