Horse racing news and analysis from TheFreePPs.com
ATTENTION: You can now access free past performances using the URL FreePPs.com.
Help the player. Help the game.
Free Past Performances
Home / Free Picks / Saratoga: 2025 Coaching Club American Oaks (G1) Analysis, Predictions, and Wagering Strategy

Saratoga: 2025 Coaching Club American Oaks (G1) Analysis, Predictions, and Wagering Strategy

Saratoga Horse Racing Blog Header Canva

The Grade 1 Coaching Club American Oaks Invitational, run at 1 1/8 miles on dirt at Saratoga, features a competitive field of six three-year-old fillies vying for a $500,000 purse. Using the provided free past performances, old-school handicapping expertise, and our proprietary handicapping algorithm, which weighs Composite Rating, Performance Ratings, Pace Benchmarks, class, pace, trainer/jockey stats, and recent form, we provide our analysis, free predictions, and wagering strategies for the race.

SaratogaRace 10Saturday, July 19Post: 5:38 PM ET
Coaching Club American Oaks Invitational (G1)PURSE: $500,000
Dirt1 1/8 Miles3-Year-Old Fillies
#Horse/OddsJockeyTrainer
1
Immersive8-5M. FrancoB. Cox
2
Sweet Seraphine8-1J. OrtizC. DeVaux
3
Scottish Lassie9-2J. RosarioJ. Albreu
4
Take Charge Milady9-2K. CarmoucheK. McPeek
5
Dry Powder12-1J. LezcanoC. Summers
6
La Cara2-1D. DavisM. Casse

Race Overview

  • Distance: 1 1/8 miles (Dirt)
  • Purse: $500,000
  • Field Size: 6 fillies
  • Post Time: 5:38 PM ET
  • Key Pace Benchmarks: Early Pace (92/100), Late Pace (91/100)
  • Wagering Options: Exacta ($1), Trifecta ($0.50), Superfecta ($0.10), Double ($1), Pick 3 ($1)

Handicapping Analysis

1. Immersive (PP1, 122 lbs, 7-5 ML)

  • Composite Rating: 144.3 (1st)
  • Performance Ratings: 99 (Career), 85 (2025), 99 (2024)
  • Recent Form: 4-1-0 in 5 starts, $1,657,700 earned. Won BC Juvenile Fillies (G1) and Alcibiades (G1) in 2024, second in Monomoy Girl (175k) in 2025 debut.
  • Pace Profile: Early/Presser (E/P 5) – Versatile, can press or stalk.
  • Trainer/Jockey: Brad Cox (27% win in 2025, 24% in graded stakes) and Manuel Franco (20% with routes, 15% with Cox last 60 days).
  • Strengths: Highest career Performance Rating (99), sharp 5f workout (Jul-12), eligible to improve in second start off layoff. Cox’s shipper stats (27% win, 61% ITM) are strong.
  • Weaknesses: Disappointing as favorite in last race, beaten by Take Charge Milady, with a below-average Performance Rating (85).
  • Algorithm Score: 92/100 – Top-rated due to class, speed, and trainer stats, though recent loss raises slight concerns.

2. Sweet Seraphine (PP2, 118 lbs, 8-1 ML)

  • Composite Rating: 130.6 (5th)
  • Performance Ratings: 86 (Career), 86 (2025), 80 (2024)
  • Recent Form: 2-0-1 in 3 starts, $144,505 earned. Won Wilton (125k) at 1 mile in last start.
  • Pace Profile: Sustained (S 3) – Benefits from a fast pace.
  • Trainer/Jockey: Cherie DeVaux (21% win in 2025) and Jose Ortiz (25% in 2025, 37% with DeVaux lastF last 60 days).
  • Strengths: Won last race, strong trainer/jockey combo (2-0-0 last 14 days), third off layoff (22% win for DeVaux). Purchased for $900k, indicating high expectations.
  • Weaknesses: Moves up in class, low Performance Ratings (82-86 range), unproven at 1 1/8 miles.
  • Algorithm Score: 78/100 – Competitive but outclassed by top contenders in speed and experience.

3. Scottish Lassie (PP3, 122 lbs, 5-1 ML)

  • Composite Rating: 138.0 (3rd)
  • Performance Ratings: 97 (Career), 97 (2025), 92 (2024)
  • Recent Form: 1-0-3 in 5 starts, $402,560 earned. Third in Acorn (G1) last out, fourth in BC Juvenile Fillies (G1).
  • Pace Profile: Early/Presser (E/P 4) – Can lead or track close to the pace.
  • Trainer/Jockey: Jorge Abreu (21% win in 2025) and Joel Rosario (19% with routes).
  • Strengths: Consistent (3rd in last two starts), sharp 5f workout (Jul-06), solid at Saratoga (0-0-2 in 2 starts). Dam’s stats suggest stamina (100% 2yo winners).
  • Weaknesses: Poor graded stakes trainer record (5% wins in 38 starts), unproven at winning Grade 1s.
  • Algorithm Score: 85/100 – Strong contender for the board but may lack the closing kick to win.

4. Take Charge Milady (PP4, 118 lbs, 6-1 ML)

  • Composite Rating: 134.8 (4th)
  • Performance Ratings: 91 (Career), 91 (2025), 79 (2024)
  • Recent Form: 3-2-0 in 8 starts, $538,669 earned. Won Monomoy Girl (175k) last out, defeating Immersive.
  • Pace Profile: Presser (P 3) – Stalker who can rally late.
  • Trainer/Jockey: Kenneth McPeek (16% win in 2025) and Kendrick Carmouche (25% with routes).
  • Strengths: Won last race, sharp 4f workout (Jul-12), upset Immersive in last start. McPeek’s 22% win rate in 2025 is solid.
  • Weaknesses: Moves up in class, poor Performance Ratings in last two starts (86, 70), best rating (91) below average winning speed.
  • Algorithm Score: 82/100 – Upset potential but inconsistent ratings are a concern.

5. Dry Powder (PP5, 118 lbs, 12-1 ML)

  • Composite Rating: 129.8 (6th)
  • Performance Ratings: 88 (Career), 88 (2025)
  • Recent Form: 1-2-0 in 3 starts, $84,600 earned. Second in Wilton (125k) last out.
  • Pace Profile: Early (E 8) – Likely to set or press the pace.
  • Trainer/Jockey: Chad Summers (19% win in 2025) and Jose Lezcano (24% with early types).
  • Strengths: Sharp 5f workout (Jul-11), decent early pace (E1/E2: 93/92 in last), Summers’ 20% win rate with limited starts.
  • Weaknesses: Low Performance Ratings (82-88 range), beaten by weaker in last race, poor graded stakes trainer record (8% wins in 13 starts).
  • Algorithm Score: 75/100 – Likely to fade due to limited stamina and class.

6. La Cara (PP6, 122 lbs, 2-1 ML)

  • Composite Rating: 142.1 (2nd)
  • Performance Ratings: 101 (Career), 101 (2025), 91 (2024)
  • Recent Form: 5-2-0 in 11 starts, $1,156,083 earned. Won Acorn (G1) last out at 1 1/8 miles on sloppy track.
  • Pace Profile: Early (E 8) – Front-runner with strong early speed.
  • Trainer/Jockey: Mark Casse (16% win in 2025) and Dylan Davis (20% with early types).
  • Strengths: Highest last race Performance Rating (101), proven at this distance and track (Acorn), consistent in graded stakes (5 wins in 11 starts). Strong at Saratoga (2-0-0 in 3 starts).
  • Weaknesses: Faces tougher competition, pace pressure from Dry Powder could challenge her.
  • Algorithm Score: 90/100 – Top contender with proven class and track affinity.

Pace Scenario

The race features two early speed types: Dry Powder (Early 8) and La Cara (Early 8), likely to set a brisk pace aligning with Early Pace Benchmarks (~92/100). Immersive (E/P 5) and Scottish Lassie (E/P 4) can stalk close behind, while Sweet Seraphine (S 3) and Take Charge Milady (P 3) will rally from mid-pack or farther back. A moderately fast pace favors versatile runners like Immersive or stalkers like Take Charge Milady if the leaders tire.

Predictions

Based on our algorithm, which prioritizes Composite Rating, Performance Ratings, class, and trainer/jockey stats, the top contenders are:

  1. Immersive (PP1) – Despite her last loss, her class (BC Juvenile Fillies winner), top Composite Rating (144.3), and Cox’s strong stats make her the horse to beat. Second off layoff should see improvement.
  2. La Cara (PP6) – Proven at this distance and track with a 101 Performance Rating. Her front-running style suits Saratoga, but she needs to hold off Immersive.
  3. Scottish Lassie (PP3) – Consistent and likely to hit the board, but her lack of Grade 1 wins and weaker trainer stats in stakes races lower her win probability.
  4. Take Charge Milady (PP4) – Upset potential after beating Immersive, but inconsistent Performance Ratings and class jump are concerns.

Wagering Strategy

With a small field, focus on value in exotics while keeping bets disciplined. The recommended wagers align with the algorithm’s top picks and account for the $1 Exacta, $0.50 Trifecta, $0.10 Superfecta, and $1 Daily Double/Pick 3 options.

  • $1 Exacta Box: 1-6 ($2)
    • Immersive and La Cara are the class of the field and likely to finish 1-2.
  • $0.50 Trifecta Key: 1 / 3-4-6 / 2-3-4-6 ($9)
    • Key Immersive to win, with Scottish Lassie, Take Charge Milady, and La Cara for second, and all but Dry Powder for third.
  • $0.10 Superfecta Key: 1 / 3-4-6 / 2-3-4-6 / 2-3-4-6 ($3.60)
    • Key Immersive to win, with Scottish Lassie, Take Charge Milady, and La Cara in the next two spots, and Sweet Seraphine included for fourth.
  • $1 Daily Double: 1-6 / 1-3-5 (Race 11 top contenders) ($6)
    • Pair Immersive and La Cara with top contenders in Race 11 (assuming typical Saratoga stakes contenders).
  • $1 Pick 3: 1-6 / 1-3-5 / 2-4-7 (Races 10-12) ($18)
    • Use Immersive and La Cara in Race 10, top contenders in Race 11, and likely favorites in Race 12.

Total Investment: $38.60

Conclusion

Immersive is the top pick due to her class, Composite Rating, and trainer edge, with La Cara as a strong rival given her recent form and track affinity. Scottish Lassie and Take Charge Milady are viable for exotics, while Sweet Seraphine and Dry Powder are less likely to contend for the win. The wagering strategy focuses on Immersive and La Cara in key positions to maximize value in a short field.

Disclaimer: Gambling involves risk. Bet responsibly. Picks are based on free past performances handicapping, historical data, and our proprietary algorithm. TheFreePPs.com provides links to publicly available racing data and is not affiliated with linked sites. All wagering should be done responsibly. TheFreePPs.com is not responsible for losses incurred using this information.