Saratoga: De La Rose Stakes Analysis, Picks, Free PPs

The De La Rose Stakes, a $135,000 non-graded stakes race for fillies and mares four years and older, will be run at 1 mile on Saratoga’s inner turf on opening day, July 10, 2025. The race offers Exacta ($1), Trifecta ($0.50), Superfecta ($0.10), Double ($1), Pick 3 ($1), and Pick 6 ($1) wagers.

Race Overview and Pace Scenario

Saratoga’s De La Rose Stakes is a 1-mile turf race for fillies and mares who haven’t won a graded stakes in 2024-25. The field includes eight main entries and two Main Track Only (MTO) runners, Weigh the Risks and Maggy’s Palace, who will only run if the race moves to dirt. Given the turf designation and Saratoga’s typical conditions, let’s focus on the turf runners unless otherwise noted.

The BRIS Speed figures suggest a moderately fast early pace and a need for solid closing speed. Horses with strong late pace ratings (90+ in recent races) and competitive turf speed figures (90+ BRIS) will have an edge, especially those with tactical speed or proven closing ability. The inner turf at Saratoga often favors horses who can sit close to the pace or rally from mid-pack, as a hot early pace can set up for closers.

Horse-by-Horse Analysis

1. Alluring Angel (6/1, Trainer: Mott, Jockey: Alvarado)
• Pros: Drops in class from a G3 (Noble Damsel). Strong speed figure in last win at BAQ (1m, turf, June 2024). Hot trainer/jockey combo (3-1-1 in last 14 days). Sharp recent workout (4F, :48.4, July 3). Mott excels with first starts after a layoff (19% win, +0.18 ROI).
• Cons: Off 9+ months, which could affect sharpness. Modest 8-3-1-1 lifetime record and 8th-ranked power rating. Only one prior Saratoga start (win).
• Pace/Running Style: Stalker. Likely to sit mid-pack, 4-6 lengths off the pace, and rally late. Good late pace figure in last start suggests closing ability.
• Concerns: Long layoff may lead to rustiness, and lower power rating indicates she faces tougher competition.
2. Les Reys (9/2, Trainer: Clement, Jockey: Rosario)
• Pros: Drops from G2 (Valley View, October 2024). Won listed stakes at BAQ (1m, turf, September 2024). Clement’s 25% win rate in non-graded stakes is strong. Proven at 1m (3 wins).
• Cons: Off 8+ months, which may impact form. Poor jockey win rate this meet (6%). Below-average speed figures. 7th-ranked power rating.
• Pace/Running Style: Presser. Will track 2-4 lengths off the lead, relying on stamina. Late Pace in last win shows closing kick.
• Concerns: Long layoff and low speed figures make her vulnerable against faster rivals.
3. Deep Satin (7/2, Trainer: DeVaux, Jockey: Ortiz)
• Pros: Top power rating. High speed figures in last two starts, including a dead-heat win in listed Virginia Oaks (1 1/16m, turf, September 2024). Ortiz is hot (7-5-1 in last 7 days, 21% win rate). Drops from G3 (Mint Julep, June 2025). Eligible to improve in third start off layoff (trainer 21% win, +0.41 ROI). Fastest turf speed among starters.
• Cons: Failed as favorite in last two starts, suggesting vulnerability under pressure. Limited Saratoga experience (1 win).
• Pace/Running Style: Can press the pace or stalk 1-3 lengths back. Ratings indicate versatility.
• Concerns: Must overcome favorite failures, but high speed and class edge make her a top contender.
4. Heredia (3/1, Trainer: Motion, Jockey: Franco)
• Pros: Second-highest power rating. Drops from G3 Beaugay (May 2025, 3rd place). Strong European form (G3 win, 2023). Motion’s 20% win rate in non-graded stakes. Sharp workout (4F, :48.4, June 30).
• Cons: Off 2+ months, which could dull sharpness. Poor jockey win rate this meet (7%). No Saratoga starts.
• Pace/Running Style: Stalker. Sits mid-pack or further back, relying on a strong late kick.
• Concerns: Lack of Saratoga experience and low jockey win rate are drawbacks, but class and form are solid.
5. Edict (8/1, Trainer: Donk, Jockey: Velazquez)
• Pros: Drops from G/3 (Beaugay, May 2025, 2nd place). Eligible to improve in third start off layoff (trainer 15% win). Velazquez’s 21% win rate adds reliability. Competitive at 1m (3 wins on turf).
• Cons: Poor career speed figures. No wins in 2024 or 2025 (0-4). Donk’s 0% win rate this meet (0-17). Only one Saratoga start (no wins).
• Pace/Running Style: Can lead or press early, but late pace figures suggests she’s best stalking 2-4 lengths off the pace.
• Concerns: Low speed figures and trainer’s poor meet performance make her a risky win candidate, though she could hit the board.
6. On Command (20/1, Trainer: Green, Jockey: Davis)
• Pros: Drops from G2 (Intercontinental, June 2025). Won listed License Fee (6f, turf, May 2025). Green’s 33% win rate in non-graded stakes (small sample, +5.60 ROI). Strong sprint-to-route stats (25% win).
• Cons: Longshot odds reflect weaker form. Poor jockey win rate (0% this meet). Only one turf win in four starts. 9th-ranked power rating.
• Pace/Running Style: Likely to set or contest the pace, but late pace numbers suggests she may fade at 1m.
• Concerns: Early speed could compromise her at this distance, and low speed figures make her an exotics-only play.
7. Way to Be Marie (8/1, Trainer: Atras, Jockey: Ortiz Jr.)
• Pros: Tied for highest last-race speed (G3 Gallorette, May 2025). Drops from G3. Atras’s 25% win rate in non-graded stakes. Ortiz Jr.’s 18% turf win rate and 13% meet win rate. Strong 3-3-2 record in 11 turf starts.
• Cons: Off 54 days, which could affect sharpness. Failed as favorite in last race. No Saratoga starts.
• Pace/Running Style: Versatile, can press or stalk 1-3 lengths off the lead. Late pace figures shows closing ability.
• Concerns: Lack of Saratoga experience is a minor concern, but high speed and class make her a serious contender.
8. In Our Time (4/1, Trainer: Joseph Jr., Jockey: Saez)
• Pros: Tied for highest last-race speed (listed Sand Springs, March 2025). Fastest turf speed among starters (G3 Honey Fox, March 2025). Joseph’s 27% win rate when beating favorites. Two Saratoga starts (1 win).
• Cons: Off 3+ months, which may dull form. Failed as favorite in last two starts. Saez’s 10% meet win rate is modest.
• Pace/Running Style: Will set or press the pace, with late pace figures indicating she can sustain speed at 1m.
• Concerns: Layoff and favorite failures are worries, but high speed and course experience keep her in the mix.
9. Weigh the Risks (6/5, Trainer: Brown, Jockey: Franco, MTO)
• Pros: Strong dirt form (win at Aqueduct, January 2025). Brown’s 24% win rate in non-graded stakes and 29% with this jockey (last 60 days). Hot trainer/jockey combo (3-2-1 in last 14 days). Two Saratoga starts (1 win).
• Cons: MTO, only runs if race moves to dirt. Failed as favorite in last race. Poor jockey win rate this meet (7%). Modest turf form (1 win in 6 starts).
• Pace/Running Style: Can lead or stalk on dirt. Turf pace less reliable.
• Concerns: Turf form is weaker, and MTO status limits relevance unless race switches surfaces.
10. Maggy’s Palace (5/1, Trainer: Ryerson, Jockey: TBA, MTO)
• Pros: Won last race (6.5f, dirt, Saratoga, June 2025). Ryerson’s 50% meet win rate (small sample). Strong dirt form (4-4-1 in 14 starts).
• Cons: MTO, only runs if race moves to dirt. Poor turf record (0-1). Low power rating. Moves up in class. No jockey assigned.
• Pace/Running Style: Presser. Tracks 1-3 lengths off on dirt, but turf pace is untested.
• Concerns: Poor turf experience and MTO status make her irrelevant unless race moves to dirt.

Pace Scenario and Race Dynamics

The pace is likely to be set by In Our Time and On Command, both early-speed types. Edict could press close behind. This sets up a moderately fast early pace, which may soften the leaders late, favoring stalkers and closers like Deep Satin, Way to Be Marie , Heredia, and Alluring Angel, who have late pace ratings between the range of 83-97. The inner turf’s tendency to reward tactical speed or mid-pack runners supports these horses, especially those with strong BRIS Speed.

If the race switches to dirt (unlikely but possible), Weigh the Risks and Maggy’s Palace become relevant, with Weigh the Risks’ speed and Brown’s training edge making her the MTO favorite.

Predicted Order of Finish

1. Deep Satin: Top power rating, fastest turf speed, and strong late pace. Ortiz’s hot hand and DeVaux’s 26% non-graded stakes win rate make her the horse to beat. Third start off layoff boosts her chances.
2. Way to Be Marie: Tied for highest last-race speed, proven at 1m (3 turf wins), and Ortiz Jr.’s 18% turf win rate. Atras’s 25% non-graded stakes record adds confidence. Strong closer.
3. In Our Time: Fastest career turf speed, solid Saratoga form (1 win), and Joseph’s 27% win rate against favorites. Early speed could hold for a piece, despite layoff concerns.
4. Heredia: High power rating, G3-placed form, and Motion’s 20% non-graded stakes record. Late Pace suits the race shape, but lack of Saratoga starts and Franco’s 7% win rate temper expectations.

Wagering Strategy ($50 Budget)

With a $50 budget, we’ll focus on value and coverage, prioritizing Deep Satin and Way to Be Marie as win candidates, with In Our Time and Heredia for exotics. The strategy balances win bets with Exacta, Trifecta, and Double wagers, considering the $1 Exacta, $0.50 Trifecta, $0.10 Superfecta, and $1 Double minimums.

• $10 Win on Deep Satin (7/2): High speed, top Prime Power, and strong connections make her a likely winner. ($10)
• $1 Exacta Box: Deep Satin, Way to Be Marie, In Our Time (3×3): Covers top three picks in any order. (3x2x$1 = $6)
• $0.50 Trifecta Key: Deep Satin / Way to Be Marie, In Our Time, Heredia / Way to Be Marie, In Our Time, Heredia, Alluring Angel: Keys Deep Satin to win, with strong contenders for second and third, plus Alluring Angel for value. (1x3x4x$0.50 = $6)
• $0.10 Superfecta Key: Deep Satin / Way to Be Marie, In Our Time, Heredia, Alluring Angel / Way to Be Marie, In Our Time, Heredia, Alluring Angel / Way to Be Marie, In Our Time, Heredia, Alluring Angel, Edict: Deep Satin to win, with five horses for depth. (1x4x4x5x$0.10 = $8)
• $1 Double: Deep Satin, Way to Be Marie / All runners in Race 6: Covers top two picks to win the De La Rose, paired with a wide net in Race 6 for the Daily Double. (2x10x$1 = $20, assuming 10 runners in Race 6).

Total: $10 + $6 + $6 + $8 + $20 = $50

Contingency (if race moves to dirt): Replace Deep Satin with Weigh the Risks in all bets, as her 96 BRIS Speed and Brown’s 24% non-graded stakes record make her the MTO favorite.

Key Takeaways

The De La Rose Stakes favors Deep Satin due to her superior speed, top power rating, and strong closing ability. Way to Be Marie and In Our Time are dangerous with high recent speed and proven turf form. Heredia adds class but lacks Saratoga experience. The pace should benefit stalkers and closers, with Deep Satin’s versatility giving her the edge. For exotics, include Alluring Angel for value due to her trainer’s layoff success. If the race moves to dirt, Weigh the Risks becomes the top pick.

Related Posts

• 
  2026 Sam F. Davis Stakes Preview
• 
  Nearly Dominates 2026 Holy Bull Stakes at Gulfstream Park
• 
  Champion Ted Noffey Ruled Out of 2026 Kentucky Derby with Bone Bruising