Del Mar: 2025 Oceanside Stakes Analysis, Predictions, Free PPs

The $100,000 Caesars Sportsbook Oceanside Stakes, a 1-mile turf race for three-year-olds at Del Mar, kicks off the 2025 Summer Meet with a field of ten non-winners of a $50,000 sweepstakes at a mile or over in 2025. Using free past performances, our experienced handicapping angles, and a proprietary handicapping algorithm, which weighs Composite Rating, Performance Ratings, Pace Benchmarks, class, pace, trainer/jockey stats, and recent form, we provide our analysis, predictions, and wagering strategies for the race.

Race Overview

• Distance: 1 mile (Turf, rail at 12 feet)
• Purse: $100,000
• Field Size: 10 horses
• Post Time: 5:30 PM PT
• Key Pace Benchmarks: Early Pace (87/90), Late Pace (85/90)
• Wagering Options: $1 Exacta, $2 Quinella, $0.50 Trifecta, $0.10 Superfecta, $2 Rolling Double, $3 Late Pick Three, $2 WPS Parlay, $1 3×3

Handicapping Analysis

1. Cali Cat (PP1, 120 lbs, 12-1 ML)

• Composite Rating: 144.0 (2nd)
• Performance Ratings: 88 (Life), 88 (2025), 81 (2024)
• Recent Form: 2-3-0 in 7 starts, $139,800 earned. Second in Snow Chief (125k) last out at 1 1/8 miles.
• Pace Profile: Early/Presser (E/P 6) – Can stalk or press the pace.
• Trainer/Jockey: John Sadler (15% win turf, 22% 2025) and Vincent Cheminaud (12% turf).
• Strengths: Strong turf record (2-3-0 in 6 starts), won at Del Mar (1m, 81 rating), and rail post wins at 21%. Sadler’s 18% win rate in non-graded stakes and recent 5f workout (Jul-12) are positives.
• Weaknesses: 55-day layoff, modest Performance Ratings (81-88), and unproven in graded stakes.
• Algorithm Score: 85/100 – Competitive but needs improvement to win at this level.

2. Incanto (PP2, 120 lbs, 15-1 ML)

• Composite Rating: 126.0 (9th)
• Performance Ratings: 90 (Life), 87 (2025), 90 (2024)
• Recent Form: 2-2-4 in 12 starts, $138,160 earned. Third in Cinema (100k) last out.
• Pace Profile: Early/Presser (E/P 5) – Versatile, can stalk or press.
• Trainer/Jockey: Peter Eurton (17% win 2025, 20% 46-90 days away) and Tiago Pereira (9% turf, 25% with Eurton).
• Strengths: Eurton’s 22% win rate in non-graded stakes and 46-90 day layoff stats (20%) are strong. Consistent in-the-money finishes (8/12).
• Weaknesses: Low Composite Rating, modest Performance Ratings (84-90), and over 2-month layoff.
• Algorithm Score: 78/100 – Likely to struggle against stronger contenders.

3. Iron Man Cal (PP3, 124 lbs, 9-5 ML)

• Composite Rating: 157.0 (1st)
• Performance Ratings: 97 (Life), 89 (2025), 97 (2024)
• Pace Profile: Early/Presser (E/P 4) – Stalks close to the pace.
• Recent Form: 2-1-0 in 5 starts, $288,730 earned. Sixth in American Turf (G1) last out, second in Zuma Beach (G3) via disqualification.
• Trainer/Jockey: Philip D’Amato (18% turf, 21% non-graded stakes) and Antonio Fresu (17% turf, 31% with D’Amato).
• Strengths: Highest Composite Rating (157.0), top turf Performance Rating (97), and proven at Del Mar (1-1-0 in 3 starts). Drops in class from G1.
• Weaknesses: Over 2-month layoff, disappointed in last start (89 rating).
• Algorithm Score: 92/100 – Top contender with class and track affinity.

4. Lyle The Crocodile (PP4, 120 lbs, 6-1 ML)

• Composite Rating: 131.9 (7th)
• Performance Ratings: 89 (Life), 89 (2025)
• Recent Form: 2-1-1 in 9 starts, $19,965 earned. Fourth in OC100k last out.
• Pace Profile: Early (E 6) – Likely to set or press the pace.
• Trainer/Jockey: Philip D’Amato (18% turf, 21% non-graded stakes) and Umberto Rispoli (23% turf, 40% with D’Amato).
• Strengths: Eligible to improve second off layoff (19% win for D’Amato), strong jockey/trainer combo, and Performance Rating (89) close to average winning speed.
• Weaknesses: Beaten by weaker last out, modest earnings, and unproven at Del Mar.
• Algorithm Score: 82/100 – Could hit the board but needs a step up to win.

5. Artislas (PP5, 124 lbs, 4-1 ML)

• Composite Rating: 138.5 (3rd)
• Performance Ratings: 91 (Life), 88 (2025), 91 (2024)
• Recent Form: 3-0-2 in 7 starts, $191,500 earned. Fifth in Cinema (100k) last out.
• Pace Profile: Early/Presser (E/P 4) – Stalks close to the pace.
• Trainer/Jockey: Jeff Mullins (19% turf, 27% 2025) and Juan Hernandez (16% turf, 25% 2025).
• Strengths: Won Zuma Beach (G3) in 2024 (91 rating), strong at Del Mar (2-0-0 in 3 starts), and Mullins’ 18% win rate in non-graded stakes. Hernandez’s 25% win rate in 2025 is a plus.
• Weaknesses: Over 2-month layoff, modest last two starts (83-88 ratings).
• Algorithm Score: 88/100 – Strong contender with proven class.

6. Kale’s Angel (PP6, 120 lbs, 12-1 ML)

• Composite Rating: 136.0 (5th)
• Performance Ratings: 97 (Life), 85 (2025), 97 (2024)
• Pace Profile: Early/Presser (E/P 8) – Likely to press or lead.
• Recent Form: 4-0-2 in 10 starts, $418,680 earned. Eighth in Maxfield (250k) on dirt last out.
• Trainer/Jockey: Peter Miller (12% 2025, 14% non-graded stakes) and Armando Ayuso (16% turf).
• Strengths: Miller’s hot form (4-1-0 last 14 days), high Performance Rating (97 in 2024), and won at Del Mar (5f turf). Dirt-to-turf switch (13% win for Miller) could help.
• Weaknesses: Poor recent form (81-85 ratings), unproven at 1 mile on turf.
• Algorithm Score: 80/100 – Longshot with potential but needs a rebound.

7. Game Warrior (PP7, 120 lbs, 8-1 ML)

• Composite Rating: 136.1 (4th)
• Performance Ratings: 90 (Life), 90 (2025), 83 (2024)
• Recent Form: 1-1-2 in 10 starts, $99,075 earned. Third in OC100k last out.
• Pace Profile: Presser (P 1) – Rallies from mid-pack.
• Trainer/Jockey: Peter Miller (12% 2025, 14% non-graded stakes) and Hector Berrios (23% turf).
• Strengths: Miller’s hot form (4-1-0 last 14 days), sharp 5f workout (Jul-12), and blinkers on (10% win for Miller). Performance Rating (90) is competitive.
• Weaknesses: Beaten by weaker last out, failed as favorite, and modest Del Mar record (1-0-1 in 3 starts).
• Algorithm Score: 83/100 – Viable for exotics but needs improvement.

8. Day and Age (PP8, 122 lbs, 6-1 ML)

• Composite Rating: 132.5 (6th)
• Performance Ratings: 91 (Life), 91 (2025), 86 (2024)
• Recent Form: 2-1-0 in 6 starts, $87,640 earned. Won OC100k (1m turf) last out.
• Pace Profile: Early/Presser (E/P 6) – Can stalk or press.
• Trainer/Jockey: Richard Mandella (17% turf, 31% non-graded stakes) and Mike Smith (19% turf, 33% with Mandella).
• Strengths: Highest last race Performance Rating (91), won at 1 mile on turf, and Mandella’s 31% win rate in non-graded stakes. Strong trainer/jockey combo.
• Weaknesses: Moves up in class, untested at Del Mar, and modest career earnings.
• Algorithm Score: 87/100 – Dangerous contender with recent form.

9. Mala (PP9, 122 lbs, 20-1 ML)

• Composite Rating: 113.4 (10th)
• Performance Ratings: 79 (Life), 79 (2024)
• Recent Form: 2-1-1 in 5 starts, $77,903 earned. Second in Bay Meadows Juvenile (75k) on dirt last out.
• Pace Profile: Presser (P 5) – Rallies from mid-pack.
• Trainer/Jockey: Steve Sherman (17% 2025, 19% first on grass) and William Antongeorgi III (5% turf).
• Strengths: Won last race via disqualification, Sherman’s 19% win rate first on grass, and dam’s turf success (3 turf winners) suggests potential.
• Weaknesses: Over 7-month layoff, low Performance Ratings (69-79), never raced on turf, and lowest Composite Rating (113.4).
• Algorithm Score: 72/100 – Longshot with significant hurdles.

10. Bodi Zafa (PP10, 122 lbs, 15-1 ML)

• Composite Rating: 130.8 (8th)
• Performance Ratings: 88 (Life), 88 (2025), 73 (2024)
• Recent Form: 4-2-0 in 7 starts, $111,590 earned. Second in Cinema (100k) last out.
• Pace Profile: Early/Presser (E/P 6) – Can stalk or press.
• Trainer/Jockey: Jerry Hollendorfer (0% 2025, 6% non-graded stakes) and Kazushi Kimura (9% turf).
• Strengths: Strong recent form (3-1-0 in 2025), competitive Performance Rating (88), and consistent at 1 mile on turf.
• Weaknesses: Over 2-month layoff, Hollendorfer’s poor 2025 stats (0% win), and untested at Del Mar.
• Algorithm Score: 80/100 – Upset potential but trainer stats are a concern.

Pace Scenario

The race features early speed from Kale’s Angel (E/P 8) and Lyle The Crocodile (E 6), likely setting a moderate pace aligning with Early Pace Benchmarks (~87/90). Cali Cat (E/P 6), Iron Man Cal (E/P 4), Artislas (E/P 4), Day and Age (E/P 6), and Bodi Zafa (E/P 6) can stalk, while Game Warrior (P 1) and Mala (P 5) rally from farther back. A moderate pace favors stalkers like Iron Man Cal and Artislas, with closers like Game Warrior benefiting if the pace quickens.

Predictions

Based on our algorithm, which prioritizes Composite Rating, Performance Ratings, class, and trainer/jockey stats:

1. Iron Man Cal (PP3) – Highest Composite Rating (157.0), proven at Del Mar, and drops in class from G1. Top Performance Rating (97) and D’Amato’s stats make him the horse to beat.
2. Artislas (PP5) – Strong Del Mar record (2-0-0 in 3 starts), G3 winner, and Hernandez/Mullins combo is potent. Competitive Performance Rating (91).
3. Day and Age (PP8) – Recent 1-mile turf win (91 rating), Mandella’s 31% win rate in non-graded stakes, and Smith’s experience make him a threat.
4. Cali Cat (PP1) – Rail post and Sadler’s stats are positives, but modest ratings and layoff lower his win chances.

Wagering Strategy

With a competitive nine-horse field, focus on value in exotics and leverage the top contenders. Recommended wagers align with the algorithm’s picks and account for the available betting options.

• $1 Exacta Box: 3-5-8 ($6)
  • Iron Man Cal, Artislas, and Day and Age are the top three in Composite Rating and recent form.
• $0.50 Trifecta Key: 3 / 1-5-8 / 1-4-5-7-8-10 ($7.50)
  • Key Iron Man Cal to win, with Cali Cat, Artislas, and Day and Age for second, and add Lyle The Crocodile, Game Warrior, and Bodi Zafa for third.
• $0.10 Superfecta Key: 3 / 1-5-8 / 1-4-5-7-8-10 / 1-4-5-7-8-10 ($3)
  • Key Iron Man Cal, with Cali Cat, Artislas, and Day and Age for second, and broader coverage for third and fourth.
• $2 Rolling Double: 3-5-8 / 1-4-6 (Race 2 top contenders) ($18)
  • Pair Iron Man Cal, Artislas, and Day and Age with likely favorites in Race 2.
• $3 Late Pick Three: 3-5-8 / 1-4-6 / 2-5-7 (Races 1-3) ($27)
  • Use Iron Man Cal, Artislas, and Day and Age in Race 1, top contenders in Race 2, and favorites in Race 3.

Total Investment: $61.50

Conclusion

Iron Man Cal is the top pick due to his class, Composite Rating, and Del Mar success, with Artislas and Day and Age as strong contenders for their recent form and trainer stats. Cali Cat and Game Warrior are viable for exotics, while Kale’s Angel, Lyle The Crocodile, Incanto, Mala, and Bodi Zafa face challenges. The wagering strategy emphasizes Iron Man Cal while including value plays in a competitive field.

Disclaimer: Gambling involves risk. Bet responsibly. Picks are based on free past performances handicapping, historical data, and our proprietary algorithm. TheFreePPs.com provides links to publicly available racing data and is not affiliated with linked sites. All wagering should be done responsibly. TheFreePPs.com is not responsible for losses incurred using this information.

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