Saratoga: 2025 Shuvee Stakes Analysis, Predictions, Free PPs

The Grade 2 Shuvee Stakes, set for July 18, 2025, at Saratoga, is a prestigious 1 1/8-mile race for fillies and mares four years and older, with a purse of $200,000.

Race Overview

• Distance: 1 1/8 miles (Dirt)
• Purse: $200,000
• Field: 7 fillies and mares
• Weights: 124 lbs (with allowances: 2 lbs for non-winners of a Grade 1 or 2 in 2024-25; 4 lbs for non-winners of a sweepstakes in 2025)
• Key Factors: Recent form, speed figures, class level, pace dynamics, and Saratoga experience

Contender Analysis

1. Sidamara (120 lbs, Junior Alvarado, Trainer: William Mott)

• 2025 Record: 1 start, 0-0-0, 95 speed figure
• Career: 6 starts, 2-2-0, $219,435, best speed 95
• Strengths: Strong maiden and allowance wins in 2024 (speed figures 93, 80). Showed closing ability in her allowance win at Churchill Downs. Recent workouts at Saratoga are sharp (e.g., 4F in :48.50 on June 2).
• Weaknesses: Limited stakes experience, with a poor showing in the Grade 1 Cotillion (8th, 84 speed figure). No starts at Saratoga or at 1 1/8 miles. Lightly raced in 2025.
• Pace Profile: Closer, likely to sit off the pace and make a late run.
• Evaluation: Sidamara’s lack of graded stakes success and distance experience makes her a risky contender. Her closing style could benefit if the pace is hot, but she faces tougher competition here.

2. Gun Song (124 lbs, John Velazquez, Trainer: Mark Hennig)

• 2025 Record: 3 starts, 0-1-1, 100 speed figure
• Career: 14 starts, 4-5-2, $766,220, best speed 102
• Strengths: Proven at 1 1/8 miles, with a win in the 2024 Cathryn Sophia (82 speed figure) and a game second in the Grade 1 Cotillion (102 speed figure). Consistent 2024 season (3-4-0 from 9 starts). Recent 4F work in :47.44 at Saratoga is excellent.
• Weaknesses: No wins in 2025, with a distant second in the Obeah Stakes (100 speed figure). Struggled in the Grade 2 Ruffian at 1 mile (6th, 88 speed figure).
• Pace Profile: Versatile, can press or stalk. Likely to be forwardly placed.
• Evaluation: Gun Song’s experience at the distance and high speed figures make her a contender. Her consistency and Saratoga workout suggest she’s in form, but she needs to rebound from a lackluster 2025.

3. Leslie’s Rose (124 lbs, Irad Ortiz Jr., Trainer: Todd Pletcher)

• 2025 Record: 2 starts, 0-0-1, 103 speed figure
• Career: 9 starts, 3-1-2, $633,800, best speed 103
• Strengths: Won the Grade 1 Ashland in 2024 (97 speed figure) and ran second in the Grade 1 Acorn at Saratoga (88 speed figure). High speed figure in the 2025 Vagrancy (103). Has Saratoga experience (3 starts, 0-1-0).
• Weaknesses: Disappointing 2025 Ogden Phipps (eased, no speed figure) and faded in the 2024 CCA Oaks at this distance (4th, 77 speed figure). Inconsistent recent form.
• Pace Profile: Stalker, typically sits mid-pack and makes a move.
• Evaluation: Leslie’s Rose has the class and speed to compete, but her recent form raises concerns. Her Saratoga experience and top jockey (Ortiz) are positives, but she must overcome her Ogden Phipps flop.

4. Prides Crossing (120 lbs, Cristian Torres, Trainer: Chad Brown)

• 2025 Record: 4 starts, 0-2-0, 95 speed figure
• Career: 5 starts, 1-2-0, $110,817, best speed 95
• Strengths: Improving, with a strong allowance second at Keeneland (95 speed figure) and another at Belmont (89 speed figure). Benefits from a 4-lb weight allowance. Trained by Chad Brown, who excels with similar profiles.
• Weaknesses: Limited stakes experience and no wins in 2025. No Saratoga starts and only two races at 1 1/8 miles (both seconds). Lightly raced career raises durability questions.
• Pace Profile: Stalker/closer, prefers to sit off the pace.
• Evaluation: Prides Crossing is an intriguing longshot with upside, but her lack of stakes wins and Saratoga experience makes her a risky play against seasoned rivals.

5. Raging Sea (124 lbs, Flavien Prat, Trainer: Chad Brown)

• 2025 Record: 2 starts, 1-0-1, 96 speed figure
• Career: 15 starts, 8-2-2, $2,205,318, best speed 107
• Strengths: Top-class mare with a win in the 2025 La Troienne (96 speed figure) and the 2024 Shuvee at Saratoga (99 speed figure). Strong Saratoga record (7 starts, 3-1-1). Consistent high speed figures (107 in 2024 BC Distaff). Recent workouts are solid (4F in :48.50).
• Weaknesses: Disappointed in the 2025 Ogden Phipps (3rd, 90 speed figure) on a sloppy track. Faces pace pressure from Malibu Beauty.
• Pace Profile: Versatile, can stalk or close. Likely to sit just off the lead.
• Evaluation: Raging Sea is the class of the field, with proven Grade 1 form and Saratoga success. Her recent form and top connections (Brown/Prat) make her the horse to beat.

6. Dazzling Move (122 lbs, Jose Ortiz, Trainer: Saffie Joseph Jr.)

• 2025 Record: 4 starts, 1-2-0, 95 speed figure
• Career: 18 starts, 4-3-1, $398,359, best speed 98
• Strengths: Won the 2025 Royal Delta (93 speed figure) and ran a strong second in the 2025 Ogden Phipps (93 speed figure). Competitive at 1 1/8 miles (2 seconds). Fast workout on July 6 (4F in :47.80). Benefits from a 2-lb weight allowance.
• Weaknesses: Inconsistent at the graded stakes level, with a poor showing in the 2025 Madison (5th, 90 speed figure). Limited Saratoga success (2 starts, 0-1-0).
• Pace Profile: Frontrunner/stalker, often sets or presses the pace.
• Evaluation: Dazzling Move’s recent form and speed make her a contender, but she needs to prove she can handle top-tier competition consistently.

7. Malibu Beauty (122 lbs, Kendrick Carmouche, Trainer: Gary Capuano)

• 2025 Record: 2 starts, 2-0-0, 105 speed figure
• Career: 44 starts, 14-10-6, $919,339, best speed 105
• Strengths: In peak form, winning the 2025 Obeah (105 speed figure) and an allowance (85 speed figure). Benefits from a 2-lb weight allowance. Strong recent workouts, including a 1-mile breeze in 1:40.60. Proven at 1 1/8 miles.
• Weaknesses: No Saratoga experience. Older mare (7 years) with a long career may lack upside against younger rivals.
• Pace Profile: Frontrunner, likely to set the pace.
• Evaluation: Malibu Beauty’s recent form and speed figures make her a serious threat, especially if she controls the pace. Her lack of Saratoga experience is a concern, but her consistency cannot be ignored.

Pace Scenario

• Projected Pace: Malibu Beauty is likely to set the pace, with Dazzling Move and Gun Song pressing or stalking closely. Raging Sea and Leslie’s Rose will sit mid-pack, while Sidamara and Prides Crossing close from the rear.
• Analysis: The pace should be honest, given Malibu Beauty’s front-running style and Dazzling Move’s tendency to press. This could set up well for stalkers like Raging Sea or closers like Sidamara if the leaders tire.

Predictions

1. Raging Sea: The class of the field, with a proven Saratoga record and high speed figures. Her versatility and top connections give her the edge.
2. Malibu Beauty: In top form with a front-running style. If she shakes loose, she could hold on for a share.
3. Gun Song: Consistent and experienced at the distance, with a strong chance to hit the board.
4. Dazzling Move: Competitive recent form, but needs to step up against top competition.

Wagering Strategy

• Win Bet: Raging Sea (best value at 6-5 or higher). Her class and Saratoga success make her the most likely winner.
• Exacta Box: Raging Sea, Malibu Beauty, Gun Song. This covers the top contenders with strong recent form.
• Trifecta Key: Raging Sea over Malibu Beauty, Gun Song, Dazzling Move. Keying Raging Sea on top maximizes value while covering logical place and show horses.
• Longshot Play: Small win/place bet on Sidamara (10-1 or higher). Her closing style could capitalize on a fast pace.

Conclusion

The 2025 Shuvee Stakes is a competitive race, with Raging Sea standing out as the top contender due to her class, Saratoga success, and consistent form. Malibu Beauty’s front-running ability and recent speed figures make her a dangerous threat, while Gun Song and Dazzling Move offer value for exotics. Bettors should focus on Raging Sea while including Malibu Beauty and Gun Song in multi-race wagers for a balanced approach.

Disclaimer: Gambling involves risk. Bet responsibly. Picks are based on free past performances handicapping, historical data, and our proprietary algorithm. TheFreePPs.com provides links to publicly available racing data and is not affiliated with linked sites. All wagering should be done responsibly. TheFreePPs.com is not responsible for losses incurred using this information.

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