Tampa Bay Derby 2021 Odds, Analysis, Free PPs

Churchill Downs Home of the Kentucky Derby

Twelve horses are expected to load into the starting gate for the 2021 Tampa Bay Derby (G2) on Saturday.

One of three Kentucky Derby points preps this weekend, it’s worth a total of 85 points to be distributed to the first four finishers in a 50-20-10-5 split.

Candy Man Rocket, a last out winner here in the Sam F. Davis opens as a 2 to favorite off that effort and will face 11 other contenders who seek to score some points for a chance to run on May 1.

Get Wiz Capper’s analysis, odds, and past performances for the other big points preps this weekend — the Gotham Stakes (G3) at Aqueduct, and the San Felipe (G2) at Santa Anita.

G2 Tampa Bay Derby Field

Distance: 1 1/16 miles
Purse: $400,000
Points: 50-20-10-5

1 My Liberty – Mr. and Mrs. Mejia’s son Tomas, guided this one home a winner to break his maiden LTO here going 7/8 miles. 30-1 is a big number that will go higher as they approach the gate.

2 Super Strong – Interesting entry for Saffie Joseph. Made one and only start Camerero Race Track (formerly known as Comandante) in Puerto Rico in December going 7 furlongs on a sloppy track. Sire Super Saver won the 2010 Kentucky Derby on a rainy Saturday in Louisville so it’s no surprise that he found success on an off-track. That was a G1, and the place horse Super Kojak came back to win next out. Interesting at 8-1 and part of the ‘all others’ future wager bet in Pool 4.

3 Candy Man Rocket – Sam Davis winner 4 weeks ago has a bullet 4 furlong move at Payson in his final prep for what appears on paper to be an easy pick up. But he didn’t scare anyone away from taking a shot in here. And all things considered — the points, the purse, and the distance — this KD prep attracted 5 more horses than the other two Kentucky Derby preps – the Gotham and the San Felipe — running this weekend.

4 King of Dreams – Last out maiden victory in $50K MSW on the turf at Gulfstream. Was beaten time before by Weyburn who goes in the Gotham. Not today.

5 Boca Boy – Pacesetter through three quarters in the Sam Davis before giving way to superior competition. Two victories came when he splashed home in front of Florida breds at Gulfstream. Clear skies in Florida on Derby day. Not the winner.

6 Awesome Gerry – Exits the Holy Bull 17 lengths behind FOY winner Greatest Honour. Runs sans the hood after failing to prove effective in prior two starts. Can’t see anything in his running lines to make a case for him.

7 Moonlite Strike – Tried the Derby trail for the first time in the Smarty Jones LTO after back to back wins at Gulfstream as the favorite. Stretches out past 1 mile for the first time and appears to be in over his head.

8 Hidden Stash – Bejarano back in the saddle after connections realized they may have something here. Third behind Candy Man Rocket in the Davis, his one-run style isn’t well suited for the weird configuration of the Tampa Bay track. He won’t be as far back as Sittin On Go and should be in contention sooner when they turn for home. But don’t see him turning the tables on the Candy Man.

9 Unbridled Honor – Pletcher calls on Leparoux while Velazquez travels to Santa Anita to help Baffert evaluate Medina Spirit in the San Felipe. Could it be that this guy was a winner here with Lasix LTO in a MSW and now he won’t have it? Sitting on two bullets and the added distance is a plus. Don’t easily dismiss, at a price.

10 Helium – Connections should be high on this guy after winning his first two at Woodbine on the all-weather with Emma Jean Wilson in the irons. Gets local rider Ferrer for his third career start. Handicapper has him opening at 6 in here so the word must be out on his abilities. Can he make the transition from synthetic to sand? Find out soon.

11 Promise Keeper – Started career two lengths behind Candy Man Rocket in a 6 furlong sprint at Gulfstream at 8 to 1. Won his next out MSW easily in the slop going 1 mile at GP. Expect him to be very contentious from the start and could slip away the winner in his third start for HOF Pletcher. CHOICE

12 Sittin On Go – Sire Brody’s Cause was Romans’ chance in the 2016 Kentucky Derby finishing 7th. Like his sire, this guy comes from far, far back, which isn’t the right style for a Tampa Bay victory. BUT, he’s exiting the Holy Bull won by Greatest Honour who returned to win the Fountain of Youth last weekend. It’s good to see Romans opt for a local jock and at 20-1 he’s got a shot to pad his 10 points earned in the Iroquois. Don’t under estimate.

Tampa Bay Derby PPs See Saffie Joseph.