Future Wager Pool 4 updated with closing odds and analysis

By WIZCAPPER
Updated: March 7, 2021

Churchill Downs returns post COVID-19 with Maxfield in the G3 Matt Winn

Life Is Good adds 50 points to match Greatest Honour and take 2nd place on the Derby leader board

Life Is Good ran them off their feet in the G2 San Felipe Stakes at Santa Anita on Saturday.

Kentucky Derby Future Wager Pool 4 and Kentucky Oaks Future Wagering now closed

Since the close of betting on Pool 3, several new horses have been added to the list of betting interests for Derby Future Race 4.

No.	Horse	ML Odds	Updated Odds*	Closing Odds
1.	Caddo River	15	17	16
Holding steady at 15-1 following Saturday’s upsets in the Gotham and Tampa Bay Derby. Shown the type of speed he’ll need to take on newly anointed favorite Life Is Good after his San Felipe win. With a barn full of contenders, Cox patiently waits for next weekends Rebel. Check price as the close of Pool 4 wagering nears later today. If he’s 15-1 or more, he might be worth a $20. Less than that, wait until Derby Day.
2.	Candy Man Rocket	30	61	71
After failing to build on his Sam F. Davis win in yesterday’s Tampa Bay Derby, his stock has dropped. In 20th with 10 points, he’s teetering on being knocked out all together. Didn’t like him yesterday and don’t see him making the field.
3.	Collaborate	30	32	29
Quickly made an individual betting interest in Pool 4 wagering after an impressive 12 length victory at Gulfstream LTO in a MSW. He’s one of many Into Mischief colts showing extreme promise in this year’s crop of three year olds — including Life Is Good. Not sure where they’ll point him next but needs to find a spot to get at least 20 points to build on if they want to go to Kentucky. ‘All others’ players in Pools 1, 2, and 3 got him at a short price. Today, you can get him at 30. Worth a $20.
4.	Concert Tour	20	17	17
San Vicente winner over stablemate Freedom Fighter who returned and fizzled to 4th in the Gotham. No points yet but he’s being bet like he’ll be in regardless. Too low a price to speculate.
5.	Dream Shake	30	66	71
Despite his 3rd place showing in the San Felipe he’s climbing on the tote. One would have to imagine all kinds of horrible things happening to Life Is Good in order to see value here. There’s a term for seeing things that aren’t there.
6.	Essential Quality	7-2	6	5
Was pointed to the Southwest as his three year old debut and when it finally ran on Feb. 27, two weeks later than originally scheduled, he was the easy winner to remain undefeated. Where will he land next? Over the next 20 days the Rebel, Louisiana Derby, and Florida Derby will be contested. It’s too soon to wheel him right back in the Rebel. Cox is stabled at Fair Grounds so that’s the likely spot. Last BC Juvenile winner to wear the Roses was Nyquist in 2015. And Street Sense before that in 2006. If you like him, you’ll get more on Derby Day.
7.	Freedom Fighter	30	79	84
Stopped in the Gotham at 1 mile. Not bred for the Classic distances.
8.	Greatest Honour	6	7	6
Son of 9th place finisher Tapit in 2004 Derby. Easy winner in a weak Fountain of Youth. Holding steady in futures but he’ll be 7 on Derby Day.
9.	Highly Motivated	31	35	36
Making his first start of the year, he was third in yesterday’s Gotham. After a troubled break, he made up a lot of ground in the stretch. Another Into Mischief runner for top connections. He’ll get better when he goes two turns next time out. Take a shot here because he’ll be less than 20 on Derby Day.
10.	Hot Rod Charlie	30	53	53
2nd place finisher in BC Juvenile going up in price. Lowers expectations for Essential Quality.
11.	Hush of a Storm	50	99	99
Broke maiden sprinting at CD in first attempt. Then reeled off three graded wins to enter Juvenile starting gate as heavy favorite. Fell short at the added distance. If you think this one will get better as they get longer, then go for it at 20-1 or higher.
12.	Keepmeinmind	30	30	30
Scratched from the Risen Star yesterday so nothing to go on. But gut tells me he’s not the one.
13.	Life Is Good	4	8-5	2
Too short to play in futures
14.	Mandaloun	15	23	17
Could be worth a shot at 23 or higher, simply because he’s a half brother to all other Into Mischief’s.
15.	Medina Spirit	30	37	39
Going into the San Felipe he only needed to make up 3/4 of a length on Life Is Good so Baffert called on Johnny V. to evaluate. The results are in and he now has to make up 10 or 15 lengths on Life Is Good.
16.	Midnight Bourbon	30	50	52
Had to chase an unsuspecting leader in Risen Star and faded to 3rd. He’s a sprinter. Pass
17.	Prevalence	20	28	29
Surprisingly low in here considering he doesn’t have any points. Projected to make his next start in the G1 Florida Derby. He’ll have plenty of competition. Could be a freak and 28 indicates he might be talked up by insiders.
18.	Proxy	20	45	41
First or second in five career starts. But both wins came with Lasix. Probably needs it and tough to see him getting the Derby distance without it.
19.	Risk Taking	30	41	42
Going up as he should. Tough to like NY circuit runners in Louisville, on any day. If this was a future wager pool on the Belmont, 41 is worth a shot.
20.	Roman Centurian	50	99	94
Completely run off his feet in the San Felipe, finishing many lengths behind Life Is Good and Medina Spirit. There is no justifiable price for a future wager that he would nor could win the Derby.
21.	Rombauer	50	99	99
Helium’s win in the Tampa Bay Derby following two wins on synthetic at Woodbine is cause to pause from immediately eliminating this guy from potential success on dirt. But he should not be an individual interest in this bet.
22.	Spielberg	20	61	63
Way too many tries and on paper he looks like he’ll always be around but will rarely wear the crown.
23.	The Great One	50	70	79
Suspect he won’t be part of the Top 20 for Kentucky Derby 2021. But if he happens to find his way, you’ll get a big number on him anyway.
24.	All Other Three Year Olds	10	8	7
Opened at 10. Will probably close later today at current odds of 8. If you liked Helium’s win in the Tampa Bay Derby, you can still get 8-1 betting the No. 24, but probably too late in the game to bet that the eventual Derby winner still lurks somewhere in the ‘all others.’