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Free PPs, Odds, Analysis of San Felipe Stakes 2021

Churchill Downs returns post COVID-19 with Maxfield in the G3 Matt Winn

The 2021 San Felipe Stakes at Santa Anita only has 7 horses entered to go the 1 1/16 miles distance — but it’s loaded with talent.

The San Felipe, one of three Kentucky Derby points preps this weekend, is worth a fast 50 to the winner towards a possible date with destiny in the 2021 Kentucky Derby on May 1.

Life Is Good, undefeated in his first two, will be looking to pad his 10 points with at least a top two placing in the San Felipe. And as good as he looks on paper, he has the look of vulnerability with the presence of John Velazquez on stablemate Medina Spirit.

The other big points preps include the Gotham Stakes (G3) at Aqueduct. And the Tampa Bay Derby (G2) in South Florida.

G2 San Felipe Stakes

Distance: 1 1/16 miles
Purse: $400,000
Points: 50-20-10-5

From the rail out, here’s a quick rundown of the entrants that will be led by the 4-5 favorite Life Is Good who is undefeated in both career starts for trainer Bob Baffert.

1 Life Is Good – It certainly is for trainer Bob Baffert and the connections of this two-time winner who broke his maiden by 9 lengths at Del Mar before cruising to victory in the G3 Sham in his last start. The Kentucky Derby preps are all about the points and he can make the Top 5 with a win or place showing. He’s 4-5 today and he’s 4-1 in Future Wager Pool 4 to open and could show cracks in this one. Better to pass, if you’re playing.

2 Dream Shake – After an impressive first out victory from off the pace to win going away at 6 1/2 furlongs, connections will take the logical next step to find out if they have what it takes to go all the way to the Derby. Ran on Lasix in opener. He won’t have it today and probably doesn’t need it. Shocked the tote that day at 20 to 1 and this is a tough spot to take the shot to beat Baffert – especially if you missed him last time. Opens at 5 here but he’s 30 in KDFW Pool 4 where he’s a better bet.

3 Medina Spirit – Baffert calls on journeyman jockey Johnny V. to see if this one can finish gaining on stablemate Life Is Good who beat him 3/4 of a length in the Sham. LIG was 20 cents on the dollar that day and he was 9-1 in a 5 horse field. Love that he returned at today’s distance to win the R.B. Lewis last time and is sitting on two bullets since. And note that stablemate Spielberg exited the Lewis to finish second behind current Derby favorite Essential Quality. Opens at 30-1 in futures and 10th on the leader board with 14 points, he has a shot to upset here.

4 None Above the Law – $50K maiden claiming winner against California breds in Los Alamitos as his first out and only victory in five starts. Showed ability LTO in the CalCupDerby when second at this distance. But doesn’t belong on the Derby trail.

5 The Great One – Uh, oh! He strolled home the winner in a 1 mile MSW here LTO when getting what appears to be a breathing booster from the now ‘canceled’ medication Lasix for use in Derby prep races. Twice beaten by the aforementioned Spielberg, he’ll add pressure to an already hot pace, but don’t see him being that ‘great’ in this one.

6 Governor’s Party – Let’s see, he’s now a 3-year-old so unless his name was changed, they probably weren’t clairvoyant in their ability to see that California Governor Gavin Newsom would one day, in the not to distant future, violate his on mandates and be caught eating at the French Laundry, with California health experts no less, during a pandemic. 50-1 for plenty of reasons.

7 Roman Centurian – Would like to think that Lasix wasn’t the reason he won his MSW two back — it was a very nice off the pace victory going 1 1/16 miles that followed a 12 length defeat by Life Is Good the time before. His last out effort in the Lewis was equally impressive behind Medina Spirit  by a neck. Just a gut feeling that the two Lewis runners will perform very nicely in here — at a decent price. CHANCE to upset.

San Felipe Stakes PPs See Bob Baffert.

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