Kentucky Derby Trail: Justify Makes His Appearance

On Saturday at Santa Anita Park Justify will make his first appearance on the 2018 Kentucky Derby trail in the $1 million Santa Anita Derby (G1) for trainer Bob Baffert.

2018 Santa Anita Derby Free Past Performances Plus Post Positions, Odds and WizCapper’s Analysis

1.) Instilled Regard – 5-1. Hollendorfer trainee will be making his first start since disappointing in the Risen Star as the favorite. That race was revealing in that the top two finishers, Bravazo and Snapper Sinclair, returned to show their true colors as also rans in the Louisiana Derby next time out. However, the Risen Star favorite Noble Indy (3rd), was a determined winner in the Louisiana Derby. What’s all that mean for this guy who gets a new rider in Rosario and was a maiden winner here in his first two-turn race last October? Expect him to show up running from a stalking position in his toughest test to date.

2.) Orbit Rain – 50-1. Son of 2013 Kentucky Derby winner Orb will start this race as a maiden from the same barn as likely favorite Bolt d’Oro. Showed improvement in last when moved to turf (or was it the fact that they removed the blinkers?). Switches back to dirt for monumental task in what is a head-scratching move by trainer for a horse with limited experience. Could be a race filler as there would only be six horses in Santa Anita’s biggest race of the year. But considering this guy started career in a 7 furlong sprint in a race where he steadied and won by McKinzie. And his last start on the turf, in which he was runner-up, was won by a horse who returned to win his next two starts including a stakes on turf. Only runner with a race at this distance.

3.) Bolt d’Oro – 6-5. Won his first three races as a two-year-old. Then had the misfortune of starting as the overwhelming favorite to win the 2017 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile from post position #11. He bobbled the start that day to finish third behind Good Magic and Solomini, neither of whom have returned on the Derby trail to run convincingly. Earned his fourth win by default last time out in the San Felipe when McKinzie was DQ’d for minor infractions at best. Got a new rider in Castellano who gave him a good ride in the San Felipe and returns here. But this duo will face a dynamic newcomer to the Derby trail in Justify who could be any kind. Win or lose here and barring anything unforeseen, this guy will be going to the Derby and currently holds the top spot over McKinzie in our “Who will win the Kentucky Derby” poll by twice as many votes. Recommend caution for trainer with low stats and really only one star in his barn.

4.) Jimmy Chila – 30-1. Another maiden. WTF! Race fillers or nothing to be afraid of in here? I mean besides the fact that connections won this race in 2012 on the way to winning the Kentucky Derby and Preakness with I’ll Have Another before scratching from the Belmont with an apparent injury in what seemed to be an attempt to avoid a loss before being sold for $10 million to Japanese interests. Has a little early foot but aside from that nothing to see here.

5.) Pepe Tono – 20-1. Added blinkers to finish third in the mud behind Justify LTO. Or, you could say he beat two horses home in a field of 5. Either way, he took a nice jump up in the speed figure category from his previous three starts. High percentage trainer will give the leg up to multiple Kentucky Derby winning rider Victor Espinoza hoping to capitalize on this small field and a chance at earning at least the 40 points that will be awarded to the place horse in here. It would be easy to toss him from contention in here if not for the fact that he only needs to move up 1 1/4 lengths from his last start — assuming Justify wins and he follows him home. Wishful thinking for sure.

6.) Justify – 4-5. Who is this guy? Twice a winner by wide margins and was pennies on the dollar last time out in an OC$75K NW1X to earn this fields highest speed figure. Will be making his first start on the Road to the Kentucky Derby but must finish first or second to get in to the big race on May 5 at Churchill. Has plenty going for him and judging by the lack of challengers the word must be out on this guy that he’s not to be messed with. If he does make it to the Derby, he may very well face off against a couple of his brothers from another mother including Mendelssohn who recently won the UAE Derby without breaking a sweat. As well as Flameaway (currently #18 on the leaderboard with 30 points) and possibly Combatant who’s on the outside looking in at #23 with 22 points. And all of whom were sired by the now deceased Scat Daddy. HorseRacingNation.com has a great page of Scat Daddy progeny. All eyes will be on this guy because win or lose he’ll reveal the pretenders and the 2018 Kentucky Derby contenders.

7.) Core Beliefs – 20-1. Love it when a trainer makes an equipment change that pays off. Such was the case last time out for this guy who ran without the hood under Mike Smith to break his maiden going to turns for the first time after wearing the blinkers in his first two career starts. And was flattered when the Baffert trainee Longden returned to break his maiden in his next start. Can’t say that this guy can beat winners at first asking but can’t fault them for trying to get a piece in here.

Free Santa Anita Derby Past Performances provided by DRF.com