- Trainer PPs UPDATED
- Sire PPs UPDATED
Derby Trail: Florida Derby 2018 Odds, Analysis, Free PPs
Florida Derby 2018 Field, Odds, Analysis
1.) Strike Power – 4-1. Speedy runner draws inside and is sitting on a best of 27 bullet work a week ago. Couldn’t make the lead in the Fountain of Youth won by Promises Fulfilled who was making his first start off a 120 day layoff. Currently sits in 20th place with 20 points on the leaderboard and will need to at least hit the board to have a shot on May 5 but the added distance here will likely prove too much to win this one.
2.) Millionaire Runner – 50-1. For a reason! Trainer has sent out 143 horses at the GP meet with a 2% win rate and is 0 for 5 in graded races. After breaking his maiden by 10 at Parx in a $30K maiden claimer, they send him out in the Remsen at 166-1 where he finished 20 lengths back of Catholic Boy. No reason to be in here.
3.) Tip Sheet – 30-1. Trainer stats are dismal at this level. Scored maiden win going 5/8ths for $25k last July. Managed one other win at the Gulfstream Park West meet when the races consist of the leftovers after the real runners leave the GP grounds for Saratoga. Sandwiched in between an ‘ass whopping’ by Audible in the G2 Holy Bull, three back he was 3rd seven lengths behind Louisiana Derby winner Noble Indy and Mississippi after stumbling “hard” in an OC$75K. And LTO he managed to beat the 50-1 shot inside him by a 1/2 length in the same OC conditions. Maybe I’m missing something but his numbers don’t add up and the ‘tip sheet’ should say “don’t bet”.
4.) Promises Fulfilled – 3-1. Son of the Romans trained Shackleford who won the Preakness in 2011 and finished his career by winning the 1 1/8 miles Clark Handicap at Churchill. So while the 1 1/4 miles Derby distance may be a tad too long for this Romans trainee, he should be able to get this distance. Won the FOY in his first and only race this year. Second off a layoff is usually not a good handicapping angle so all eyes will be on this guy and the two others exiting the Fountain of Youth as an indicator for Good Magic’s return in one of the remaining prep races. Albarado back aboard as Ortiz, Jr. opts for Catholic Boy.
5.) Storm Runner – 20-1. Was well beaten by stablemate to his inside in FOY in last. Returned with a best of 42 5f bullet a week ago. Rosario departs which indicates lack of confidence in this guy’s ability at this level. But on the positive side, he broke his maiden at CD goint two turns to end his 2 year old season. And did manage to hang on over Mississippi in his race prior to the FOY.
6.) Catholic Boy – 7-2. On the outside looking in at #25 on the board with 14 points and needs a 1-2-3 placing in here to have a chance at the Derby. After he won the Remsen going turf to dirt two back, he moved way up as a contender. But since he returned in defeat as the heavy favorite in the Sam Davis LTO, backers should use caution when considering this guy as he’ll need to prove he belongs as the SD winner, Flameaway, came back in defeat to longshot Quip in the Tampa Bay Derby.
7.) Hofburg – 20-1. Juddmonte youngster and son of Tapit, the leading sire in North America, will be making his third career start and first after his maiden victory. HOF trainer Mott still looking for his first Kentucky Derby victory hopes to get on the board with a top two finish in here. Tough to like a horse right back after maiden win. But love his last race when he broke from the 11 hole to win going long while racing wide the whole time. Could be a late bloomer.
8.) Audible – 9-5. Won the Holy Bull last time to make it three in a row for Pletcher trainee who needs a good showing here to make the Derby (#28/10 points). Has highest last race Beyer 99 of any in the field and won his last two convincingly. But Free Drop Billy and Tiz Mischief, second and third respectively in the Holy Bull, came back in defeat next time out. Enticed, 4th in the Holy Bull, did return in victory in the Gotham, if it’s any consolation. This will be a good test and he may get home first, but even if he wins this, he wouldn’t have faced any of the top tier contenders yet. But one race at a time, right?
9.) Mississippi – 12-1. If you think Noble Indy is a legitimate contender after last weekend’s win in the Louisiana Derby, then this might be your guy. Was the beaten favorite in the Storm Runner race LTO, but 9 clear of the show horse Cove Blue who returned to finish 6th in the Gotham. Gets blinkers on Saturday for top connections and expect him to be right there at the end. And this guy was scratched from the Holy Bull. SHOT!
Note: Odds are from Horse Racing Nation’s morning line and may not be the official morning line odds for the Florida Derby set by the racing secretary’s office at Gulfstream Park.
The forecast is for mostly cloudy skies and a 10% chance of rain in Hallandale Beach, Florida on Saturday at Gulfstream.
It should be noted that 3 of the past 5 winners of the Kentucky Derby won the Florida Derby in their final prep race – Orb (2013), Nyquist (2016), Always Dreaming (2017).
In 2014, California Chrome won the Santa Anita Derby before taking home the Roses. And in 2015, American Pharoah won the Arkansas Derby for Bob Baffert before going on to become the first Triple Crown winner since Affirmed did it in 1978.
