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Pavlovian’s Speed Surge Shakes Up Derby Leaderboard
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The Free PPs Research Staff | February 18, 2026
Quick Take: Sunland Derby Impact
- Blistering Pace: Pavlovian’s 1:42.22 is the fastest clocking since the race moved to 1 1/16 miles, earning a massive 94 Recent Speed Figure.
- Top 5 Vault: Pavlovian and Express Kid have officially crashed the fpps Top 10, landing at #4 and #5 respectively.
- Proven Grit: Pavlovian’s Competitive Grade (A-) reflects his ability to survive a :46.40 half-mile and still finish strong.
- Derby Future: With 20 points, trainer Doug O’Neill has another legitimate weapon for the first Saturday in May.
SUNLAND PARK, NM — The Road to the Kentucky Derby often produces regional stars, but Sunday’s $500,000 Sunland Derby (G3) delivered a performance that transcends the desert. In a heart-pounding photo finish, Pavlovian edged out a game Express Kid, stopping the clock in a blistering 1:42.22 for the 1 1/16 miles. While distances have shifted historically at Sunland, this mark represents the fastest clocking since the race moved to its current configuration, signaling a massive talent spike for the Doug O’Neill trainee.
Breaking the Clock: The Speed Figure Explosion
The most striking element of Pavlovian’s victory isn’t the trophy—it’s the Recent Speed Figure. Our Free PPs analysis assigned the winner a 94, a massive jump from his previous career best.
To put that in perspective, only the current leaderboard topper, Paladin, has run faster (95) this season. Unlike many Sunland winners of the past who benefited from a “speed-favoring” surface, Pavlovian and runner-up Express Kid maintained a blistering pace of :23.11 and :46.40, finishing the final sixteenth in a resilient fashion that suggests their speed will translate to the longer stretches of Churchill Downs.
Pillar Analysis: Why Pavlovian Moved to #4
While the official leaderboard ranks horses by points, The Free PPs OPI Score looks at the quality of the athlete. Here is why Pavlovian vaulted over several horses with higher point totals on our Kentucky Derby Contenders Leaderboard:
- Competitive Grade (A-): Pavlovian didn’t just win; he conquered adversity. After being squeezed at the start and forced to chase a hot pace, he showed the “professionalism” required for a 20-horse Derby field. This grit earned him a Grade upgrade.
- OPI Pedigree Index (8.6): By Pavel out of a distance-oriented mare, his breeding suggests that the 1 1/16 miles was just a starting point. His efficiency at high speeds indicates he can carry his pace over the classic 1 1/4-mile distance. While his index is not the highest in our Top 10, his sire’s history in route races suggests he is genetically primed for the Kentucky Derby’s demands.
- Recent Speed Figure (94): Only the current leaderboard topper, Paladin, has run faster (95) this season. Pavlovian and runner-up Express Kid maintained a relentless tempo that suggests their speed will translate effectively to the 1 1/4-mile classic distance.
Historical Context: The “Baffert/O’Neill” Factor
Sunland Park has long been a productive “launching pad” for Derby contenders, most notably producing the 50-1 upset winner Mine That Bird. However, the 2026 edition felt different. By beating an $800,000 purchase in Express Kid, Pavlovian has validated the strength of the Southern California contingent.
Looking Ahead: The Final Preps
Trainer Doug O’Neill has hinted that the Santa Anita Derby is the likely next stop for Pavlovian. Meanwhile, Express Kid (who also earned a 94 Speed Figure) remains a major “Mover” in our rankings. Despite the loss, his Competitive Grade remains high, and he is expected to target the Arkansas Derby at Oaklawn Park, where his tactical speed should play well on the larger oval as we head into the stretch of final preps for the 2026 Kentucky Derby.
Following his Sunland victory, Pavlovian has surged to #4 on the 2026 Kentucky Derby OPI Leaderboard.
Is Pavlovian’s sire, Pavel, the secret to his 1 1/4-mile stamina? Check our Sire Index to see how the Sunland winner stacks up genetically against the field.
Why Our Rankings Differ from the Official Points
The official leaderboard tracks eligibility (who has the points to get in). The Free PPs Leaderboard tracks probability (who has the talent to win). Our model weighs the “Three Pillars” of performance to filter out hollow wins and highlight hidden value.
