- Trainer PPs UPDATED
- Sire PPs UPDATED
Past The Wire: The Louisiana Derby
Noble Indy fights back to win the Louisiana Derby
In the 105th running of the G2 $1 million Louisiana Derby at the Fair Grounds on Saturday, Noble Indy narrowly held on over Lone Sailor to earn 100 Kentucky Derby points and take the top spot on the TOP 20 leaderboard.
Lone Sailor, who opened at 20-1 but was sent off at only 9-1, was the hometown favorite racing in the name of local legend Tom Benson, owner of the New Orleans Saints, who recently passed away at the age of 90.
On paper, the race was supposed to be a rematch between the top three finishers of the Risen Star.
But such was not the case as Noble Indy, third in the Risen Star and wearing blinkers for the first time ever, broke sharp from post position No. 2 and raced a length behind the 140-1 pacesetter Marmello, while being restrained. Bravazo, the Risen Star winner, struggled to focus from his inside post, racing erratically to finish 8th in the field of ten. And Snapper Sinclair, second in the Risen Star, failed to repeat his effort and revealed his true self.
The Southwest winner My Boy Jack was sent off as the 3-1 second choice. And as expected, made one big run from last down the backside, to third turning for home, but could not sustain his run and flattened out in the drive.
Noble Indy Stamps Ticket to Kentucky Derby
With only 10 points, the Louisiana Derby was do or die for the connections of Noble Indy. Anything less than a one, two, three finish would virtually eliminate him from the Kentucky Derby.
But the lightly raced son of Take Charge Indy, who was making just the fourth start of his career for Repole Stable and Winstar Farm, should the toughness typical of a Pletcher trainee and stamped his ticket to Louisville where he’ll face the much tougher.
Noble Indy’s Chance of Winning the Kentucky Derby
Noble Indy is one of two of the TOP 20 horses currently on the leaderboard that are trained by Todd Pletcher. The other being the Rebel Stakes winner Magnum Moon.
So what is Noble Indy’s chance of winning the Kentucky Derby?
Realistically, it’s too early to even attempt an answer for several reasons. We’re over a month away from the first Saturday in May. There are three big weekends of Kentucky Derby prep races left before the first Saturday in May. And plenty of time for unforeseen events.
On Saturday, the probable field for the $1 million Florida Derby (G1) includes Audible from the Pletcher barn. He’s currently 28th on the leaderboard with just 10 points, and like the Louisiana Derby was to Noble Indy, the Florida Derby is do or die for him. He’s a New York bred son of Into Mischief and was an impressive winner of the Holy Bull in his last start. If he wins on Saturday, he’ll share the #1 position on the leaderboard as a strong contender to his stablemate.
Louisiana Derby Comments
Bravazo – Had two strong bullet works at Oaklawn but was disappointing to say the least. His two wins prior to the Louisiana Derby debacle were by the narrowest of margins and his 10th place finish in the KYJC last year are telling. And the fact that he still sits at #4 on the board with 54 points proves that the system by which horses are entered into the Kentucky Derby are by no means an indicator of their strength as a contender.
Hyndford – Expected him to show more after setting the pace in his prior race when tiring to finish second behind stablemate and Rebel winner Magnum Moon who is likely to make his next start in the Arkansas Derby.
Lone Sailor – Like the rest of the field he had to go further than he had before. When he made the move at the top of the stretch it appeared he had enough to go on and win but the added distance got the best of him. It’s the third time he’s been the runner up and his style is probably more a detriment than an advantage when they go 1 1/4 miles on Derby Day.
My Boy Jack – Made that big move around the far turn and spent his wad. His Southwest win was aided by the muddy track. Not sure why they didn’t just point to the Arkansas Derby. That may still be a possibility but he’ll have to face the Baffert runner Justify who is making noise on the trail and he doesn’t even have one point, yet.
DRF has a Road to the Kentucky Derby page which lists the top four finishers of each of the Derby prep races, and includes the Beyer speed figures for each Kentucky Derby prep race winner.
