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Sandman’s Road to the 2025 Kentucky Derby: Race Progression and Key Wins
- Updated: April 24, 2025
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Sandman’s Race Progression
Sandman, a 3-year-old colt by Tapit out of Distorted Music, has shown steady improvement over his eight-race career, with key performances in major Derby prep races. Here’s a break down of his journey chronologically to see how he’s progressed:
Early Races (June 27, 2024 – August 10, 2024)
Sandman debuted at Churchill Downs on June 27, 2024, in a 6-furlong maiden special weight, finishing 5th. He pressed the pace early but faded late, running the distance in 1:09.80, indicating he needed more seasoning. His next start on August 10 at Saratoga was a breakthrough—he won a 7-furlong maiden special weight by 1 length in 1:23.25, chasing the pace and edging away late. This win showed he could handle a bit more distance and had the tactical speed to stay competitive, setting a foundation for his stakes career.
First Stakes Attempts (September 14, 2024 – October 27, 2024)
Sandman stepped up to graded stakes company in the Iroquois Stakes (G3) at Churchill Downs on September 14, a 1-mile race. He finished 5th, running in 1:36.08, and struggled after a slow start, though he made up some ground late. This race highlighted a need for better early positioning, but his ability to move up in the stretch was promising. On October 27, he ran in the Street Sense Stakes (G3), also at Churchill Downs, stretching to 1 1/16 miles. He finished 3rd in 1:43.75, closing well despite being bumped and changing leads late. These races showed he could handle longer distances and tougher competition, though he wasn’t yet a front-runner in graded company.
Building Momentum (December 13, 2024 – January 25, 2025)
Sandman’s next start was an allowance optional claiming race at Oaklawn Park on December 13, 2024, at 1 mile. He won by 1 length in 1:38.50, steering out late to take the lead, demonstrating improved finishing ability. On January 25, 2025, he ran in the Southwest Stakes (G3) at Oaklawn Park, finishing 2nd in 1:45.75 over 1 1/16 miles. Despite breaking inward and tangling early, he rallied 5-wide to secure the place, showing resilience and the ability to overcome adversity. This period marked a turning point—Sandman was now consistently placing in graded stakes and handling the distances typical of Derby preps.
Peak Form in Major Preps (February 23, 2025 – March 29, 2025)
In the Rebel Stakes (G2) on February 23 at Oaklawn Park, Sandman finished 3rd over 1 1/16 miles in 1:43.08. He was 4-5 wide at the quarter pole but gained ground late to secure the show, indicating his closing ability was sharpening against top competition. His best performance came in the Arkansas Derby (G1) on March 29, where he won by 1 length in 1:50.08 over 1 1/8 miles. Sweeping up 4-wide and lugging in slightly, he cleared the field, earning 100 Derby points and solidifying his status as a top contender. This victory showed he could dominate at a distance close to the Derby’s 1 1/4 miles and handle a field of 9 runners, though his tendency to lug in might be a concern in a larger field.
Analysis of Progression
Sandman’s progression shows a clear upward trajectory. He started as a raw sprinter, struggling to sustain his speed in his debut, but quickly adapted, breaking his maiden at Saratoga. His early stakes races exposed some weaknesses—slow starts and difficulty maintaining position—but also highlighted his closing ability, which became a strength by the time he hit Oaklawn Park. His wins in the allowance race and Arkansas Derby, along with strong placings in the Southwest and Rebel Stakes, demonstrate he’s peaking at the right time. Sandman has now won 3 of 8 starts, with 2 seconds and 2 thirds, and has consistently performed well at 1 mile or longer, which bodes well for the Derby distance.
However, there are a couple of notes to consider. His tendency to lug in during the Arkansas Derby, as noted in the past performances, could be problematic in the 20-horse Derby field, where traffic trouble is common. Additionally, while he’s raced at Churchill Downs (finishing 5th, 3rd, and 5th), he hasn’t won there, and his sire Tapit’s 0-for-14 record in the Derby at Churchill Downs raises a slight concern about track affinity, despite Tapit’s overall success in producing stamina runners.
Looking Ahead to the Kentucky Derby
Sandman’s progression suggests he’s a serious contender for the 2025 Kentucky Derby. His Arkansas Derby win earned him 129 Derby points, securing his spot in the field, and his ability to close from off the pace aligns well with the often chaotic nature of the Derby, where early speed can fade. His pedigree, which we discussed earlier, combines Tapit’s stamina with Distorted Humor’s speed, giving him the genetic tools to handle the 1 1/4 miles. However, he’ll need a clean trip to avoid traffic issues, and his team might focus on sharpening his focus in the stretch during the final weeks of preparation.
Sandman’s progression mirrors some of the trends we saw with other contenders like Sovereignty, who was mentioned earlier as a strong closer in races like the Florida Derby. Sandman’s closing style could make him a good fit for a betting strategy similar to what we discussed for Sovereignty—perhaps an exacta or trifecta key with other late runners like Citizen Bull or Journalism, who we analyzed as top finishers in the hypothetical Derby field.
