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2025 Kentucky Derby Hypothetical Picks: Top 20 Leaderboard

Kentucky Derby Leaderboard Top 20 Canva

Fast track analysis

Here’s a detailed analysis of the top 20 horses on the hypothetical 2025 Kentucky Derby leaderboard based on the Brisnet Past Performances (PPs) provided. I’ll assess their form, speed figures, pedigree, trainer/jockey stats, and other key factors to handicap the field, predict the outcome, and suggest wagering strategies. Since this is a hypothetical field, I’ll assume the race conditions are typical for the Kentucky Derby: 1 1/4 miles (10 furlongs) on a fast dirt track at Churchill Downs, with morning line odds as provided.

Read the analysis on how a sloppy track shifts the odds.

NOTE: The analysis and predictions are for informational purposes only and there is no guarantee, implied or otherwise, for success using this prediction. Do your own research and wager responsibly. TheFreePPs.com nor any of its principals are responsible for any losses that may be incurred using this information.

Detailed Analysis of Top Contenders

1. Sandman (8/1)

  • Strengths: Top Prime Power (148.0), recent Grade 1 winner (Arkansas Derby, 101 speed), consistent high speed figures (101 lifetime best), and strong closing ability (swept 4-wide in last win). Sire Tapit (proven stamina) and trainer Mark Casse (17% in graded stakes) add credibility. Best dirt speed (101) is near the average winning speed for the Derby.
  • Weaknesses: Moderate early pace figures (E1/E2) suggest he’s not a front-runner, and he’ll need a clean trip from mid-pack in a 20-horse field.
  • Derby Outlook: A top contender with the ability to close into a fast pace. Likely to sit 6th-8th early and rally late.

2. Tiztastic (15/1)

  • Strengths: High Prime Power (145.3), Grade 2 winner (Louisiana Derby, 100 speed), versatile (wins on turf and dirt), and strong late pace (LP 81 in last). Trainer Steve Asmussen (17% overall, 18% in graded stakes) is a plus. Recent win suggests peak form.
  • Weaknesses: Speed figures slightly below the elite (100 best), and he’s untested at 10 furlongs on dirt.
  • Derby Outlook: A solid mid-tier contender. Could stalk the pace (4th-6th) and finish in the money if he handles the distance.

3. Tappan Street (10/1)

  • Strengths: Grade 1 winner (Florida Derby, 95 speed), high Prime Power (145.7), and trained by Brad Cox (27% overall, 25% in graded stakes). Sire Into Mischief adds class, and recent form is sharp (two wins in three starts).
  • Weaknesses: Speed figures (99 best) are below some rivals, and limited starts (3) raise questions about seasoning.
  • Derby Outlook: A live contender with upside. Likely to press the pace (2nd-4th) and could hang on for a piece.

4. Sovereignty (10/1)

  • Strengths: Grade 2 winner (Fountain of Youth, 99 speed), consistent placer (2-2-0 in 5 starts), and trained by Bill Mott (22% in graded stakes). Strong late rally in Florida Derby (2nd, 94 speed) shows closing ability.
  • Weaknesses: Failed as favorite in last (Florida Derby), and speed figures (99 best) are slightly below the top tier.
  • Derby Outlook: A reliable closer who could hit the board if the pace collapses. Likely 8th-10th early.

5. Final Gambit (40/1)

  • Strengths: Grade 3 winner (Jeff Ruby Steaks, 101 speed), high upside switching from synthetic to dirt (28% win rate for Cox in this move), and strong late pace (LP 112 in last). Brad Cox’s second entrant.
  • Weaknesses: Unproven on dirt (0-for-1), long odds (40/1), and lower Prime Power (138.3).
  • Derby Outlook: A longshot with potential. Synthetic form is promising, but dirt ability is a question. Could surprise late.

6. Coal Battle (25/1)

  • Strengths: High Prime Power (146.2), Grade 2 winner (Rebel, 98 speed), and 5-for-8 lifetime. Showed grit in Arkansas Derby (3rd, 93 speed). Trainer Lonnie Briley is 50% in graded stakes (small sample).
  • Weaknesses: Speed figures declining (93 in last), and sire Coal Front is unproven at classic distances.
  • Derby Outlook: A pace presser (2nd-5th early) who could fade late but has board potential.

7. Chunk of Gold (30/1)

  • Strengths: Consistent placer (1-3-0 in 4 starts), strong Louisiana Derby run (2nd, 98 speed), and decent late pace (LP 72 in last). Trainer Ethan West has a 25% graded stakes win rate.
  • Weaknesses: Only one win, lower Prime Power (142.6), and poor trainer win rate (11%).
  • Derby Outlook: A deep closer (10th-12th early) who could sneak into the superfecta.

8. Owen Almighty (30/1)

  • Strengths: Grade 3 winner (Tampa Bay Derby, 95 speed), 3-for-6 lifetime, and strong early speed (E1 102 in last). Trainer Brian Lynch’s 21% win rate with last-out winners is a plus.
  • Weaknesses: Speed figures (97 best) are modest, and untested beyond 8.5 furlongs.
  • Derby Outlook: A front-runner who could set the pace but may struggle to last 10 furlongs.

9. Citizen Bull (10/1)

  • Strengths: Grade 1 winner (BC Juvenile, 107 speed), highest lifetime speed figure (107), and trained by Bob Baffert (29% overall, 37% with last-out winners). Sharp recent workout (5F :58.4).
  • Weaknesses: Long layoff (last raced Feb 1), only one 2025 start, and speed figures dropped in last (96).
  • Derby Outlook: A major player if he returns to BC Juvenile form. Likely to stalk (3rd-5th) and challenge late.

10. Publisher (25/1)

  • Strengths: Strong Arkansas Derby run (2nd, 98 speed), consistent placer (0-2-3 in 7 starts), and Asmussen’s second entrant (17% graded stakes).
  • Weaknesses: No wins in 7 starts, modest speed figures (98 best), and lacks a finishing kick.
  • Derby Outlook: A grinder who could hit the board (6th-8th early) but unlikely to win.

11. American Promise (30/1)

  • Strengths: Highest last-race speed (105, Virginia Derby), sharp workout (5F :59.4), and solid pedigree (Justify x Tapit). Won last out.
  • Weaknesses: Trainer D. Wayne Lukas has a low win rate (11%), and he’s stepping up in class.
  • Derby Outlook: A live longshot who could press the pace (2nd-4th) and hang on for a piece.

12. Flood Zone (40/1)

  • Strengths: Grade 3 winner (Gotham, 101 speed), recent form (2-for-3), and Cox’s third entrant (27% overall). Speed matches average Derby winner.
  • Weaknesses: Lower Prime Power (136.2), limited starts (3), and untested at 10 furlongs.
  • Derby Outlook: A pace presser with upset potential if he stretches out.

13. Flying Mohawk (60/1)

  • Strengths: Grade 3 runner-up (Jeff Ruby Steaks, 97 speed), chance to improve on dirt (20% win rate for trainer in this move), and decent late pace (LP 102).
  • Weaknesses: Poor trainer graded stakes record (4%), unproven on dirt (0-for-0), and long odds.
  • Derby Outlook: A deep closer with a slim chance to hit the board.

14. Journalism (4/1)

  • Strengths: Grade 2 winner (San Felipe, 104 speed), 3-for-4 lifetime, and strong late pace (LP 113 in last). Morning line favorite (4/1) reflects confidence.
  • Weaknesses: Limited starts at longer distances, and trainer Michael McCarthy’s 16% graded stakes rate is solid but not elite.
  • Derby Outlook: A top contender who could stalk (4th-6th) and finish strong.

15. Madaket Road (50/1)

  • Strengths: Baffert’s second entrant (29% overall), decent Rebel run (2nd, 96 speed), and early speed (E1 107 in last).
  • Weaknesses: Declining form (89 in Florida Derby), poor speed figures (96 best), and faded badly in last.
  • Derby Outlook: A front-runner who may tire late.

16. Built (15/1)

  • Strengths: High Prime Power (144.1), Grade 3 placer (Lecomte, 94 speed), and consistent (2-1-2 in 6 starts).
  • Weaknesses: Modest speed figures (94 best), poor trainer graded stakes record (8%), and faded in last (5th, 92).
  • Derby Outlook: A mid-pack runner with board potential but unlikely to win.

17. Chancer McPatrick (30/1)

  • Strengths: Grade 1 winner (Hopeful, 99 speed), Chad Brown’s 22% graded stakes rate, and eligible to improve second off layoff (29% win rate).
  • Weaknesses: Poor speed in last (91, Tampa Bay Derby), only one 2025 start, and untested at 10 furlongs.
  • Derby Outlook: A closer with upside if he rebounds.

18. Burnham Square (40/1)

  • Strengths: Grade 3 winner (Holy Bull, 101 speed), sharp workout (5F :59.4), and decent form (2-1-1 in 5 starts).
  • Weaknesses: Failed as favorite in last (4th, 96), and trainer Ian Wilkes has an 8% graded stakes rate.
  • Derby Outlook: A mid-pack runner who could hit the board.

19. Render Judgment (80/1)

  • Strengths: Virginia Derby runner-up (96 speed), decent late pace (LP 84), and Ken McPeek’s experience.
  • Weaknesses: Poor speed figures (96 best), 1-for-6 lifetime, and long odds (80/1).
  • Derby Outlook: A longshot with little chance to win.

20. Omaha Omaha (99/1)

  • Strengths: Virginia Derby placer (3rd, 95 speed), consistent (2-1-3 in 7 starts), and some closing ability.
  • Weaknesses: Poor speed figures (95 best), never a threat in last, and trainer Michael Gorham’s 14% win rate.
  • Derby Outlook: Outclassed here.

Predicted Outcome

Based on speed figures, form, pedigree, and trainer stats, here’s my predicted Kentucky Derby finish:

  1. Citizen Bull (10/1) – His 107 BC Juvenile speed, Baffert’s pedigree, and stalking style make him the horse to beat if he’s fit off the layoff.
  2. Sandman (8/1) – Consistent closer with a Grade 1 win and top Prime Power. Perfect for a fast pace setup.
  3. Journalism (4/1) – Strong recent form (104 speed) and late kick (LP 113) give him a shot to hit the board.
  4. Tappan Street (10/1) – Grade 1 winner with Cox’s training edge could press and hold for a piece.

Bubble Horses (5th-8th): Sovereignty, Tiztastic, American Promise, Coal Battle – all have placing potential depending on pace and trip.

Wagering Strategies

  1. Win/Place Bets:
  • Citizen Bull (10/1): Strong value at double-digit odds with elite credentials.
  • Sandman (8/1): Safe bet for a top finish given consistency.
  • Journalism (4/1): Favorite with upside, though odds may shorten.
  1. Exacta Box:
  • Citizen Bull, Sandman, Journalism (3-horse box, $6 for $1 base). Covers the top tier.
  1. Trifecta Key:
  • Key Citizen Bull 1st with Sandman, Journalism, Tappan Street, Sovereignty 2nd/3rd ($12 for 50¢ base). Adds value with closers.
  1. Longshot Plays:
  • American Promise (30/1): Place bet or small win bet. High speed and Lukas’s Derby history make him intriguing.
  • Final Gambit (40/1): Exotic inclusion (trifecta/superfecta) if he takes to dirt.
  1. Superfecta Wheel:
  • Citizen Bull, Sandman 1st/2nd; Journalism, Tappan Street, Sovereignty, Tiztastic 3rd/4th ($12 for 10¢ base). Broadens coverage.

Final Notes

  • Pace Scenario: Owen Almighty and Madaket Road may set a brisk early pace, benefiting closers like Sandman, Citizen Bull, and Journalism.
  • Key Factors: Distance stamina (10 furlongs) favors Citizen Bull (Into Mischief) and Sandman (Tapit). Layoff risks (Citizen Bull) and untested dirt runners (Final Gambit) are wild cards.
  • Best Value: Citizen Bull at 10/1 offers the best risk-reward profile.

Also Eligible Contenders: Barnes, River Thames, and Luxor Cafe

Here’s an analysis of the three “also eligible” horses—Barnes, River Thames, and Luxor Cafe—based on their Brisnet Past Performances (PPs). I’ll evaluate their form, speed figures, pedigree, trainer/jockey stats, and suitability for the Kentucky Derby’s 1 1/4-mile dirt test at Churchill Downs. If any of the original top 20 are scratched, these horses could enter the field, so I’ll assess their chances as potential contenders and how they fit into the race dynamics.

Detailed Analysis of Also Eligible Horses

Barnes (15/1)

  • Pedigree: By Into Mischief (sire of Authentic, 2020 Derby winner) out of an American Pharoah mare, suggesting stamina and class for 10 furlongs.
  • Form: 2-1-0 in 3 starts, with a lifetime best speed of 102. Won the Grade 2 San Vicente (7f, 94 speed) and ran a game 2nd in the Grade 2 San Felipe (8.5f, 102 speed) to Journalism. Sharp recent 4F workout (:48, 9/59) shows fitness.
  • Strengths: Trained by Bob Baffert (29% overall, 28% in graded stakes), who excels with Derby contenders. High Prime Power (145.1, 5th in original field) and strong early/mid-race pace (E1 87, E2 97 in last) suggest he can press or stalk. Only beaten 1 1/2 lengths in the San Felipe despite being the favorite.
  • Weaknesses: Failed as the 0.40-1 favorite in his last race, yielding late to Journalism. Limited experience (3 starts) and untested beyond 8.5 furlongs raise distance questions.
  • Derby Outlook: A live contender if he gets in. Likely to sit 2nd-5th early and could challenge for the win if he stretches out. His 102 speed is competitive with the top tier (e.g., Citizen Bull’s 107, Sandman’s 101).
  • Fit in Field: Adds another pace presser, potentially heating up the early fractions alongside Owen Almighty and Madaket Road, which could benefit closers.

River Thames (40/1)

  • Pedigree: By Maclean’s Music (sire of sprinter Jack Christopher, AWD 6.2f) out of a Discreet Cat mare, suggesting speed over stamina. Dam was a winner but not stakes caliber.
  • Form: 2-1-0 in 3 starts, all in 2025, with a lifetime best speed of 99. Won a Gulfstream maiden (6f, 96 speed) and an OC75k (1m, 99 speed), then ran 2nd in the Grade 2 Fountain of Youth (8.5f, 99 speed) to Sovereignty. Recent 4F workout (:49, 10/22) is solid.
  • Strengths: Trained by Todd Pletcher (18% overall, 16% in graded stakes), who’s won the Derby twice. Consistent improvement (96-99-99 speed progression) and strong early pace (E1 88, E2 100 in last) show he can be forwardly placed. Only beaten 2 lengths in the Fountain of Youth.
  • Weaknesses: Modest speed figures (99 best) compared to elites like Citizen Bull (107) and Journalism (104). Unproven at 10 furlongs, and Prime Power (142.9, 11th in original field) is mid-tier.
  • Derby Outlook: A longshot with board potential. Likely to stalk 3rd-6th early and could hang on for a minor award if the pace collapses. Needs a career-best effort to win.
  • Fit in Field: Another pace presser/stalker, adding depth to the mid-pack group (e.g., Tappan Street, Tiztastic). Unlikely to alter the race shape significantly.

Luxor Cafe (20/1)

  • Pedigree: By American Pharoah (sire of 2015 Triple Crown winner) out of a More Than Ready mare (stakes winner), blending stamina and versatility. Dam’s 7.47 DPI and 4 stakes winners from 7 starters signal quality.
  • Form: 4-1-0 in 6 starts, with a lifetime best speed unavailable (Japanese races don’t list Brisnet speeds consistently). Won four straight in Japan, including the Fukuryu Stakes (9f, dirt, Mar 29) and Hyacinth Stakes (1m, dirt). Most recent win was a handicap at Nakayama (9f, good dirt) with Moreira aboard.
  • Strengths: Exceptional current form (3-for-3 in 2025, all dirt wins). Trainer Noriyuki Hori has limited U.S. data, but his success in Japan (e.g., with elite riders like Moreira, Moore) suggests competence. Proven at 9 furlongs, and American Pharoah’s stamina bodes well for 10 furlongs.
  • Weaknesses: Unproven on U.S. soil and fast dirt (all wins on good/muddy Japanese tracks). Lack of Brisnet speed figures makes direct comparison tricky—assuming 100-102 based on class. Steps up sharply from Japanese handicaps/stakes to a Grade 1.
  • Derby Outlook: A wildcard with serious upside. Likely to stalk or close (based on Japanese running style) and could contend if he adapts to Churchill Downs. His form rivals Sandman or Citizen Bull, but the surface/travel factor is a risk.
  • Fit in Field: Adds intrigue as a potential closer, joining Sandman and Sovereignty. Could exploit a fast pace but may need time to acclimate.

Updated Contender Rankings (If Entered)

If scratches occur, here’s how these horses slot into my top tier from the original analysis:

  1. Citizen Bull (10/1) – Still the horse to beat.
  2. Sandman (8/1) – Elite closer remains a threat.
  3. Barnes (15/1) – Jumps into the top tier with Baffert’s magic and a 102 speed.
  4. Journalism (4/1) – Strong form holds up.
  5. Luxor Cafe (20/1) – Wildcard with winning streak and pedigree; could crack the top 4 with a 102+ effort.

River Thames (40/1) slots into the second tier with Tiztastic and Sovereignty—solid but not elite unless he improves significantly.

Revised Wagering Strategies

Assuming one or more of these horses enter due to scratches:

  1. Win/Place Bets:
  • Barnes (15/1): Excellent value with Baffert’s Derby record and competitive speed.
  • Luxor Cafe (20/1): Worth a small win bet as a high-upside longshot if he adapts.
  • Stick with Citizen Bull (10/1) and Sandman (8/1) as anchors.
  1. Exacta Box:
  • Citizen Bull, Sandman, Barnes, Journalism (4-horse box, $12 for $1 base). Covers the top tier with Barnes’s inclusion.
  1. Trifecta Key:
  • Key Barnes 1st with Citizen Bull, Sandman, Journalism, Luxor Cafe 2nd/3rd ($12 for 50¢ base). Leverages Barnes’s pace and Luxor Cafe’s closing potential.
  1. Longshot Play:
  • Luxor Cafe (20/1): Place bet or exotic inclusion (trifecta/superfecta). His form screams potential, but the unknown surface is the gamble.
  • River Thames (40/1): Small place bet or superfecta filler if pace melts down.
  1. Superfecta Wheel:
  • Citizen Bull, Sandman, Barnes 1st/2nd/3rd; Journalism, Luxor Cafe, Tappan Street, Sovereignty 4th ($12 for 10¢ base). Broadens the net with new contenders.

Impact on Race Dynamics

  • Pace: Barnes and River Thames reinforce the pace-pressing group (Owen Almighty, Madaket Road), potentially setting a faster early tempo (e.g., :23, :46½ for the first half-mile). This favors closers like Sandman, Luxor Cafe, and Sovereignty.
  • Scratches: If a front-runner (e.g., Owen Almighty) scratches, Barnes could take over pace duties. If a closer (e.g., Sandman) scratches, Luxor Cafe fills that role.
  • Best Fit: Barnes has the clearest path to success due to Baffert’s expertise and U.S. dirt experience. Luxor Cafe is the high-risk, high-reward play, while River Thames is a steady but unspectacular option.

2025 Kentucky Derby Scratch Scenario: Barnes and Luxor Cafe Shake Up the Field

Let’s simulate a specific scratch scenario for the 2025 Kentucky Derby field to see how it impacts the race dynamics, contender rankings, and wagering strategies. I’ll assume a plausible situation based on the original top 20 and the “also eligible” horses (Barnes, River Thames, Luxor Cafe). For this simulation, I’ll scratch two horses from the original field—one front-runner and one closer—to shake up the pace scenario and allow two of the “also eligible” horses to enter. Here’s the setup:

Scratch Scenario

  • Scratched Horses:
  1. Owen Almighty (30/1) – A front-runner with strong early speed (E1 102 in last). His scratch removes a key pace-setter.
  2. Sovereignty (10/1) – A consistent closer with Grade 2 credentials. His scratch reduces the strength of the late runners.
  • Replacements:
  1. Barnes (15/1) – Enters as a pace presser/stalker with Baffert’s training and a 102 speed.
  2. Luxor Cafe (20/1) – Enters as a potential closer with a hot streak from Japan and American Pharoah stamina.

This leaves us with a revised field of 20, with 18 from the original list (minus Owen Almighty and Sovereignty) plus Barnes and Luxor Cafe.

Revised Field Overview

  • Remaining Front-Runners/Pace Pressers: Madaket Road (E1 107), American Promise (E1 102), Tappan Street, Coal Battle, Barnes.
  • Remaining Closers: Sandman, Journalism, Tiztastic, Final Gambit, Chancer McPatrick, Luxor Cafe.
  • Mid-Pack/Stalkers: Citizen Bull, Publisher, Built, Burnham Square, River Thames (if added as a third replacement).

New Pace Scenario

  • Without Owen Almighty, Madaket Road (50/1) and Barnes (15/1) are likely to set the early pace, with American Promise (30/1) and Tappan Street (10/1) pressing close behind. Expect a moderate tempo (e.g., :23½, :47½ for the first half-mile) rather than a blistering one, as Madaket Road’s form has declined, and Barnes prefers to stalk slightly off the lead (E1 87, E2 97 in last).
  • This softer pace benefits stalkers like Citizen Bull and Journalism while still allowing closers like Sandman and Luxor Cafe to make their moves, though they’ll need to start earlier without Sovereignty’s late punch to collapse the pace.

Updated Contender Rankings

Here’s how the top contenders shift with Owen Almighty and Sovereignty out, and Barnes and Luxor Cafe in:

  1. Citizen Bull (10/1)
  • Why: Still the class of the field with a 107 speed and Baffert’s edge. The softer pace lets him sit 3rd-5th and pounce late.
  • Outlook: Benefits most from the scratch scenario; remains the horse to beat.
  1. Sandman (8/1)
  • Why: Top closer (Prime Power 148.0, 101 speed) thrives in any pace scenario. Losing Sovereignty reduces competition for his late run.
  • Outlook: Strong chance to rally for the win or a close 2nd.
  1. Barnes (15/1)
  • Why: Slots in as a major player with Baffert’s training, a 102 speed, and versatility to press or stalk彼此 – Outlook: Could take the lead early or stalk Madaket Road (2nd-4th). Benefits from Owen Almighty’s absence and could hold on for a top finish if he handles 10 furlongs.
  1. Journalism (4/1)
  • Why: Beat Barnes in the San Felipe (104 speed) and has a strong late kick (LP 113). Softer pace suits his stalking style (4th-6th).
  • Outlook: Still a top threat, though he’ll need to outkick Sandman and Luxor Cafe late.
  1. Luxor Cafe (20/1)
  • Why: Enters with a 4-race win streak and untested upside. American Pharoah pedigree suggests he’ll handle 10 furlongs, and he could close into a moderate pace.
  • Outlook: Wildcard with top-5 potential if he adapts to U.S. dirt.

Bubble Horses (6th-10th): Tappan Street (pace presser, 10/1), Tiztastic (versatile, 15/1), American Promise (longshot pace, 30/1), Final Gambit (synthetic-to-dirt upside, 40/1), Coal Battle (grinder, 25/1).

Race Simulation

  • Early Stages (First 4F): Madaket Road jumps to the lead, with Barnes a length back in 2nd, followed by American Promise and Tappan Street. Citizen Bull and Journalism settle into 5th and 6th, conserving energy, while Sandman and Luxor Cafe lag in 10th and 12th, respectively.
  • Mid-Race (6F-8F): Barnes overtakes a fading Madaket Road around the far turn, with Tappan Street and Citizen Bull closing the gap. Journalism moves up to 5th, while Sandman and Luxor Cafe begin picking off horses (8th and 9th).
  • Stretch: Citizen Bull surges past Barnes at the 1/8th pole, with Sandman flying late to challenge. Journalism and Barnes battle for 3rd, while Luxor Cafe rallies for a possible 5th, passing tiring pace pressers.

Predicted Finish:

  1. Citizen Bull
  2. Sandman
  3. Journalism
  4. Barnes
  5. Luxor Cafe

Revised Wagering Strategies

The scratch of Owen Almighty (pace) and Sovereignty (closer) shifts value toward stalkers and versatile horses like Barnes and Citizen Bull, while Luxor Cafe adds longshot appeal.

  1. Win/Place Bets:
  • Citizen Bull (10/1): Best value and strongest contender in this scenario.
  • Barnes (15/1): Great shot to hit the board with pace control.
  • Luxor Cafe (20/1): Small win bet for his upside as a closer.
  1. Exacta Box:
  • Citizen Bull, Sandman, Barnes (3-horse box, $6 for $1 base). Tightens focus on the top tier.
  1. Trifecta Key:
  • Key Citizen Bull 1st with Sandman, Barnes, Journalism, Luxor Cafe 2nd/3rd ($12 for 50¢ base). Covers the top 5 finishers.
  1. Superfecta Wheel:
  • Citizen Bull, Sandman 1st/2nd; Barnes, Journalism, Luxor Cafe, Tappan Street 3rd/4th ($12 for 10¢ base). Adds Tappan Street as a pace survivor.
  1. Longshot Play:
  • Luxor Cafe (20/1): Place or show bet. Could sneak into the top 4 with a big U.S. debut.

Key Takeaways from the Scenario

  • Pace Impact: Owen Almighty’s scratch softens the early fractions, reducing the chance of a total pace collapse. This favors horses like Citizen Bull and Barnes, who can sit close and kick, over pure closers like Final Gambit or Chancer McPatrick.
  • Closer Impact: Sovereignty’s absence elevates Sandman and Luxor Cafe as the primary late threats, though the moderate pace means they’ll need to launch earlier (around the 3/8th pole).
  • New Entrants: Barnes fits seamlessly as a contender, while Luxor Cafe’s untested U.S. form makes him a high-risk, high-reward play.

This simulation assumes a fast Churchill Downs track on April 04, 2025, with no major weather disruptions. Let me know if you’d like to tweak the scenario (e.g., scratch different horses, add River Thames, or adjust track conditions)!