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Preakness Stakes 2025 Preview: Top Contenders and Betting Guide
- Updated: May 4, 2025
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Preakness Stakes 2025: A Preview of the Triple Crown’s Second Jewel
The 150th Preakness Stakes, set for May 17, 2025, at Pimlico Race Course in Baltimore, Maryland, promises to deliver high-stakes drama as the second leg of horse racing’s coveted Triple Crown. Coming just two weeks after a thrilling Kentucky Derby, the Preakness offers a $2 million purse and a chance for contenders to etch their names in history. Whether you’re a casual fan captivated by the pageantry or a serious bettor crunching speed figures, this guide breaks down the 2025 Preakness, recaps the Derby, and spotlights the horses to watch in the “Run for the Black-Eyed Susans.”
Kentucky Derby Recap: Sovereignty Shines in the Mud
The 2025 Kentucky Derby, run on May 3 at Churchill Downs, was a muddy spectacle that showcased the grit of Sovereignty. Trained by Bill Mott, the colt relished the off-track conditions, powering through the 1 1/4-mile distance to hold off the fan-favorite Journalism, who finished a game second. Baeza, runner-up to Journalism in the Santa Anita Derby, stayed on for third, while Final Gambit and Owen Almighty rounded out the top five, completing the Super High Five wager. Sovereignty’s victory highlighted his stamina and pedigree, with his unraced dam Crowned boasting a classic lineage through Preakness-winning sire Bernardini and millionaire dam Mushka. The muddy track played to his strengths, but the Preakness’s 1 3/16-mile distance and potentially different track conditions at Pimlico will test his versatility.
Journalism, trained by Michael McCarthy, entered the Derby as the betting favorite after a dominant Santa Anita Derby win. His strong second suggests he’s a major player for the Preakness, though the quick two-week turnaround could challenge his recovery. Baeza, under John Shirreffs, showed he can compete with the best, setting up an intriguing rematch. The Derby’s top finishers are likely to headline the Preakness field, but fresh horses skipping the Derby often steal the show in Baltimore—a trend we’ll explore below.
The Preakness Stakes: What to Expect at Pimlico
The Preakness Stakes, first run in 1873, is the shortest of the Triple Crown races at 1 3/16 miles (9.5 furlongs), a sixteenth of a mile shorter than the Derby. Pimlico’s dirt track is known for its tighter turns and shorter homestretch compared to Churchill Downs, often favoring horses with tactical speed or the ability to sit close to the pace. Unlike the Derby’s chaotic 20-horse field, the Preakness typically features a smaller field of 8-14 runners, making clean trips easier but increasing the pressure to stay near the front.
Track conditions at Pimlico can vary, especially in mid-May, when Baltimore’s weather can bring rain, as seen in the muddy 2018 Preakness won by Justify. Early forecasts for May 17, 2025, suggest a chance of showers, so bettors should watch for horses with proven form on wet tracks, like Sovereignty. The Preakness’s $2 million purse and Grade 1 status attract a mix of Derby veterans and “new shooters” who skipped the Derby for extra rest, creating a dynamic betting landscape.
Non-Derby Runners: A Winning Trend in the Preakness
One of the Preakness’s defining trends is the success of horses who didn’t run in the Kentucky Derby. Over the past decade, non-Derby runners have won five consecutive Preakness Stakes (2020-2024), including Seize the Grey in 2024, Early Voting in 2022, and Swiss Skydiver in 2020. These horses benefit from fresher legs, avoiding the grueling Derby schedule, and often exploit the shorter distance and smaller field. Trainers like Chad Brown have mastered this strategy, winning with Cloud Computing (2017) and Early Voting by targeting the Preakness after skipping the Derby.
This trend makes the 2025 Preakness ripe for an upset by horses like Instant Replay, Clever Again, Heart of Honor, Rodriguez, or River Thames. These probables, detailed below, bring strong credentials from recent stakes races and could capitalize on Pimlico’s unique demands. For bettors, these fresh faces often offer better value than Derby runners with shorter odds.
Top Contenders for Preakness 2025
Here’s a look at the likely Preakness field, including Derby runners and notable non-Derby probables. Note that final entries and post positions won’t be confirmed until closer to race day, but these horses are expected to compete based on trainer intentions and recent form.
| Post Position | Horse Name | Morning Line Odds | Jockey |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Goal Oriented | 6-1 | Flavien Prat |
| 2 | Journalism | 8-5 | Umberto Rispoli |
| 3 | American Promise | 15-1 | Nik Juarez |
| 4 | Heart of Honor | 12-1 | Saffie Osborne |
| 5 | Pay Billy | 20-1 | Raul Mena |
| 6 | River Thames | 9-2 | Irad Ortiz, Jr. |
| 7 | Sandman | 4-1 | John Velazquez |
| 8 | Clever Again | 5-1 | Jose Ortiz |
| 9 | Gosger | 20-1 | Luis Saez |
Derby Runners
- Sovereignty: His Derby win and mud-loving form make him a top contender, but trainer Bill Mott hasn’t confirmed a Preakness run. His pedigree suggests he can handle the distance, but a fast track might test him against speedier rivals.
- Journalism: The Santa Anita Derby winner and Derby runner-up is a likely starter, with Michael McCarthy eyeing redemption. His consistent speed figures (around 100 Beyer) and stalking style suit Pimlico’s track.
- Baeza: Third in the Derby, Baeza’s closing kick could benefit from Pimlico’s shorter stretch. John Shirreffs may opt to rest him, but his form makes him a threat if he runs.
- Final Gambit: Todd Pletcher’s colt ran a solid fourth in the Derby. His tactical speed could play well at Pimlico, though he’ll need to improve to challenge the top tier.
- Owen Almighty: Kenny McPeek’s fifth-place Derby finisher showed heart. His ability to stay close to the pace could suit the Preakness, but he may need a career-best effort.
Non-Derby Probables
- Clever Again: Trained by Steven Asmussen, this American Pharoah colt won the Hot Springs Stakes at Oaklawn with a 101 Beyer Speed Figure. His front-running style and two-for-three record make him a pace factor.
- Instant Replay: Brad Cox’s Maximum Security colt won the Bath House Row Stakes, earning a Preakness berth. His 91 Beyer in that race and strong finishing kick suggest he’s improving at the right time.
- Heart of Honor: Jamie Osborne’s colt, bred in Great Britain, ran second in the UAE Derby at Meydan. His international form and adaptability to dirt (2-for-5) make him an intriguing longshot.
- Rodriguez: Bob Baffert’s Wood Memorial winner was scratched from the Derby due to a foot bruise but is targeting the Preakness. His 101 Beyer and early speed make him a major player.
- River Thames: Todd Pletcher’s Blue Grass Stakes third-place finisher boasts a 95 Beyer and a versatile running style. His Fountain of Youth runner-up effort shows he can compete with top company.
Betting Strategies for Casual Fans and Serious Bettors
For casual fans, the Preakness is a chance to enjoy the spectacle and place simple bets:
- Win Bet: Pick a horse to finish first. Sovereignty or Journalism are safe choices for favorites, while Rodriguez or Clever Again offer value.
- Exacta Box: Bet on two horses to finish first and second in any order. Try pairing Journalism with Baeza or Rodriguez with Instant Replay.
- Show Bet: Bet on a horse to finish in the top three. Heart of Honor or River Thames could reward at longer odds.
For serious bettors, focus on value and race dynamics:
- Pace Analysis: Clever Again and Rodriguez could set a brisk early pace, favoring stalkers like Journalism or closers like Baeza. Check TimeformUS pace projections closer to race day.
- Value Plays: Non-Derby runners like Instant Replay (20-1 in early wagering) or River Thames (15-1) offer better payouts than Derby stars. Consider them in exotic bets like trifectas.
- Track Conditions: If Pimlico’s track is wet, prioritize Sovereignty or Instant Replay, who ran well on sloppy tracks. Check weather updates on race week.
- Trainer Trends: Baffert (Rodriguez) and Pletcher (River Thames, Final Gambit) have strong Preakness records. Asmussen (Clever Again) is due for a Triple Crown breakthrough.
Why the Preakness Matters
For casual fans, the Preakness is a vibrant celebration of horse racing, complete with the iconic blanket of black-eyed Susans and traditions like the painting of the winner’s colors on Pimlico’s weather vane. For bettors, it’s a chance to capitalize on a race where favorites like Journalism face upset threats from fresh horses. With Sovereignty’s Derby win raising the stakes, the 2025 Preakness could keep Triple Crown hopes alive or crown a new star.
Stay tuned for updated odds, post positions, and free past performances at sites like preakness.com or freepps.com. Watch the Preakness live on NBC or stream it on Peacock, with coverage starting at 4:30 p.m. ET on May 17. Whether you’re cheering from the infield or betting from home, the 150th Preakness Stakes is set to be a race to remember.
