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2025 Peter Pan Stakes Analysis, Predictions, and Betting Strategies
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Analysis of the Field
Below is an analysis of each horse’s strengths, weaknesses, and chances based on the data, focusing on key handicapping factors: speed, stamina, class, pace, and connections.
Disclaimer: The information provided is for entertainment purposes only. There is no guarantee of success, implied or otherwise, when using any part of the information found in this analysis to wager on the Race of the Day. The predictions are based on handicapping experience using a consensus of the information gleaned from reading all available free past performances. Enjoy the race!
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- Vassimo (Post 1, Irad Ortiz, Jr., Todd Pletcher, 118 lbs)
- Form: 1 win in 4 starts (Life: 4-1-0-0). Best race was a 1 1/16-mile allowance win at Tampa (90 Equibase Speed Figure, Jan 2025). Disappointed in graded stakes (6th in G2 Louisiana Derby, 4th in G2 Risen Star).
- Class: Limited success in graded company but showed improvement in allowance win. Triple Crown nominee.
- Pace: Versatile; can sit off the pace or lead (rated in Tampa win).
- Connections: Pletcher (9% win rate in 2025) and Ortiz (29% win rate) are top-tier. Their presence boosts confidence.
- Workouts: Consistent 4F works at Belmont (e.g., :50.25 on Apr 25, 2025), suggesting fitness.
- Pedigree: By Nyquist, out of a Pulpit mare; bred for stamina (1 1/8 miles should suit).
- Assessment: Likely to improve off allowance win. Strong connections and inside post make him a contender, but graded stakes form is a concern.
- Happily Delusional (Post 2, Paco Lopez, Louis C. Linder, Jr., 118 lbs)
- Form: 1 win in 8 starts (Life: 8-1-4-0). Won a 1 1/16-mile maiden at Parx (Jan 2025, 70 Equibase). Recent stakes efforts modest (4th in Federico Tesio, 4th in City of Brotherly Love).
- Class: Limited stakes experience; best at allowance/maiden level.
- Pace: Can press or stalk; showed late rally in Parx allowance (2nd, Mar 2025).
- Connections: Linder has a 0% win rate in 2025 (small sample); Lopez is capable but less prominent (0% in sample).
- Workouts: Strong 5F work at Parx (:1:00.77, May 3, 2025), indicating readiness.
- Pedigree: By Flatter; may handle 1 1/8 miles but lacks graded stakes pedigree.
- Assessment: Consistent but lacks the class to compete with top contenders. Better suited to lower-level races.
- Surfside Moon (Post 3, Junior Alvarado, James L. Lawrence II, 118 lbs)
- Form: 1 win in 7 starts (Life: 7-1-1-2). Strong 2nd in G3 Withers (Feb 2025, 92 Equibase) and 3rd in Federico Tesio (Apr 2025, 89 Equibase). Maiden win at Delaware (Aug 2024).
- Class: Competitive in graded stakes; Withers performance suggests he can handle this level.
- Pace: Stalker; showed good closing kick in Withers (2nd, 3-5 path).
- Connections: Lawrence has a 0% win rate (small sample); Alvarado is solid (0% in sample but 3-0-0-1 in 2025).
- Workouts: Recent 6F work at Fair Hill (1:15.60, May 4, 2025), showing stamina.
- Pedigree: By Malibu Moon; bred for middle distances, should handle 1 1/8 miles.
- Assessment: Consistent in stakes company and improving. A top contender if he repeats Withers effort.
- Hill Road (Post 4, Flavien Prat, Chad C. Brown, 118 lbs)
- Form: 1 win in 4 starts (Life: 4-1-0-2). 3rd in G3 Tampa Bay Derby (Mar 2025, 88 Equibase) and 3rd in G1 BC Juvenile (Nov 2024, 98 Equibase). Maiden win in Ireland (Aug 2024).
- Class: Proven in high-level stakes (G1, G3); BC Juvenile 3rd is standout.
- Pace: Mid-pack runner; showed ability to advance between foes.
- Connections: Brown (40% win rate in 2025) and Prat (29% win rate) are elite. Strong combo.
- Workouts: Sharp 4F works at Belmont (e.g., :48.00, Apr 19, 2025), indicating peak form.
- Pedigree: By Quality Road; bred for stamina and class.
- Assessment: High-class runner with top connections. A major player if he handles the distance.
- McAfee (Post 5, John R. Velazquez, Richard E. Dutrow, Jr., 118 lbs)
- Form: 1 win in 4 starts (Life: 4-1-1-0). 5th in G2 Wood Memorial (Apr 2025, 99 Equibase) and 5th in G3 Gotham (Mar 2025, 92 Equibase). Maiden win at Churchill Downs (Nov 2024, 69 Equibase).
- Class: Competitive in graded stakes but no wins at this level.
- Pace: Stalker; saved ground in Wood Memorial but lacked late kick.
- Connections: Dutrow (0% in 2025, small sample); Velazquez (29% win rate) is a plus.
- Workouts: Solid 4F work at Belmont (:48.54, Apr 19, 2025). Blinkers on may sharpen focus.
- Pedigree: By Cloud Computing; modest pedigree but showed promise.
- Assessment: Blinkers could help, but recent stakes form suggests he’s a step below top contenders.
- Uncaged (Post 6, Kendrick Carmouche, Todd A. Pletcher, 118 lbs)
- Form: 2 wins in 3 starts (Life: 3-2-0-0). Won 1-mile allowance at Aqueduct (Apr 2025, 84 Equibase) and 6F maiden at Saratoga (Aug 2024, 81 Equibase). 4th in 6F allowance at Gulfstream (Mar 2025).
- Class: Unproven in stakes but dominant in allowance/maiden races.
- Pace: Can lead or stalk; rallied wide in Aqueduct win.
- Connections: Pletcher (9% win rate) and Carmouche (19% win rate) are strong.
- Workouts: Consistent 4F works at Belmont (e.g., :49.25, Apr 25, 2025).
- Pedigree: By Curlin; bred for stamina, should relish 1 1/8 miles.
- Assessment: Lightly raced with upside. Pletcher’s confidence in stepping up is a positive sign.
- First Pitch (Post 7, Jose Lezcano, Jose M. Jimenez, 118 lbs)
- Form: 1 win in 3 starts (Life: 3-1-0-0). Won 1 1/8-mile maiden at Aqueduct (Mar 2025, 64 Equibase). Poor showings in prior maidens (9th, 11th).
- Class: No stakes experience; maiden win was against weaker.
- Pace: Set the pace in maiden win; likely to be forwardly placed.
- Connections: Jimenez (0% in 2025, small sample); Lezcano (25% win rate) is reliable.
- Workouts: Fast 5F work at Belmont (1:00.65, Apr 30, 2025), showing fitness.
- Pedigree: By Improbable; NY-bred, may struggle against open company.
- Assessment: Maiden win was encouraging, but class jump is significant. Likely overmatched.
- Captain Cook (Post 8, Manuel Franco, Richard E. Dutrow, Jr., 120 lbs)
- Form: 2 wins in 4 starts (Life: 4-2-0-0). Won G3 Withers (Feb 2025, 95 Equibase) and 7F maiden at Aqueduct (Dec 2024, 94 Equibase). 4th in G2 Wood Memorial (Apr 2025, 101 Equibase).
- Class: Proven in graded stakes; Withers win was dominant.
- Pace: Can press or stalk; chased wide in Wood Memorial but weakened late.
- Connections: Dutrow (0% in 2025, small sample); Franco (20% win rate) is capable.
- Workouts: Sharp 4F work at Belmont (:48.85, Apr 25, 2025).
- Pedigree: By Practical Joke; bred for speed but showed stamina in Withers.
- Assessment: Top contender based on Withers win and high speed figures. Outside post is a slight concern.
- Brereton’s Baytown (Post 9, Marshall Mendez, Paul McEntee, 118 lbs)
- Form: 2 wins in 11 starts (Life: 11-2-0-0). Won 1 1/16-mile claimer at Laurel (Feb 2025, 72 Equibase) and 6F maiden at Charles Town (Dec 2024, 73 Equibase). 5th in G1 Arkansas Derby (Mar 2025, 77 Equibase).
- Class: Outclassed in G1/G2 stakes; claimer win suggests lower level.
- Pace: Mid-pack runner; even effort in Arkansas Derby but no threat.
- Connections: McEntee (0% in 2025, small sample); Mendez (0% in sample) is less experienced.
- Workouts: Fast 5F work at Keeneland (:59.40, Apr 15, 2025).
- Pedigree: By Upstart; modest pedigree, may struggle at 1 1/8 miles.
- Assessment: Likely to be outrun by classier rivals. Best as an underneath exotic player.
- Lordship (Post 10, Dylan Davis, Chad C. Brown, 118 lbs)
- Form: 1 win in 1 start (Life: 1-1-0-0). Won 1 1/16-mile maiden at Tampa (Mar 2025, 82 Equibase).
- Class: No stakes experience; maiden win was promising but against weaker.
- Pace: Stalker; rallied from 5th in maiden win.
- Connections: Brown (40% win rate) and Davis (27% win rate) are excellent.
- Workouts: Consistent 4F works at Belmont (e.g., :49.00, May 3, 2025).
- Pedigree: By Gun Runner; high-class pedigree, bred for distance.
- Assessment: Intriguing longshot with upside. Brown’s decision to enter after one start suggests confidence, but lack of experience is a risk.
Pace Scenario
Based on recent running styles:
- Early Speed: First Pitch (set pace in maiden win), Captain Cook (pressed in Withers), and Uncaged (led/stalked in allowance) are likely to be forwardly placed.
- Stalkers: Vassimo, Surfside Moon, Hill Road, McAfee, and Lordship prefer mid-pack positions with closing kicks.
- Closers: Happily Delusional and Brereton’s Baytown tend to rally from farther back.
- Projection: A moderate pace is likely, with First Pitch or Uncaged setting the tempo. Stalkers like Captain Cook and Surfside Moon should benefit from a clean trip, while deep closers may need a faster pace to close effectively. The 1 1/8-mile distance favors horses with stamina, such as Hill Road and Lordship.
Prediction
Based on class, form, speed figures, and connections, here is the predicted order of finish:
- Captain Cook: Highest speed figure (101 in Wood Memorial), proven in graded stakes (Withers win), and strong recent form. Dutrow’s preparation and Franco’s experience make him the horse to beat.
- Hill Road: Elite connections (Brown/Prat) and G1 BC Juvenile 3rd show class. Should handle the distance and improve off Tampa Bay Derby.
- Surfside Moon: Consistent in stakes (Withers 2nd, Federico Tesio 3rd) with a strong closing style. Alvarado’s tactical ride could secure a top-three finish.
- Vassimo: Pletcher/Ortiz combo and allowance win suggest upside, but graded stakes form is weaker. Likely to hit the board.
- Lordship: Intriguing longshot with Brown/Davis and a strong pedigree. Lack of experience may limit him, but he could surprise.
Others: Uncaged has potential but lacks stakes experience; McAfee may improve with blinkers but faces tough competition; First Pitch, Happily Delusional, and Brereton’s Baytown are likely outclassed.
Wagering Strategies
Assume Captain Cook and Hill Road will be favorites (based on class and connections), with Surfside Moon and Vassimo as mid-range prices and Lordship as a potential longshot. Strategies are designed for value and flexibility, considering the 10-horse field and pari-mutuel betting. All bets assume a $100 total budget for illustration.
- Win/Place Bets ($40 total):
- Captain Cook ($20 Win, $10 Place): Strongest resume with Withers win and high speed figures. Place bet hedges if he’s overtaken late.
- Hill Road ($10 Place): Brown/Prat and BC Juvenile form make him a safe bet to hit the board, even if he doesn’t win.
- Rationale: Focuses on the two classiest horses with proven stakes form, minimizing risk while targeting solid payouts.
- Exacta Box ($30 total):
- Box Captain Cook, Hill Road, Surfside Moon (3 horses, $2 per combo = $12).
- Box Captain Cook, Hill Road, Vassimo (3 horses, $2 per combo = $12).
- Add $6 exacta: Captain Cook over Lordship ($3), Hill Road over Lordship ($3).
- Rationale: Covers likely winners with consistent performers and includes Lordship as a longshot for a bigger payout. The box structure accounts for pace uncertainty.
- Trifecta Key ($24 total):
- Longshot Show Bet ($6 total):
Betting Notes
- Track Conditions: Check the weather forecast for May 10, 2025, at Belmont at the Big A. Wet conditions could favor horses with off-track form. Current weather forecast for Aqueduct Racetrack on Saturday, May 10, 2025, indicates partly cloudy conditions with a 30 percent chance of showers. Highs are expected to be in the upper 60s, and lows in the lower 50s.
- Pace Dynamics: If First Pitch or Uncaged set a fast pace, closers like Surfside Moon and Hill Road benefit. A slow pace favors Captain Cook or Vassimo. Monitor tote board for pace clues.
- Value Hunting: Watch live odds on race day via nyra.com or twinspires.com. If Lordship drifts above 10-1, increase show or exotic bets. If Captain Cook is overbet (e.g., below 2-1), focus on Hill Road or exotics.
- Bankroll Management: The $100 budget is split to balance risk (win/place) and reward (exotics). Adjust based on your risk tolerance and odds.
Additional Considerations
- Historical Trends: The Peter Pan Stakes has produced Belmont Stakes winners (e.g., Arcangelo in 2023, Tonalist in 2014), suggesting the winner here could be a contender on June 7, 2025, at Saratoga. Captain Cook and Hill Road are Triple Crown nominees, enhancing their upside.
- Connections: Trainers Pletcher (4 Belmont Stakes wins) and Brown (strong 2025 stats) have a history of success in this race. Their horses (Vassimo, Uncaged, Hill Road, Lordship) warrant attention.
- Speed Figures: Captain Cook’s 101 in the Wood Memorial is the highest in the field, followed by McAfee’s 99 and Hill Road’s 98. These figures suggest a class edge for the top contenders.
For the latest odds, past performances, or live updates, visit freepps.com on race day.
Peter Pan Stakes (G3) – May 10, 2025
Race 11, Belmont at the Big A, 1 1/8 miles, 3-year-olds
| Post Position | Horse Name | Jockey | Trainer | Morning Line Odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Vassimo | Irad Ortiz, Jr. | Todd A. Pletcher | 5-1 |
| 2 | Happily Delusional | Paco Lopez | Louis C. Linder, Jr. | 20-1 |
| 3 | Surfside Moon | Junior Alvarado | James L. Lawrence II | 8-1 |
| 4 | Hill Road | Flavien Prat | Chad C. Brown | 5-2 |
| 5 | McAfee | John R. Velazquez | Richard E. Dutrow, Jr. | 8-1 |
| 6 | Uncaged | Kendrick Carmouche | Todd A. Pletcher | 8-1 |
| 7 | First Pitch | Jose Lezcano | Jose M. Jimenez | 50-1 |
| 8 | Captain Cook | Manuel Franco | Richard E. Dutrow, Jr. | 2-1 |
| 9 | Brereton’s Baytown | Marshall Mendez | Paul McEntee | 50-1 |
| 10 | Lordship | Dylan Davis | Chad C. Brown | 12-1 |
Equipment Changes: Noted for McAfee (blinkers on).
