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Home / News / Keeneland Picks – Race of the Day April 9, 2025

Keeneland Picks – Race of the Day April 9, 2025

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Expert Analysis for Keeneland Race 7 – April 9, 2025

Race Details: Dirt, 1⅛ Miles, 3YO Optional Claiming 125k/N1X, Purse $120K
Wagers Available: Double, Exacta ($1 min), Trifecta ($0.50 min), Superfecta ($0.10 min)
Post Time: 4:12 PM ET

Below is a detailed handicapping analysis using the provided DRF Formulator Past Performances (PPs), focusing on class, speed, pace, form, trainer/jockey stats, and track tendencies. The goal is to predict the order of finish and suggest a wagering strategy.

NOTE: The analysis and predictions are for informational purposes only and there is no guarantee, implied or otherwise, for success using this prediction. Do your own research and wager responsibly. TheFreePPs.com nor any of its principals are responsible for any losses that may be incurred using this information.

Horse-by-Horse Analysis

1. Special Caliber (30-1)

  • Strengths: Broke his maiden impressively on Jan 18 at Turfway (1 mile, 67 Beyer) and has a decent late pace figure (TimeformUS Late 67). Trainer Michel Douaihy has a solid 19% win rate in 2025.
  • Weaknesses: Longshot odds reflect a lack of competitiveness at this level. His best Beyer (63) is well below the field’s top figures, and his Feb 22 effort at 1⅛ miles was lackluster (63 Beyer, never threatened). Jockey Serpa’s 0-for-102 record in 2025 is a red flag.
  • Pace: Early 77 / Late 67 suggests a midpack stalker with modest finishing kick.
  • Verdict: Likely overmatched; a toss unless he improves dramatically.

2. Bracket Buster (20-1)

  • Strengths: Won his maiden at Keeneland (1⅛ miles, 77 Beyer) on Oct 9, 2024, showing he handles the track and distance. Jockey Luis Saez (17% in 2025) adds upside.
  • Weaknesses: Inconsistent since his maiden win, with a poor 66 Beyer in his last start (Oct 27, 2024). Trainer Victoria Oliver’s 2% win rate in 2025 is concerning, and he’s unproven in allowance company.
  • Pace: Early 99 / Late 66 indicates he’ll press early but may fade late.
  • Verdict: Keeneland win is a plus, but recent form suggests he’s a fringe contender.
  • Between The Lines: Exits G3 Street Sense that included three 2025 Kentucky Derby Contenders Sovereignty, Tiztastic, and Sandman.

3. Without Caution (20-1)

  • Strengths: Trainer Cherie DeVaux (22% in 2025) and jockey Jose Ortiz (26% in 2025) are a strong combo. Won his maiden on turf (1⅛ miles, 84 Beyer) and has a solid late pace figure (Late 80). Blinkers off could sharpen focus.
  • Weaknesses: All starts on turf or synthetic; debuts on dirt here. Last start (Mar 1, 58 Beyer) was dull, and the surface switch is a question mark.
  • Pace: Early 71 / Late 80 suggests a closer who could benefit from a fast pace.
  • Verdict: Intriguing if he takes to dirt, but unproven on the surface.

4. Kinetic Control (15-1)

  • Strengths: Consistent performer with a maiden win (1⅛ miles, 86 Beyer) and a recent second in a Gulfstream OC 75k/N1X (79 Beyer). Trainer Dale Romans (26% in 2025) is in good form.
  • Weaknesses: Struggles to close the deal (1-for-6 lifetime), and his Keeneland effort (Oct 9, 55 Beyer) was weak. Jockey Corey Lanerie’s 0-for-6 in 2025 at Keeneland is a concern.
  • Pace: Early 105 / Late 68 suggests he’ll be forwardly placed but may lack late punch.
  • Verdict: Reliable for a minor award but rarely wins.

5. Cut the Dust (12-1)

  • Strengths: Explosive maiden win at Woodbine (5½f synthetic, 83 Beyer) shows talent. Jockey Frankie Dettori could elevate him, and his works (e.g., 5f in 1:00 on Mar 28) are sharp.
  • Weaknesses: Only two starts, with a dull Feb 23 effort (72 Beyer) stretching to 7f. Unproven at two turns and on dirt (one start, no success).
  • Pace: Early 111 / Late 44 indicates a need-the-lead type who could tire at 1⅛ miles.
  • Verdict: Speedy but untested at the distance; risky proposition.

6. Lion of Justice (8-5)

  • Strengths: Dominant debut win at Colonial (1 mile, 92 Beyer) off a $1.1M purchase price. Trainer Brad Cox (27% in 2025) and jockey Flavien Prat (29% in 2025) are elite. Works suggest readiness.
  • Weaknesses: Only one start, so he’s lightly raced against seasoned foes. Steps up in class and distance.
  • Pace: Early 126 / Late 66 means he’ll set or press the pace with decent stamina.
  • Verdict: The horse to beat based on debut and connections.

7. Hedge (20-1)

  • Strengths: Two wins from five starts, including a 1-mile allowance score (80 Beyer) on Nov 1, 2024. Trainer Ben Colebrook’s 50% win rate in 2025 (small sample) is notable.
  • Weaknesses: Unproven at 1⅛ miles, and his last start (88 Beyer, fourth) showed he struggles against tougher company. Jockey James Graham’s 0-for-5 at Keeneland in 2025 hurts.
  • Pace: Early 97 / Late 63 suggests a stalker with limited closing ability.
  • Verdict: Capable of hitting the board but unlikely to win.

8. Touchy (9-2)

  • Strengths: Proven at Keeneland (maiden win, 79 Beyer, Oct 23, 2024) and versatile (1-for-6, 79 Beyer top). Third in the Sunland Derby (85 Beyer) shows class. Trainer Wesley Ward (15% in 2025) and jockey Joel Rosario (15% in 2025) are solid.
  • Weaknesses: Recent form is mixed (third at Keeneland on Apr 7, 83 Beyer), and he’s yet to break through at this level.
  • Pace: Early 102 / Late 72 offers a balanced approach, ideal for this distance.
  • Verdict: Major player with a strong chance to win or place.

9. Ashley’s Archer (8-1)

  • Strengths: Trainer Mark Casse (14% in 2025) excels with shippers, and jockey Florent Geroux is reliable. Turf maiden win (80 Beyer) and a recent dirt second (70 Beyer) show adaptability.
  • Weaknesses: Unproven at 1⅛ miles, and his dirt Beyer (70) is modest. Mixed form in stakes company.
  • Pace: Early 95 / Late 66 suggests a midpack runner with average finishing kick.
  • Verdict: Could sneak into the trifecta with a career-best effort.

10. Skate Away (4-1)

  • Strengths: Impressive maiden win (1¹⁄₁₆ miles, 79 Beyer) on Feb 22 at Gulfstream. Trainer Todd Pletcher (20% in 2025) and jockey Irad Ortiz Jr. (21% in 2025) are top-tier. Works are consistent.
  • Weaknesses: Lightly raced (2 starts), and his debut (81 Beyer, fifth) was underwhelming. Steps up in class.
  • Pace: Early 112 / Late 72 indicates a pace factor with stamina to finish.
  • Verdict: Dangerous contender with upside.

11. Kakao (30-1)

  • Strengths: Broke his maiden at Parx (1 mile, 70 Beyer) and has experience (8 starts). Trainer Juan Vazquez could surprise at a price.
  • Weaknesses: Low Beyers (70 top) and poor recent form (e.g., 63 Beyer on Mar 16). Outclassed here.
  • Pace: Early 88 / Late 69 suggests a plodder with little upside.
  • Verdict: Toss; unlikely to factor.

12. Lured Away (15-1)

  • Strengths: Strong closer (Late 98) with a recent win at Oaklawn (1⅛ miles, 76 Beyer) on Feb 14. Trainer Kenny McPeek (15% in 2025) excels with routers.
  • Weaknesses: Inconsistent (1-for-7), and his Keeneland start (49 Beyer) was poor. Needs a perfect trip.
  • Pace: Early 62 / Late 98 makes him a deep closer reliant on pace collapse.
  • Verdict: Live for the superfecta if the pace gets hot.

13. Hymn (9-2, AE)

  • Strengths: Solid debut (83 Beyer) and a second in an OC 200k/N1X (74 Beyer) at Oaklawn. Blinkers on could sharpen him. Trainer Ron Moquett (17% in 2025) is capable.
  • Weaknesses: Only two starts, and he needs scratches to draw in.
  • Pace: Early 129 / Late 67 suggests a front-runner with decent staying power.
  • Verdict: Contender if he gets in.

14. Valentinian (7-2, AE)

  • Strengths: Impressive maiden win (1⅛ miles, 78 Beyer) on Mar 1. Pletcher/Velazquez combo is lethal, and his $1.5M price tag reflects talent.
  • Weaknesses: Only one start; untested against winners.
  • Pace: Early 64 / Late 98 makes him a closer with explosive potential.
  • Verdict: Top threat if he draws in.

Pace Scenario

  • Speed Horses: Lion of Justice (Early 126), Skate Away (112), Cut the Dust (111), Kinetic Control (105), Touchy (102), and Bracket Buster (99) will vie for the lead or press early.
  • Closers: Lured Away (Late 98), Valentinian (98), Without Caution (80), and Skate Away (72) could capitalize on a pace meltdown.
  • Balanced: Touchy (102/72) and Skate Away (112/72) offer versatility.

The pace should be honest with multiple speed types, favoring horses with tactical speed or a strong late kick over the 1⅛-mile distance.

Predicted Order of Finish

  1. 6. Lion of Justice (8-5) – Debut Beyer (92), elite connections, and pace advantage make him the standout. Likely controls the race from the front or just off it.
  2. 8. Touchy (9-2) – Proven at Keeneland, versatile running style, and a top jockey give him a big shot to hit the board or upset.
  3. 10. Skate Away (4-1) – Rising star with a strong maiden win and Pletcher/Ortiz firepower. Should stalk and finish well.
  4. 12. Lured Away (15-1) – Late pace figure (98) and recent win at the distance make him a sleeper for the superfecta.
  5. 4. Kinetic Control (15-1) – Consistent enough to round out the top five but lacks the win punch.

Also Eligible Notes: If 14. Valentinian (7-2) or 13. Hymn (9-2) draw in, they’d rank in the top four due to their upside and connections.

Wagering Strategy

Given the field size (14, potentially reduced by scratches) and the mix of favorites and longshots, a combination of exacta, trifecta, and superfecta bets offers value.

Double ($1 Min)

  • Pair Lion of Justice (6) with top contenders in Race 8 (assuming user provides Race 8 PPs later). Suggested keys: 6 with 8, 10, 12.

Exacta ($1 Min, $10 Total)

  • Box: 6-8-10 ($6)
  • Key 6 over others: 6 with 8, 10, 12, 4 ($4)
  • Rationale: Lion of Justice is the anchor, with Touchy and Skate Away as strong place threats.

Trifecta ($0.50 Min, $12 Total)

  • Key 6 on top: 6 / 8, 10, 12 / 4, 8, 10, 12 ($9)
  • Box top three: 6-8-10 ($3)
  • Rationale: Covers Lion of Justice winning with logical place/show horses, plus a small box for safety.

Superfecta ($0.10 Min, $4.80 Total)

  • 6 / 8, 10, 12 / 4, 8, 10, 12 / 3, 4, 7, 8, 9, 10, 12 ($4.80)
  • Rationale: Lion of Justice to win, with key contenders in second/third and a wider net for fourth, including live longshots like Without Caution (3) and Hedge (7).

Final Thoughts

Lion of Justice (6) is the horse to beat, but Touchy (8) and Skate Away (10) offer value if the favorite falters. Lured Away (12) is a sneaky closer at a price. Focus bets around the top tier while sprinkling in longshots for exotic upside. Check scratches and track conditions closer to post time, as they could shift the pace dynamics.