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Home / News / Ashland Stakes 2025: Expert Analysis, Predictions, and Wagering Strategy

Ashland Stakes 2025: Expert Analysis, Predictions, and Wagering Strategy

Race of the Day Picks and Predictions Canva

Good morning! Let’s dive into the analysis, factoring in the key race dynamics from the Honeybee Stakes, the track condition with rain in the forecast, and the additional insights you’ve shared about specific horses. The goal is to give you a detailed breakdown, predictions, and a wagering strategy tailored to the race. Free DRF Formulator Past Performances (PPs) for the Grade 1 Ashland Stakes at Keeneland on April 7, 2025 are now available.

Read the 2025 Ashland Stakes analysis using the Brisnet Free Past Performances

NOTE: The analysis and predictions are for informational purposes only and there is no guarantee, implied or otherwise, for success using this prediction. Do your own research and wager responsibly. TheFreePPs.com nor any of its principals are responsible for any losses that may be incurred using this information.

Race Overview

  • Distance: 1 1/16 miles (Dirt)
  • Purse: $750,000
  • Field: 8 three-year-old fillies
  • Post Time: 5:16 PM ET
  • Weather: Rain in the forecast, suggesting a potentially wet track (sloppy or muddy conditions).
  • Wagers Available: Double, Exacta ($1 min), Trifecta ($0.50 min), Superfecta ($0.10 min)

The Ashland Stakes is a key Kentucky Oaks prep race, and with rain looming, horses with proven ability in off conditions or tactical versatility could have an edge. The Honeybee Stakes (Feb 23, 2025, at Oaklawn) is a critical reference point, as its winner, Quietside, validated the form by winning the G2 Fantasy Stakes next out. Three horses here—Look Forward, Muhimma, and Take Charge Milady—exit that race, and its “key race” status boosts their credentials. Let’s break it down.

Horse-by-Horse Analysis

1. Look Forward (20-1, Mario Gutierrez, Michael McCarthy)

  • Strengths: Early speed (TimeformUS Early Pace: 111), rail draw, and a strong SoCal record (2 wins, 1 second in 4 starts). Her G2 Starlet runner-up effort (86 Beyer) shows class.
  • Concerns: Bobbled at the start in the Honeybee (7th, 73 Beyer), unproven at Keeneland, and no wet-track experience. The 20-1 ML reflects her longshot status.
  • Honeybee Insight: You noted she was compromised by the bobble and improved late. That suggests she could rebound with a cleaner break.
  • Wet Track: No data, but sire Bolt d’Oro’s progeny often handle off going (Medaglia d’Oro influence).
  • Outlook: Her speed from the rail could put her in the mix early, but she needs a career-best to win against this group.

2. La Cara (9-2, Dylan Davis, Mark Casse)

  • Strengths: Consistent (3 wins, 2 seconds in 8 starts), versatile (wins at 7f and 1 1/16m), and a recent stakes win at Tampa (101 Beyer). Handles multiple tracks well.
  • Concerns: Disappointing G1 BC Juvenile Fillies (5th, 74 Beyer) and no Keeneland experience. Only one wet start (44 Beyer, unplaced).
  • Wet Track: Limited evidence suggests she may not relish slop, but her Street Sense pedigree hints at potential adaptability.
  • Outlook: Her tactical speed (Early Pace: 101) and recent form make her a contender, though she might need to prove herself on a wet surface.

3. Supa Speed (4-1, Joel Rosario, John Sadler)

  • Strengths: Nearly won on dirt last out (2nd by a nose in G3 Santa Ysabel, 81 Beyer), versatile running style (Early Pace: 89, Late Pace: 85), and Rosario aboard.
  • Concerns: Primarily a turf/synthetic runner (5 of 6 starts), untested at Keeneland, and no wet-track runs. Cross-country ship is a question.
  • Wet Track: Justify progeny often handle off going (Scat Daddy influence), and her dirt try was encouraging.
  • Outlook: Her dirt debut was sharp, and she’s bred to handle the surface shift. A sneaky contender if she adapts to Keeneland.

4. Muhimma (9-5, Flavien Prat, Brad Cox)

  • Strengths: Dominant early form (3 straight wins, including G2 Demoiselle, 90 Beyer), high speed (Early Pace: 110), and Prat riding for Cox (36% win rate together in 2024-25).
  • Concerns: Tired to 3rd in the Honeybee (78 Beyer) off a layoff, no Keeneland starts, and low Late Pace (63) suggests vulnerability if pressed.
  • Honeybee Insight: You noted she ranged wide and faded after a three-month break. That race likely sharpened her, and her works since are strong.
  • Wet Track: No data, but Munnings offspring often handle slop well.
  • Outlook: The favorite has the speed to control the race and the upside to improve second off the layoff. A major player.

5. Running Away (3-1, Gerardo Corrales, Wesley Ward)

  • Strengths: Perfect on dirt (2 for 2, including Busanda Stakes, 78 Beyer), early speed (Early Pace: 113), and distance suits (won at 1 1/8m).
  • Concerns: Three-month layoff, no Keeneland runs, and faces other speed. No wet-track experience.
  • Wet Track: Gun Runner’s progeny thrive in mud (Candy Ride influence), giving her an edge if it pours.
  • Outlook: Her speed and dirt prowess make her dangerous, though the layoff and pace duel risk are concerns.

6. Take Charge Milady (8-1, Brian Hernandez Jr., Kenneth McPeek)

  • Strengths: Proven in mud (maiden win, 84 Beyer), won Martha Washington Stakes (76 Beyer), and a strong closer (Late Pace: 95). New rider could help.
  • Concerns: Troubled trip in Honeybee (10th, 59 Beyer), no Keeneland starts, and modest speed figures.
  • Honeybee Insight: You highlighted her troubled start and traffic issues. That excuses the poor finish, and her prior form is solid.
  • Wet Track: Loves slop (1 for 2, plus a sharp mud work on March 30), making her a prime candidate if it rains.
  • Outlook: A live closer if the pace heats up and the track turns sloppy. Upset potential.

7. Amarth (20-1, Luis Saez, Eddie Kenneally)

  • Strengths: Won at Keeneland (7f, 83 Beyer), solid route form (Busher 2nd, 59 Beyer), and Saez is a plus.
  • Concerns: Longshot ML, trainer’s poor graded stakes record (7%), and no wet-track runs. Speed figures lag behind top contenders.
  • Track Advantage: Her Keeneland win is a big plus—think “home-field advantage.”
  • Wet Track: McKinzie’s progeny can handle off going (Street Sense line), though untested.
  • Outlook: A longshot with local experience, but she needs a big step up to hit the board.

8. Admit (15-1, Jose Ortiz, Thomas Drury Jr.)

  • Strengths: In-form (2 straight synthetic stakes wins at Turfway, 85/77 Beyers), versatile (Early Pace: 85, Late Pace: 70), and Ortiz aboard.
  • Concerns: Limited dirt success (0 for 2), no Keeneland runs, and outside post. Class jump is significant.
  • Wet Track: No data, but Blame’s offspring often handle slop (Arch influence).
  • Outlook: A synthetic specialist trying dirt again. Needs a perfect trip to factor, but Ortiz keeps her in play.

Key Factors and Race Dynamics

  1. The Honeybee Angle: Quietside’s Fantasy win elevates Muhimma (3rd), Look Forward (7th), and Take Charge Milady (10th). Muhimma’s wide trip and layoff excuse her fade, Look Forward’s bobble cost her, and Take Charge Milady’s trouble makes her a sleeper.
  2. Wet Track: Rain favors horses with mud form or pedigrees suited to it—Take Charge Milady (proven), Running Away, Muhimma, and Supa Speed (bred for it).
  3. Pace Scenario: Speed horses like Running Away (113), Muhimma (110), and Look Forward (111) could set a fast pace, benefiting closers like Take Charge Milady (Late Pace: 95) or Supa Speed (Late Pace: 85).
  4. Keeneland Advantage: Amarth’s prior win here is notable, though her class is a question.
  5. Trainer/Jockey: Cox/Prat (Muhimma) and Ortiz (Admit) are hot combos, while McPeek’s knack for preps boosts Take Charge Milady.

Predictions

  • Winner: Muhimma (4) – Her speed, second-off-the-layoff angle, and Cox/Prat combo make her the horse to beat. She’s likely sharper after the Honeybee and can dictate terms.
  • Second: Take Charge Milady (6) – If the track is sloppy, her mud form and closing kick could see her pick off tiring speed. The new rider and excused Honeybee run add intrigue.
  • Third: Running Away (5) – Her dirt record and speed are tough to ignore, though the layoff and pace pressure temper expectations.
  • Fourth: Supa Speed (3) – Her dirt debut was promising, and she’s versatile enough to hit the board.

Longshot to Watch: Amarth (7) – Keeneland win and Saez make her a sneaky superfecta play.

Wagering Strategy

With an 8-horse field and potential for a wet track to shake things up, I’ll focus on value while covering the top contenders.

Exacta ($1 Base, Total: $12)

  • Box: 4-6 ($2)
  • Key 4 over: 3, 5, 6 ($3)
  • Key 6 over: 3, 4, 5 ($3)
  • Part-Wheel: 4, 6 / 3, 5, 7 ($4)

Trifecta ($0.50 Base, Total: $12)

  • Key 4 over: 3, 5, 6 / 3, 5, 6, 7 ($6)
  • Key 6 over: 3, 4, 5 / 3, 4, 5, 7 ($6)

Superfecta ($0.10 Base, Total: $4.80)

  • 4 / 3, 5, 6 / 3, 5, 6, 7 / 1, 3, 5, 6, 7 ($2.40)
  • 6 / 3, 4, 5 / 3, 4, 5, 7 / 1, 3, 4, 5, 7 ($2.40)

Win Bet Suggestion

  • $5 Win on Muhimma (4) if odds are 2-1 or higher.
  • $2 Win on Take Charge Milady (6) if odds stay 8-1 or higher (value play).

Final Thoughts

This race hinges on Muhimma bouncing back and Take Charge Milady capitalizing on a wet track. The pace could get hot with Running Away and Look Forward pushing early, setting up closers. We’ve leaned on the Honeybee form and weather as key variables, while keeping Amarth and Supa Speed as upset possibilities. Good luck at the windows—let me know how it plays out!