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Home / News / Keeneland Picks – Jenny Wiley Stakes April 12, 2025

Keeneland Picks – Jenny Wiley Stakes April 12, 2025

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Analysis of the Grade 1 Jenny Wiley Stakes – Keeneland Race 10

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Race Overview
The Grade 1 Jenny Wiley Stakes is a 1 1/16-mile turf race for fillies and mares aged 4 and up, with a $650,000 purse and a Beyer Speed Figure par of 101. The field of nine is competitive, featuring a mix of seasoned graded stakes performers, improving 4-year-olds, and European imports making their North American debuts. The Keeneland turf course, which has seen recent rain, may favor closers or horses with tactical speed who can adapt to a potentially softer surface. Pace dynamics suggest a moderate tempo, with Kehoe Beach likely to set the early fractions, followed by stalkers like Be Your Best and Poolside With Slim, while deep closers like Sacred Wish and No Show Sammy Jo could benefit from a contested pace.

Horse-by-Horse Analysis

  1. Excellent Truth (Ire) (5-2)
    • Strengths: Trained by Chad Brown (38% with first-time North American runners), this 5-year-old mare has a strong European record (11-4-3-1, $206,648). Her Timeform ratings (108-110) indicate Grade 1 competitiveness, and she’s shown versatility in running style, winning from off the pace or on the lead. Flavien Prat (26% win rate with Brown) is a major plus, and her recent works at Payson Park suggest readiness.
    • Concerns: First U.S. start introduces uncertainty, and her siblings’ modest records raise questions about untapped potential.
    • Fit: Loves this distance and should handle the Keeneland turf well. Her ability to pass horses suits the course’s recent trends.
    • Verdict: A top contender with the class and connections to win.
  2. Choisya (GB) (4-1)
    • Strengths: Another European import, this 5-year-old mare boasts a 19-7-5-0 record and recent Timeform ratings of 111 from wins in Dubai. Her consistency is unmatched, and she’s proven at high levels (Group 2/3). Luis Saez is a capable rider, and her tactical speed should secure a good position.
    • Concerns: First North American start for trainer Simon Crisford, and her best races were at slightly shorter distances (7f-1m).
    • Fit: Her stalk-and-pounce style aligns with Keeneland’s closer-friendly turf. The morning line odds offer value.
    • Verdict: Serious threat if she adapts to the U.S. racing style.
  3. Poolside With Slim (Ire) (20-1)
    • Strengths: A 4-year-old with upside (10-3-1-2, $376,313), she won the Grade 3 Valley View at Keeneland last fall (Beyer 88). Trainer Rusty Arnold is solid second off a layoff (16%), and Jose Ortiz is a strong addition. Her stalking style suits the race shape.
    • Concerns: Steps up to Grade 1 company for the first time, and her Beyers (88-90) lag behind the favorites. The added distance is a question mark.
    • Fit: Knows the course but needs a career-best to compete with the top tier.
    • Verdict: Longshot for exotics, best as a pace presser.
  4. Vina Arana (Ire) (30-1)
    • Strengths: Broke her maiden impressively at Saratoga (Beyer 81), and trainer Jack Sisterson is adept with turf runners. Her closing style (TimeformUS Late Pace 114) matches Keeneland’s trends, and Umberto Rispoli is a crafty rider.
    • Concerns: Lightly raced (5-1-0-2), she’s a massive class jump from maiden to Grade 1. Her European form was modest, and her Beyers are low (75-81).
    • Fit: Could sneak into the superfecta if the pace collapses, but she’s outclassed on paper.
    • Verdict: Deep exotic filler at best.
  5. Be Your Best (Ire) (6-1)
    • Strengths: A Grade 1 winner (Pegasus World Cup Filly & Mare Turf, Beyer 98), this 5-year-old is in peak form for trainer Saffie Joseph Jr. (24% with last-out winners). Irad Ortiz Jr. rides, and her 18-5-3-2 record ($900,309) shows reliability. She’s effective at this distance (4-3-0-1).
    • Concerns: Her Keeneland record (2-0-0-0) is uninspiring, and she prefers to sit close to the pace, which may not suit a closer-friendly course.
    • Fit: Classy and consistent, she’s a major player if she avoids traffic trouble.
    • Verdict: Likely to hit the board, possibly win with a clean trip.
  6. Jabaara (Ire) (9-2)
    • Strengths: A 4-year-old with Group 3 wins in England, she ran a strong second in the Group 1 Falmouth (Timeform 102). Her closing style could capitalize on a fast pace, and Joel Rosario is a top turf rider. Trainer Roger Varian’s runners often fire fresh.
    • Concerns: First U.S. start and unproven at 1 1/16 miles. Her recent Wolverhampton run was lackluster (Timeform 102).
    • Fit: Needs to stretch out effectively but has the talent to contend.
    • Verdict: Dangerous if she handles the distance; a win candidate.
  7. Kehoe Beach (7-2)
    • Strengths: The likely pacesetter, this 4-year-old won the Grade 2 Mrs. Revere last out (Beyer 93). Trainer Wesley Ward excels at Keeneland (33% with Dettori locally), and her front-running style (TimeformUS Early Pace 106) could steal the race. She’s improving (7-4-1-0, $438,518).
    • Concerns: Faces tougher closers, and her Beyers (93-95) are slightly below par. Can she hold off the late chargers?
    • Fit: Perfect spot to wire the field if she gets an easy lead.
    • Verdict: Strong win chance but vulnerable late.
  8. Sacred Wish (8-1)
    • Strengths: A 5-year-old with a stellar 18-4-7-3 record ($1,076,338), she’s coming off a Grade 1 Matriarch win (Beyer 92). Trainer George Weaver’s runners fire off layoffs (18%), and her closing kick (TimeformUS Late Pace 95) suits Keeneland. John Velazquez rides.
    • Concerns: Her Keeneland form (2-0-0-1) is modest, and she needs a fast pace to unleash her best run.
    • Fit: Loves passing horses and could capitalize on a meltdown.
    • Verdict: Prime exotic contender, possible win if pace is hot.
  9. No Show Sammy Jo (GB) (15-1)
    • Strengths: Undefeated in her last three starts (6-4-1-0, $277,900), this 5-year-old is improving rapidly for trainer Graham Motion. Her closing style (TimeformUS Late Pace 105) is ideal, and she’s 2-for-2 off layoffs. Manuel Franco is riding well.
    • Concerns: Faces a significant class test, and her Beyers (89-95) need a jump to match the leaders. No Keeneland experience.
    • Fit: Could crash the exotics with a career-best effort.
    • Verdict: Upset potential for the superfecta.

Selections

  1. Excellent Truth (Ire) – Class, connections, and running style make her the one to beat.
  2. Be Your Best (Ire) – Proven Grade 1 form and consistency keep her in the mix.
  3. Choisya (GB) – European form and value odds make her a strong contender.
  4. Sacred Wish – Late kick could land her in the trifecta if the pace collapses.

Exotic Inclusions:

  • Kehoe Beach (pace factor, possible wire job).
  • Jabaara (Ire) (upside at the distance).
  • No Show Sammy Jo (closer with momentum).

Wagering Strategy

Budget: $50
Race Wagers: Double, Exacta ($1 min), Trifecta ($0.50 min), Superfecta ($0.10 min).

  • Win Bet ($10)
    • Excellent Truth (Ire) (5-2): Offers value with high win probability.
  • Exacta Box ($12, $1 base)
    • 1 (Excellent Truth) / 5 (Be Your Best) / 2 (Choisya)
    • Covers top three picks for a focused payout (6 combinations x $2 = $12).
  • Trifecta Part-Wheel ($12, $0.50 base)
    • Key: 1 (Excellent Truth) / 5 (Be Your Best) / 2 (Choisya)
    • Second: 1, 5, 2
    • Third: 1, 5, 2, 7 (Kehoe Beach), 8 (Sacred Wish)
    • Structure: 1 / 5, 2 / 1, 5, 2, 7, 8 + permutations (24 combos x $0.50 = $12).
    • Balances favorites with live prices.
  • Superfecta Part-Wheel ($10.80, $0.10 base)
    • Key: 1 (Excellent Truth) / 5 (Be Your Best)
    • Second: 1, 5, 2 (Choisya)
    • Third: 1, 5, 2, 7 (Kehoe Beach), 8 (Sacred Wish)
    • Fourth: 1, 5, 2, 7, 8, 6 (Jabaara), 9 (No Show Sammy Jo)
    • Structure: 1, 5 / 1, 5, 2 / 1, 5, 2, 7, 8 / 1, 5, 2, 7, 8, 6, 9 (108 combos x $0.10 = $10.80).
    • Catches deep exotics with upset potential.
  • Double ($5, $1 base)
    • Race 9 (assumed competitive field): Top two picks (e.g., 1, 2).
    • Race 10: 1 (Excellent Truth), 5 (Be Your Best)
    • Structure: 1, 2 / 1, 5 (4 combos x $1 = $4, +$1 hedge on 1 / 1).
    • Links to the next race for a potential carryover boost.

    Total Spend: $49.80
    Rationale: Emphasizes Excellent Truth as the anchor while covering logical contenders (Be Your Best, Choisya) and live prices (Sacred Wish, Kehoe Beach, No Show Sammy Jo) for bigger payouts. The double adds a small speculative play.

    PAST PICKS RESULTS

    Here you can view the past performance of the daily analysis and picks yesterday at Keeneland.
    NOTE: The analysis and predictions are for informational purposes only and there is no guarantee, implied or otherwise, for success using this prediction. Do your own research and wager responsibly. TheFreePPs.com nor any of its principals are responsible for any losses that may be incurred using this information.