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Journalism’s Road to the 2025 Preakness Stakes: Race Progression and Key Wins
- Updated: May 14, 2025
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Race Progression Analysis for Journalism
Let’s analyze Journalism’s race progression towards the 2025 Preakness Stakes, drawing on his PPs and comparing him to other contenders.
Race Progression Breakdown
Journalism, trained by Michael W. McCarthy, has a record of 4-1-1 in six starts, with a prime power rating of 104 (2nd among Preakness contenders). He enters the Preakness as the 8-5 favorite from post 2, reflecting his strong form and Kentucky Derby performance.
Debut (October 27, 2024)
Journalism debuted on October 27, 2024, at Santa Anita in a 6-furlong maiden special weight on a fast dirt track, finishing 3rd in 1:10.50 with an 83 speed figure. In a 5-horse field, he broke slowly, raced three-wide to inside, and made a late run to finish behind Smooth Cruisin and Mellencamp. His debut aligns with Gosger’s 6-furlong second (1:11.75, 80 speed figure), showing early inexperience but promise, unlike Goal Oriented’s winning debut (1:10.07, 98 speed figure).
Maiden Win (November 17, 2024)
On November 17, 2024, Journalism raced at Del Mar in a 1-mile maiden special weight on a fast dirt track, winning by ¾ length in 1:36.08 with a 105 speed figure. In a 10-horse field, he raced inside, tipped three-wide, and reeled in Rank and Brother Tony. His time is faster than Gosger’s maiden win (1:37.88, 94 speed figure) and Pay Billy’s (1:12.87 at 6 furlongs, 88 speed figure), showcasing his ability to stretch out early, a trait shared with River Thames’s 1-mile allowance win (1:36.16, 91 speed figure).
First Stakes Win: Los Alamitos Futurity (G2) (December 14, 2024)
Journalism competed in the Los Alamitos Futurity (G2) on December 14, 2024, at Los Alamitos over 1 1/16 miles on a fast dirt track, winning by 1 ¼ lengths in 1:43.08 with a 106 speed figure. In a 5-horse field, he stalked three-wide, aimed four-wide, and pulled away from Getaway Car and Gaming. His time is slightly slower than Goal Oriented’s allowance win (1:42.79, 104 speed figure) but faster than Pay Billy’s Private Terms Stakes (1:44.98, 93 speed figure), marking him as a rising star.
San Felipe Stakes (G2) (March 1, 2025)
On March 1, 2025, Journalism won the San Felipe Stakes (G2) at Santa Anita over 1 1/16 miles on a fast dirt track by 1 ¼ lengths in 1:42.08 with a 110 speed figure. In a 5-horse field, he raced inside to three-wide, outkicking Barnes and Rodriguez. His time and speed figure surpass Goal Oriented’s allowance win (1:42.79, 104) and Gosger’s Lexington Stakes (1:44.67, 96), confirming his elite form and ability to handle middle distances.
Santa Anita Derby (G1) (April 5, 2025)
Journalism’s penultimate prep was the Santa Anita Derby (G1) on April 5, 2025, at Santa Anita over 1 1/8 miles on a fast dirt track, winning by ¾ length in 1:49.25 with a 108 speed figure. In a 5-horse field, he was shuffled and bumped at the 7/16 pole, tipped three-wide, and outbattled Baeza and Westwood. His time is faster than River Thames’s Blue Grass third (1:51.11, 103) but slower than Pay Billy’s Federico Tesio (1:52.57, 93), though his higher speed figure and graded stakes win highlight his class.
Kentucky Derby (G1) (May 3, 2025)
Journalism’s most recent race was the Kentucky Derby (G1) on May 3, 2025, at Churchill Downs over 1 1/4 miles on a sloppy dirt track, finishing 2nd in 2:02.16 with a 101 speed figure. In a 19-horse field, he raced mid-pack, bid five-wide, led briefly, and gave way late to Sovereignty, finishing ahead of Baeza. His performance mirrors Heart of Honor’s UAE Derby second (1:59.61, 109), but his ability to handle a sloppy track and large field sets him apart from Gosger and River Thames (untested on wet dirt).
Analysis of Progression
Journalism’s progression shows a horse improving steadily, moving from a debut third (1:10.50, 83 speed figure) to three consecutive graded stakes wins (106–110 speed figures) and a strong Kentucky Derby second (2:02.16, 101). His times reflect versatility: 1:36.08 at 1 mile, 1:43.08 to 1:42.08 at 1 1/16 miles, 1:49.25 at 1 1/8 miles, and 2:02.16 at 1 1/4 miles. His speed figures (83 to 110, then 101 in the Derby) are elite, surpassing Goal Oriented (104), River Thames (103), and Pay Billy (93). His closing style, evident in his San Felipe and Santa Anita Derby wins, evolved into a mid-pack rally in the Derby, showing adaptability. His ability to handle a sloppy track in the Derby is a significant advantage, unlike Gosger or River Thames, who lack wet-track experience.
His pedigree, with Curlin (2007 Preakness winner) and Uncle Mo (sire of 2016 Derby winner Nyquist), supports his stamina for 1 3/16 miles, as does his Derby performance. His consistency (6 of 6 in the money) and experience in large fields (19 in the Derby) give him an edge over Goal Oriented (2 starts) and Gosger (3 starts). His ability to overcome trouble (Santa Anita Derby bumping) mirrors Heart of Honor’s resilience in Dubai races.
Comparison to Other Contenders
Journalism’s closing style aligns with Gosger and Heart of Honor, who also rally from off the pace (Gosger’s Lexington Stakes, 1:44.67; Heart of Honor’s UAE Derby, 1:59.61). Gosger’s 2-for-3 record and Heart of Honor’s 2-for-6 are less consistent than Journalism’s 4-for-6, and their lower speed figures (96 and 109) trail his 110 peak. Goal Oriented and Pay Billy, as front-runners, could set the pace (Goal Oriented’s allowance, 1:42.79; Pay Billy’s Federico Tesio, 1:52.57), potentially benefiting Journalism’s late kick, similar to how Sovereignty overtook him in the Derby. River Thames, another closer (Blue Grass third, 1:51.11), matches Journalism’s style but lacks his graded stakes wins and wet-track form. Journalism’s 110 speed figure in the San Felipe outpaces all contenders, and his Derby second against a 19-horse field gives him more experience than Goal Oriented (10-horse max) or Clever Again (3 starts).
Looking Ahead to the Preakness Stakes
Journalism enters the 2025 Preakness Stakes as the 8-5 favorite from post 2, a favorable draw for his closing style. His pedigree, with Curlin (2007 Preakness, 1:53.46) and Uncle Mo (sire of Nyquist, 2016 Preakness second), suggests he can handle 1 3/16 miles, supported by his Derby second (2:02.16). His sloppy-track performance in the Derby gives him an edge if Pimlico turns wet, unlike Gosger, River Thames, or Clever Again (limited wet-track data). His recent workout (5 furlongs in 1:01.40 at Churchill Downs on April 27, 2025) indicates solid form.
The 8-horse Preakness field is smaller than the Derby’s 19, easing his navigation compared to Heart of Honor’s UAE Derby (9 horses). His closing style could capitalize on early speed from Goal Oriented or Pay Billy, similar to how he rallied past Baeza in the Santa Anita Derby. His 8-5 odds reflect his edge over River Thames (9-2) and Goal Oriented (6-1). Pairing him with closers like Gosger or Heart of Honor in exactas or trifectas could offer value, but his consistency and McCarthy’s training make him a prime win bet, as seen in our Preakness Stakes analysis.
