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Journalism’s Road to the 2025 Kentucky Derby: Race Progression and Key Wins
- Updated: April 25, 2025
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Journalism’s Race Progression
Journalism, a 3-year-old colt by Curlin out of Mopotism, has competed in five races leading up to the Derby, showing a strong and consistent upward trajectory. Here’s a break down of his journey chronologically to understand how his performances have evolved:
Debut and Early Development (October 27, 2024 – November 17, 2024)
Journalism debuted on October 27, 2024, at Santa Anita in a 6-furlong maiden special weight race, finishing 3rd with a time of 1:10.50. He showed a late run after racing 3-wide and then moving inside, indicating early promise as a closer but also a need for more seasoning to compete at the front of the pack. His next start on November 17 at Del Mar was a significant step forward—he won a 1-mile maiden special weight by 1 length in 1:36.08. Starting from the inside, he tipped 3-wide to reel in his foes, demonstrating improved stamina and tactical ability as he stretched out in distance.
Graded Stakes Breakthrough (December 14, 2024)
Journalism stepped up to graded stakes company in the Los Alamitos Futurity (G2) on December 14, 2024, at Los Alamitos over 1 1/16 miles. He won by 1 length in 1:43.08, taking the lead after racing 3-wide and pulling away late. This victory marked his first stakes win and showed he could handle tougher competition and a longer distance, crucial for his Derby aspirations. His ability to aim 4-wide and go “going away” suggests he was still improving and gaining confidence against quality fields.
Continued Stakes Success (March 1, 2025)
After a break, Journalism returned in the San Felipe Stakes (G2) at Santa Anita on March 1, 2025, again at 1 1/16 miles. He won by 1 length in a sharp 1:42.08, the fastest time among his races at that distance. He raced inside early, then moved 3-wide in the second turn to take control late, showcasing his versatility in running style. This performance solidified his status as a serious Derby contender, as the San Felipe is a key prep race, and his time indicates he was hitting peak form.
Peak Performance in a Major Prep (April 5, 2025)
Journalism’s most recent race was the Santa Anita Derby (G1) on April 5, 2025, at Santa Anita over 1 1/8 miles. He won by 1 length in 1:49.25, despite facing challenges—he was shuffled back and bumped at the 7/16 pole but tipped 3-wide to rally and take the lead. Beating Baeza and Westwood in a field of 5, this win earned him significant Derby points (likely 100, based on typical G1 prep scoring [Web ID: 0]) and proved he could handle adversity in a race just a furlong shy of the Derby distance. However, as we discussed previously, the smaller field size of 5 horses raises some questions about how he’ll fare in the 20-horse Derby field, where traffic trouble is more likely.
Analysis of Progression
Journalism’s progression is impressive—he’s won 4 of his 5 starts, with his only non-victory being a 3rd-place finish in his debut. He’s shown consistent improvement, moving from a maiden win to three consecutive graded stakes victories, including two Grade 2s and a Grade 1. His times have improved with each step up in distance, from 1:36.08 at 1 mile to 1:42.08 at 1 1/16 miles in the San Felipe, and finally 1:49.25 at 1 1/8 miles in the Santa Anita Derby. This suggests he’s peaking at the right time and has the stamina to handle the Derby’s 1 1/4 miles.
His running style as a closer, often rallying from mid-pack or wider paths, is a strength for the Derby, where early speed can fade in a large field. However, his Santa Anita Derby trip—getting shuffled and bumped—highlights a potential vulnerability in a 20-horse field, as you noted when we discussed this race earlier. The smaller field he faced there (5 horses) didn’t replicate the chaos of the Derby, and his ability to overcome trouble in that race will be tested at Churchill Downs.
Comparison to Other Contenders
Looking back at our discussions of other contenders, Journalism’s progression shares similarities with Sandman, who also peaked with a Grade 1 win in the Arkansas Derby (1:50.08 over 1 1/8 miles). However, Sandman has more experience, with 8 starts compared to Journalism’s 5, and has raced at Churchill Downs (albeit without a win), giving him some familiarity with the track. Journalism, on the other hand, has raced exclusively in California, which might be a slight disadvantage, though his sire Curlin’s success at Churchill Downs (2007 Preakness and Breeders’ Cup Classic) could mitigate this.
Compared to Burnham Square, who also won a Grade 1 prep (Blue Grass Stakes in 1:51.33), Journalism’s times are faster—1:49.25 versus 1:51.33 over 1 1/8 miles—suggesting he might have a speed edge. However, Burnham Square has also raced at Churchill Downs, finishing 3rd in a maiden special weight, which gives him a slight edge in track experience.
Looking Ahead to the Kentucky Derby
Journalism’s progression positions him as a top contender for the 2025 Kentucky Derby. His closing style, demonstrated consistently in his stakes wins, aligns well with the Derby’s often frenetic pace, where late runners can capitalize on fading speed horses. His pedigree, with Curlin’s stamina and Uncle Mo’s speed, supports his ability to handle the 1 1/4 miles, and Mopotism’s own success at up to 1 1/8 miles adds confidence in his distance capability.
However, a couple of concerns linger. First, his lack of experience at Churchill Downs—he’ll be seeing the track for the first time on race day, unlike Sandman and Burnham Square. Second, his ability to navigate traffic in a larger field remains untested, as we discussed after his Santa Anita Derby win. The bumping and shuffling he faced in that race didn’t derail him, but the Derby’s 20-horse field will present a greater challenge. His team might focus on gate work and positioning drills in the lead-up to ensure he can break cleanly and avoid trouble early.
Journalism’s profile as a closer makes him a strong candidate for exacta and trifecta bets, similar to the strategies we explored for Sovereignty in earlier conversations. Pairing him with early speed horses like Citizen Bull (who we predicted as a top finisher in a hypothetical Derby field) or even Sandman could yield value, especially if Journalism can rally late as he did in the Santa Anita Derby.
