2015 Belmont Stakes by the numbers

By WIZCAPPER
Updated: August 16, 2015

Mubtaahij – Completed the UAE Derby with the second-fastest of 11 races on the new Meydan dirt surface, according to Trakus. Was geared down to win in 1:58.35 for the about 1 3/16 miles, on a fast track. “He has a high cruising speed and the ability to quicken off it,” de Kock said before the Kentucky Derby. Jockey Christophe Soumillon stays home but gets the services of young rider Irad Ortiz who’s quickly become a go to rider in a tough colony of east coast jockeys. The 10 to 1 morning line seems like a generous underlay all things considered. In true Euro fashion he’s had four light breezes over the local course in the past 15 days.

Tale of Verve – Runner up to American Pharoah in the Preakness off maiden score at Keeneland. We touted this fellow heavily for that race and made a big score in the exacta. Distance will only help his chances and has been steadily improving after Stewart removed the blinkers three back. His sire ran 6th in the ’08 running when chasing eventual winner Da’Tara. Has a nice 5f bullet move a week ago. Trainer isn’t known for graded stakes scores and Rosario departs for Frosted but this guy picks up 3 time Belmont winning rider, Gary Stevens.

Madefromlucky – If there’s one angle that should never be overlooked it’s the ROT. No that’s not the kind of rot we’re talking about. Race over the track (ROT) is perhaps the strongest angle you could play especially if that race is a winning effort. Won the Peter Pan last out at 1 1/8. Broke maiden going 1 1/16 at Gulfstream. Started career at 4 1/2 furlongs. Was soundly beaten when twice facing the Pharoah. Sire won the 2010 Preakness in what was perhaps his best race in the way he won it but never beat anyone. Pletcher removed the hood for Peter Pan and will have to try and take back and rate to even have a chance in here but not sure that suits his style.

Frammento – Working like a champ the past couple of weeks at the Spa. His lone victory was a MSW last October at Keeneland. Gets his fourth top jock in as many races and Smith has won this race twice in past five years. Zito is a low percentage graded stakes trainer except when it comes to this race having found the winner’s circle in 2008 with longshot D’Tara who went gate to wire over Big Brown. And before that rounded the field with Birdstone to wear down Smarty Jones in 2005. Will be boxcars again on Saturday without the hood and figures to run much better than form indicates.

American Pharoah – What more can be said about this guy that isn’t obvious on paper? His only defeat was his opener over the fake stuff at Del Mar with the hood. Since then he’s won six straight – all with double digit Beyer’s. His Derby victory was nice – real nice – even though the margin of victory was just a length. Derby runner-up Firing Line came back to misfire in the Preakness and stays in the barn for this. He seeks to become the 12th Triple Crown winner and first since Affirmed did it last in ’78 but the test of a champion is one that can win the Classics all within the course of five weeks. Can he do it? On paper he appears to have the best chance of any of the past winners of the first 2 legs of the series since Big Brown in ’08 and we know how that turned out. Baffert was fourth in 2010 with Game On Dude and 2nd with Paynter in 2012 running.

Frosted Frosted – Son of Tapit who sired last year’s winner Tonalist. According to DRF, had “minor throat procedure” after FOY fade in race where winner was DQ’d. Came back to record 103 Beyer win in the Wood at the Big A followed by a fourth place finish in the Derby. Other win was a maiden score at Aqueduct going a mile. Breezed a bullet :47 and change at 4f three weeks ago followed by to more short breezes. Tend to think he’s better suited as one run type going 8 to 9 furlongs. Not sold on his second choice billing and Aqueduct seems to be home.

Keen Ice – The longer the distance the better his chances and Desormeaux was talking smack last week about being the upset special. Sire lost the ’07 running to the first filly to win the Belmont Rags to Riches but sire plenty capable of producing Classic distance winners in Palace Malice who took this race in 2013. Has only one win and begging to go further at a big price but Big Sandy not known for winners coming from the clouds.

Materiality – Started career with three wins in a row including the Florida Derby before a sixth place finish in the Derby under a new rider. Picked up seven places from the top of the lane to the wire in that one after a slow start. Gets regular rider in Velasquez who choose Carpe Diem over this one for the Roses. Earned the fields highest Beyer at 110 in the Fla. Derby and expected to set the pace from the outside. Sire won this race in stunning fashion in 2005 but not with the same running style as this offspring. And can’t see him getting too far away from American Pharoah to pull the wire-to-wire upset a la Da’Tara.