2016 Kentucky Oaks Analysis and Selections

Post positions were drawn yesterday for the 2016 running of the G1 $1 million Kentucky Oaks to be run on Friday in Louisville.

Rachel’s Valentina Favored in Oaks

Rachel’s Valentina has been listed as the morning line favorite at 7-2 and will break from post position 11 in a race that is wide open with three other runners all within a 1/2 point of each other.

Rachel’s Valentina is the daughter of Rachel Alexandra who won the 2009 Kentucky Oaks by a record 20+ lengths with now retired jockey Calvin Borel in the irons.

Weep No More (9-2) and Cathryn Sophia (9-2) should get plenty of attention at the betting windows having run 1st and 3rd, and split by Rachel’s Valentina in the G1 Ashland in their most recent starts.

Land Over Sea (5-1) took the G2 Fair Grounds Oaks in her most recent start but Velasquez departs to ride the favorite on Friday for Todd Pletcher.

Terra Promessa (10-1) earned the most points on the Road to the Kentucky Oaks and will break from the rail.

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2016 Kentucky Oaks Analysis

NOTE: Not in post position order

Terra Promessa – After hopping at the start she managed a third place finish in her maiden opener at Keeneland going 7 furlongs. Came back a month later at Churchill to break her maiden going two turns for the first time then promptly reeled off three wins in a row at Oaklawn including the G3 Honeybee in the slop and the G3 Fantasy. Running line comment says she was rank in the Fantasy and she barely held on to win by a neck over stablemate Taxable. Has to go a little further on Friday. She might be an underlay.
Lewis Bay – Narrowly lost maiden opener going 6 at Belmont in the mud last September. Stormed home a 6 length winner a month later going 7F then took the G2 Demoiselle at 1 1/8 miles in the 3rd start of career. Put away for 3 months and returned to finish second to sprinter Cathryn Sophia in the 7F Davona Dale at Gulfstream then returned in her second out after a layoff to take the G2 Gazelle in the mud to get her highest Bris Speed Figure 99.
Land Over Sea – Only two wins and four seconds in 8 starts BUT three of her four runner up races were to Songbird who would have been the heavy favorite if not for an injury. Won the G2 Fair Grounds Oaks in her most recent start with new rider Velasquez. Never been the distance and will have to take another big step forward to win this.
Weep No More – Started career in Louisville going 7 furlongs in the slop finishing 8th at 45 to 1 but who knew she’d win her next three in a row including the G1 Ashland at Keeneland in last when according to her running line she “swamped foes” going 1 1/6 miles in a race that had modest fractions. Adds ground today and could get the job done.
Go Maggie Go – Two wins in two starts for this lightly raced daughter of Ghostzapper. Took the 1 1/16 miles G2 Gulfstream Park Oaks in last for Romans after maiden score going 6 but sloppy track may have favored her in first two turn try.
Cathryn Sophia – Won first 4 then was third in the Ashland as heavy favorite over Rachel’s Valentina and Weep No More in a 5 horse field. Daughter of Street Boss gets another shot at her rivals but has distance concerns.
Mo d’Amour – Daughter of Uncle Mo who is well represented in this year’s class of 3YO’s didn’t show much in her two graded stakes races for Pletcher. Listed at 30 for your dollar and running lines don’t make me hollar.
Venus Valentine – Broke maiden at Ellis going 6f in first lifetime start. Stunned the crowd at 74 to 1 by winning the G2 Rachel Alexandra at Fair Grounds in February. Returned in defeat at 13 – 1 in the FG Oaks behind Land Over Sea. Would be another shocker.
Mokat – Home-bred daughter of Uncle Mo who’s only win came on the lawn at Del Mar late last year. Was runner-up to Songbird in the G1 Santa Anita Oaks in April over a sloppy course. Can’t say I blame them for trying but not buying it.
Rachel’s Valentina – Broke maiden in 6f sprint at Saratoga in first out then won the G1 7 furlong Spinaway before a second place finish to Songbird in the BC Juvenile. Returned 6 months later as runner up in the Ashland. All things considered she’s lightly raced and despite her bloodlines (by Bernardini, out of Rachel Alexandra) she may want to sprint. Lukewarm favorite needs to take step up in second start off a long layoff.
Royal Obsession – Took maiden opener at Churchill going 7 1/2 on a wet-fast track in November. Won next out at Fair Grounds going 1 mile. Was 2nd in the Gazelle in last. Each race has been at longer distances and Bris speed figures have improved steadily in each. Expect big effort.
Dream Dance – Daughter of Afleet Alex took maiden dash at Ellis last July then was moved up to graded company for remainder of year and was overmatched. Second in G2 FG Oaks two back then took a 62K NW1x allowance. Would be a surprise.
Taxable – Draws widest of all. Won maiden at CD by 7 lengths going 6 last June. Taken along slowly and returned to win OC75K/NW1X in the mud at Oaklawn going 1 mile. 2nd in the G3 Fantasy behind points leader Promessa. Third off a layoff and expect her to put in a big performance.
Paola Queen – One win, a couple of seconds and a third. Was runner up in the GP Oaks in last. Should be part of the early pace but don’t expect much else.