- Trainer PPs UPDATED
- Sire PPs UPDATED
2026 Sam F. Davis Stakes Preview
Race Overview
The Sam F. Davis Stakes (G3) is a 1 1/16-mile dirt race for 3-year-olds at Tampa Bay Downs, offering Kentucky Derby points on a 20-10-6-4-2 scale. Run on February 7, 2026, it serves as an important early prep on the Road to the Derby. The field of nine is led by morning-line favorite Renegade (8-5), with strong challenges from Confessional (2-1) and Dr. Kapur (5-1).
Pace Scenario
Pace Figures reveal a potentially hot early pace:
- Highest Early: Dr. Kapur (120), Game for It (110), The Puma (109), Confessional (101), Max Capacity (100)
- Highest Late: Renegade (100), Ocelli (89), Epic Desire (72)
Dr. Kapur and Game for It figure to duel early, with The Puma and Confessional pressing. This setup should favor horses with strong late pace or tactical speed that can sit just off the pace—primarily Renegade, Confessional, and possibly Ocelli.
Horse-by-Horse Analysis
1. Confessional (2-1 ML)
Trainer: Brad Cox Jockey: Flavien Prat
Undefeated in two starts, including a sharp allowance win at Gulfstream (Beyers 89-88). Essential Quality colt removes blinkers after pressing the pace and winning convincingly. Cox is 29% with 31-60-day layoffs and strong with routed dirt horses. Draws rail, should sit a perfect stalking trip just off the speed. Major win threat exiting “key race” that produced next-out 2026 Holy Bull winner, Nearly.
2. Epic Desire (15-1 ML)
Trainer: Todd Pletcher Jockey: Samy Camacho
Broke maiden impressively last out over track (Beyers climbing to 87). Uncle Mo colt has shown steady improvement, but previous turf tries and wide trips suggest he needs further pace help. Logical exotics player at a price, especially if the pace melts down.
3. The Puma (6-1 ML)
Trainer: Gustavo Delgado Jockey: Javier Castellano
Only one start—a fast-closing second in a Gulfstream maiden (90 Beyer). Essential Quality colt has trained forwardly and adds Castellano. Will be forwardly placed; if he relaxes early, he could upset at a square price. Live first-time-in-stakes runner.
4. Game for It (20-1 ML)
Trainer: Chad Summers Jockey: Luis Rivera Jr.
Speedy Known Agenda colt won a 6f claimer at Aqueduct, but stretching out to two turns for the first time with high early pace figure (110). Likely to be part of the early pace battle and could soften up the leaders, but vulnerable late.
5. Ocelli (12-1 ML)
Trainer: Whitworth Beckman Jockey: Jose Ramos
Consistent closer has hit the board in all three starts, including strong rallies at Fair Grounds (Beyers in mid-80s). Highest late pace figure among closers after Renegade (89). Needs a hot pace to flatten out the front-runners. Dangerous underneath in exotics.
6. Renegade (8-5 ML) – TOP PICK
Trainer: Todd Pletcher Jockey: Irad Ortiz Jr.
Into Mischief colt cost $975,000 and has already shown graded-stakes quality: second in the Remsen (G2) after a wide trip, and disqualified from first in his prior start (still strong effort). Highest late pace figure (100), proven at the distance, top trainer-jockey combo (Pletcher 18% in stakes, Ortiz 19% in 2025-26 routes). Draws mid-pack, should get perfect stalking trip. Deserves favoritism and looks toughest to beat.
7. Wayne’s Law (30-1 ML)
Trainer: Amador Sanchez Jockey: Marcos Meneses
Florida-bred won two state-bred stakes but was no threat when stretched out in open company (Jean Lafitte). Longshot needing major improvement against this group.
8. Max Capacity (30-1 ML)
Trainer: Richard Sillaman Jockey: Jeiron Toledo
Speedy Maxfield colt won twice sprinting but has been inconsistent stretching out; fourth in the Mucho Macho Man last out. Likely to press early but has faded in prior route tries.
9. Dr. Kapur (5-1 ML)
Trainer: Saffie Joseph Jr. Jockey: Samuel Marin
McKinzie colt dominated his maiden but weakened to sixth in the Kentucky Jockey Club (G2) after setting fast fractions. Highest early pace figure (120)—will be winging it on the front end. If left alone, dangerous; if pressed hard, likely to fold late.
Betting Strategy & Selections
Win/Top Pick: #6 Renegade
Next Best: #1 Confessional
Live Longshots/Value: #3 The Puma, #5 Ocelli
Best Exotics Plays:
- Exacta Box: 6 with 1,3,9
- Trifecta Key: 6 / 1,3,5,9 / 1,3,5,9
- Superfecta small play: 6,1 / 6,1,3,9 / 6,1,3,9 / 2,3,5,9
Renegade looks like the most complete horse with proven two-turn stakes form, the best late kick, and ideal post/trip setup. Confessional is the main danger if able to sit off the hot pace, while The Puma and Ocelli offer value underneath. Expect a fair track with no reported weather issues as of morning line. Good luck!
Performance Analysis Summary
| Horse | Overall Performance Index (OPI) | Recent Speed Figure | Competitive Grade |
| 1 Confessional | High | 88 | B+ (Proven in Allowance) |
| 2 Epic Desire | Moderate | 71 | C+ (Recent Maiden Winner) |
| 3 The Puma | High | 86 | B- (Exciting Maiden Runner-up) |
| 6 Renegade | Elite | 82 (Remsen) | A- (Grade 2 Placed) |
| 9 Dr. Kapur | High | 62 (KYJC) / 87 (Kee) | B+ (Stakes Experienced) |
FPPS (Fair Price Probability Score)
| Horse | Win Probability | Fair Odds (FPPS) | Morning Line | Value Assessment |
| 6 Renegade | 38% | 8-5 | 8-5 | Fair |
| 1 Confessional | 22% | 7-2 | 2-1 | Undervalued |
| 3 The Puma | 15% | 6-1 | 6-1 | Fair |
| 9 Dr. Kapur | 12% | 8-1 | 5-1 | Overvalued |
| Field/Other | 13% | — | — | — |
Get the Edge. Bet the Edge.
Keep an eye on track bias during the early races on Saturday at Tampa Bay Downs. They could be the key to picking the Sam Davis winner.
Click here to access racing data for the Sam F. Davis Stakes. See the free past performances for Todd Pletcher or Brad Cox.
