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UPDATE: Kentucky Derby Future Wager Pool 3 2021

Churchill Downs returns post COVID-19 with Maxfield in the G3 Matt Winn
Friday, February 12th 12PM ET – Sunday, February 14th, 6PM ET

WizCapper’s Analysis of Kentucky Derby Future Wager Pool 3 betting interests after the Risen Star results.

Kentucky Derby 147 Future Wager Pool 3 – *Odds updated February 14, 2021 7:30 AM

No. Horse ML Odds Updated Odds*
1 Caddo River 12-1 20-1
Keep an eye on price at closing time. If he stays here or higher – take it.
2 Candy Man Rocket 20-1 37-1
Going up as expected.
3 Concert Tour 20-1 15-1
Nothing that happened yesterday in the preps indicates a reason for the drop in price. If he keeps going down, wait until Derby Day.
4 Dream Shake 20-1 32-1
With only 1 race in the books, if you can imagine a scenario for him you can bet him going up.
5 Essential Quality 8-1 7-1
BC Juvenile winner drops only 1 point after Rombauer won the El Camino Real yesterday exiting the Juvenile. Should be going up in price. Wait.
6 Fire At Will 50-1 27-1
Dropped 23 points to open today but this is a “future wager” on a horse who’s a proven turf runner. Pass.
7 Freedom Fighter 20-1 48-1
Going up as expected. Not a Derby distance horse
8 Greatest Honour 15-1 9-1
Big drop in price for son of 9th place finisher Tapit in 2004 Derby. Holy Bull win LTO was nice. But you could get 9-1 on Derby Day without the risk he doesn’t make it to the gate.
9 Highly Motivated 20-1 45-1
No interest on this Brown runner, yet. Will have to go two turns soon or else he’s out. Pass
10 Hot Rod Charlie 20-1 38-1
2nd place finisher in BC Juvenile going up in price. Lowers expectations for Essential Quality.
11 Jackie’s Warrior 30-1 25-1
Broke maiden sprinting at CD in first attempt. Then reeled off three graded wins to enter Juvenile starting gate as heavy favorite. Fell short at the added distance. If you think this one will get better as they get longer, then go for it at 20-1 or higher.
12 Keepmeinmind 20-1 20-1
Scratched from the Risen Star yesterday so nothing to go on. But gut tells me he’s not the one.
13 Life Is Good 8-1 7-1
Too short to play in futures
14 Mandaloun 30-1 20-1
Dropped 10 after winning the Risen Star. If he gets to the Derby he’ll be less than 20 but wouldn’t take less today.
15 Medina Spirit 20-1 24-1
If you’re betting Baffert and you like longshots, this is your guy. But we’ll pass.
16 Midnight Bourbon 30-1 30-1
Had to chase an unsuspecting leader in Risen Star and faded to 3rd. He’s a sprinter. Pass
17 Nova Rags 30-1 88-1
If this one and Candy Man are Mott’s hopes then he has none. Pass.
18 Prevalence 20-1 12-1
Remember, this is the futures so while 12 might look good today, it’s not enough this far out
19 Risk Taking 15-1 28-1
Going up as he should. Tough to like NY circuit runners in Louisville.
20 Roman Centurian 30-1 46-1
Only win was with Lasix. If he needs it, he won’t get it in the Derby.
21 Senor Buscador 30-1 28-1
Risen Star was a flop. He’s not Derby material.
22 Swiftsure 30-1 93-1
Can Asmussen make a late move with this guy? At 100-1 he’s worth a $20.
23 The Great One 20-1 37-1
Not sure who “The Great One” is but sire won the Derby. Needed Lasix to break maiden LTO. Pass.
24 All Other 3-Yr Olds 7/2 4-1
Pool 3, so price is going up. But if the eventual Derby winner is somewhere in the “all others” than you’ll get much more than 4-1 on him.

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