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Recapping Future Wager Pool 3 Final Odds

Churchill Downs returns post COVID-19 with Maxfield in the G3 Matt Winn

WizCapper’s Analysis of Kentucky Derby Future Wager Pool 3 betting interests after the close of betting.

No. Horse ML Odds Updated Odds* Closing Odds
1. Caddo River 12 20 15
Keep an eye on price at closing time. If he stays here or higher – take it. UPDATE: 15-1 is a good speculative price that he’ll be able to get 1 1/8 miles or more. But that’s a “gamble.”
2. Candy Man Rocket 20 37 35
Going up as expected. He should be in the “field.”
3. Concert Tour 20 15 17
Nothing that happened yesterday in the preps indicates a reason for the drop in price. If he keeps going down, wait until Derby Day. UPDATE: Went up late. But it’s Baffert.
4. Dream Shake 20 32 28
With only 1 race in the books, if you can imagine a scenario for him you can bet him going up. Good closing odds.
5. Essential Quality 8 7 8
BC Juvenile winner drops only 1 point after Rombauer won the El Camino Real yesterday exiting the Juvenile. Should be going up in price. Wait. UPDATE: Seems waiting is the right move on him.
6. Fire At Will 50 27 30
Dropped 23 points to open today but this is a “future wager” on a horse who’s a proven turf runner. Pass. UPDATE: Somebody imagined him a winner and dropped a bet on him. Still passing.
7. Freedom Fighter 20 48 52
Going up as expected. Not a Derby distance horse. UPDATE: Baffert runner going up and should be in the “field.”
8. Greatest Honour 15 9 9
Big drop in price for son of 9th place finisher Tapit in 2004 Derby. Holy Bull win LTO was nice. But you could get 9-1 on Derby Day without the risk he doesn’t make it to the gate.
9. Highly Motivated 20 45 37
No interest on this Brown runner, yet. Will have to go two turns soon or else he’s out. Pass
10. Hot Rod Charlie 20 38 35
2nd place finisher in BC Juvenile going up in price. Lowers expectations for Essential Quality.
11. Jackie’s Warrior 30 25 26
Broke maiden sprinting at CD in first attempt. Then reeled off three graded wins to enter Juvenile starting gate as heavy favorite. Fell short at the added distance. If you think this one will get better as they get longer, then go for it at 20-1 or higher.
12. Keepmeinmind 20 20 25
Scratched from the Risen Star yesterday so nothing to go on. But gut tells me he’s not the one.
13. Life Is Good 8 7 7
Too short to play in futures
14. Mandaloun 30 20 16
Dropped 10 after winning the Risen Star. If he gets to the Derby he’ll be less than 20 but wouldn’t take less today.
15. Medina Spirit 20 24 25
If you’re betting Baffert and you like longshots, this is your guy. But we’ll pass.
16. Midnight Bourbon 30 30 41
Had to chase an unsuspecting leader in Risen Star and faded to 3rd. He’s a sprinter. Pass
17. Nova Rags 30 88 91
If this one and Candy Man are Mott’s hopes then he has none. Pass.
18. Prevalence 20 12 14
Remember, this is the futures so while 12 might look good today, it’s not enough this far out
19. Risk Taking 15 28 25
Going up as he should. Tough to like NY circuit runners in Louisville.
20. Roman Centurian 30 46 41
Only win was with Lasix. If he needs it, he won’t get it in the Derby.
21. Senor Buscador 30 28 39
Risen Star was a flop. He’s not Derby material.
22. Swiftsure 30 93 74
Can Asmussen make a late move with this guy? At 100-1 he’s worth a $20. UPDATE: Someone took a shot late.
23. The Great One 20 37 38
Not sure who “The Great One” is but sire won the Derby. Needed Lasix to break maiden LTO. Pass.
24. All Other 3-Yr Olds 7/2 4 3
Pool 3, so price is going up. But if the eventual Derby winner is somewhere in the “all others” than you’ll get much more than 4-1 on him. UPDATE: 3-1 is better than 0-1 — unless one of the “outsiders” wins.

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