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Kentucky Derby Future Wager Pool 3 2021

Churchill Downs returns post COVID-19 with Maxfield in the G3 Matt Winn
Friday, February 12th 12PM ET – Sunday, February 14th, 6PM ET

WizCapper’s Opening Odds Preview of Kentucky Derby Future Wager Pool 3

1. Caddo River – Won the Smarty Jones and a 1 mile maiden outing at Churchill before that for leading trainer Cox. Hard Spun prodigy, like their sire have proven to be “distance deficient” on Derby Day. But the annual Smarty Jones winner has proven to be a tough competitor on the first Saturday in May. If Cox can win the Arkansas Derby with this one he won’t be anywhere near 12-1 in Louisville.

2. Candy Man Rocket – Bet down in the Sam F. Davis and got the win last weekend to make it two in a row for Mott. Sentamentalists who scored at 3-1 in that one might want to take a stab at him in Future Wagering but he’ll need to prove he belongs on the trail as the races get tougher this Spring.

3. Concert Tour – Baffert looks to have another star in this Street Sense son out of a Tapit mare. Winner of both starts this year, he could be Rosario’s ticket to the winner’s circle in America’s greatest horse race. Odds on favorite in his wins at Santa Anita, he’s worth a bet in here at 20-1.

4. Dream Shake – Won his maiden voyage last out at Santa Anita making him 1 for 1. He was 20-1 that day so guessing the field wasn’t a plethora of talent.

5. Essential Quality – Godolphin homebred is undefeated in three including the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile at Keeneland to close out the ’20 season. 8-1 in the Pool 3 morning line and will probably close lower by 6PM on Valentine’s Day and anything close to 8 makes him an underlay this early.

6. Fire At Will – He’s 50-1 to open because he’s a turf specialist. But does have a turf-to-dirt victory at Saratoga as a maiden vs. winners. Winner of the BC Juvenile Turf last time out, he’s bred top and bottom for the lawn.

7. Freedom Fighter – Hung on to take a 5f sprint at Del Mar by a head before stretching out to 7 in the San Vicente to finish a 1/2 length back of stablemate Concert Tour. Both open at 20-1 in here but don’t see both making it to the Derby.

8. Greatest Honour – Failed in first three trips to the track before taking last two for HOF trainer McGaughey. Another Tapit 3-Year old who was impressive winning the G3 Holy Bull last month. Has the right one-run style to wear the Roses. But lost first two to Caddo River who looks good to win today if this was the Derby field. Still, at 15-1 or more, would be a decent future wager.

9. Highly Motivated – Winner of the Nyquist Stakes on Breeders’ Cup 2020 Day at Keeneland last time. And broke maiden time before at Belmont – both wins sprinting. Hasn’t been tested to date so don’t know much about his ability. The second and third place finishers from the Nyquist came back to win next out — that’s always a good sign. Worth a future wager at 15-1 or more.

10. Hot Rod Charlie – Sire lost the Derby, then won the Preakness before falling short in 2013 Triple Crown tries. Trained by two-time Kentucky Derby winning trainer O’Neill, he’s 1 for 6 at the track. Finished 2nd to Essential Quaility in the BC Juvenile at 95-1 — but he’s only 20-1 in here. Wouldn’t take less than 30-1 in here.

11. Jackie’s Warrior – Failed as the favorite in the BC Juvenile off four consecutive victories in Kentucky and New York. Tried to rate in last but speed and the lead is his friend. 30-1 seems like the right price to expect if he were to make it to the Derby.

12. Keepmeinmind – The KYJC winner is always a good choice in the Kentucky Derby. He’ll open at 20-1. If you can get anything close to that take it, towards a future run in the Derby.

13. Life Is Good – Son of Into Mischief, who will no doubt be well represented in the 2021 Kentucky Derby, is a two-time winner for Baffert and HOF jockey Smith. Winner of this year’s Sham, he has the potential to be much lower than 8-1 at the window on Derby Day.

14. Mandaloun – Will need to be tested more as we go down the Road. Winner of the Fair Grounds Lecomte last time out, he’s been less than or even money in his three lifetime starts. Today he’s 30-1, so if you think he’ll get better, go for it.

15. Medina Spirit – Runner up in the Sham behind stablemate Life Is Good before taking the RB Lewis. His early foot offers opportunity and can see him taking to a sloppy track. But he isn’t one of Baffert’s strongest.

16. Midnight Bourbon – Maiden winner at Ellis Park last summer makes him 30-1 in here. Took the Lecomte on the lead. But can’t make a case for him today.

17. Nova Rags – Face stablemate Candy Man Rocket in defeat last time in the Davis. Can’t see him as a future wager.

18. Prevalence – Nice first out score last month at Gulfstream. Always looking for Godolphins first Derby winner and this guy could develop into a good one. If you get 15-1 or more, take it for a future chance to score at a nice price.

19. Risk Taking – If Brown gets this one to the ‘big dance’ on Derby Day, his 15-1 today could be a steal in May. Love that he’s developing early at long distances and if he keeps moving forward. Could be the one.

20. Roman Centurian – Came running in the Lewis to miss by a neck. Not a big fan of Empire Maker’s offspring at the Derby distance.

21. Senor Buscador – Not sure why he’s a separate betting interest from the ‘all others’ despite his impressive ‘circling’ the field win in the Springboard Mile at Remington last time.

22. Swiftsure – Son of Uncle Mo sprints to victory twice for Asmussen as he looks to take him longer on the Road to the Derby. It’s still way too early to handicap the race – but speculation at 30-1 or higher could be worth a buck or two.

23. The Great One – Took several attempts to get the win for O’Neill last time out. Beat three others by 14 that day. But anything less than 50-1 wouldn’t be worth a bet to the future.

24. All Others – If this was Pool 1 and you could get 7-2 at the close, it would be a steal. But this is Pool 3 – be careful.

Kentucky Derby 147 Future Wager Pool 3 – Morning Line Odds

No. Horse ML Odds
1. Caddo River 12-1
2. Candy Man Rocket 20-1
3. Concert Tour 20-1
4. Dream Shake 20-1
5. Essential Quality 8-1
6. Fire At Will 50-1
7. Freedom Fighter 20-1
8. Greatest Honour 15-1
9. Highly Motivated 20-1
10. Hot Rod Charlie 20-1
11. Jackie’s Warrior 30-1
12. Keepmeinmind 20-1
13. Life Is Good 8-1
14. Mandaloun 30-1
15. Medina Spirit 20-1
16. Midnight Bourbon 30-1
17. Nova Rags 30-1
18. Prevalence 20-1
19. Risk Taking 15-1
20. Roman Centurian 30-1
21. Senor Buscador 30-1
22. Swiftsure 30-1
23. The Great One 20-1
24. All Other 3-Yr Olds 7/2

Free Brisnet Past Performances

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