Derby Trail: Solomini Returns in Rebel

By WIZCAPPER
Updated: March 16, 2018

Sandwiched in between two days of racing in the rain on Friday and Sunday in Hot Springs, there’s a chance for clear skies on Saturday afternoon when a field of 11 three-year-old Kentucky Derby hopefuls make their way to the starting gate for the G2 $900,000 Rebel Stakes at Oaklawn.

Hot Springs, Arkansas weather forecast for Friday, Saturday and Sunday

Zing Zang, the 3-year-old son of Tapit, has started five times for trainer Steve Asmussen and owner Jackpot Ranch, who are hoping for a fast track for the ‘heavy horse’ in training who has a ‘body type that doesn’t necessarily appreciate a quagmire.’

If the forecast is right, and the track dries up enough, there’s a chance we could see an improved performance from Zing Zang off his fifth place finish here last time out in the G3 Southwest Stakes behind My Boy Jack who will skip the Rebel.

The Rebel is worth 85 points to the top four finishers (50-20-10-5) each with hopes of making the Top Twenty Kentucky Derby 2018 horses to enter the starting gate on May 5.

2018 Rebel Stakes Field, Odds & Analysis

Title Ready – Finished seven back of FOY winner Promises Fulfilled in second career start. Broke maiden next time out at Keeneland going 7 furlongs last October. Ended 2017 with a nice try going 1 mile at Churchill finishing 3rd as the favorite. Won his last start to open 2018 going 1 1/16 miles here when adding blinkers and gets new rider in Ortiz who is riding 14% winners for Asmussen at Oaklawn. That was a nice race for the first start after a couple months layoff. Homebred steps up BIG in here but plenty capable with positive trip over the track and at 8 to 1 he could payoff big for top connections.
Curlin’s Honor – Two starts, two wins so far for this Casse runner. Will be stretching out for the first time after taking a 6f dash at Fair Grounds in which he closed on a sloppy track. Gets new rider in Geroux for this step up but can’t say he’s got a shot in here at 12 to 1.
Solomini – Heavy favorite at 3 to 2, this Baffert runner is battle tested having faced the top three contenders on the leaderboard for the 2018 Kentucky Derby. Won his first career start at Del Mar before finding himself 8 lengths back of current Derby favorite Bolt d’Oro in the G1 Front Runner. But was able to turn it around on the ‘Bolt’ next time out in the BC Juvenile won by Good Magic who is currently third in our poll of the Top 20 Contenders poll. But the most promising performance was his 2017 finale in which he made a three-wide bid in the Los Al Futurity to sweep past his stablemate McKinzie only to be DQ’d by a controversial call by the stewards. Obvious favorite exits key race but there’s no shortage of challengers in a race that doesn’t usually draw the top contenders.
Magnum Moon – Pletcher performer will try to follow in the footsteps of Malagacy who took this race last year for the Toddster to make it three-in-a-row before a 5th place finish in the Arkansas Derby, and his final start on the 2017 Derby trail. But this son of Malibu Moon, by an Unbridled’s Song mare, looks a little different than his Rebel winning predecessor. He comes in with a win LTO at 1 mile 40 yards while looking like he can go further. Regressed in the Beyer category from his race one to race two win at Tampa in a $75KOC and steps up into the stakes ranks as the 7 to 2 second choice. But if he’s second choice over the 3 or 4 others who have already contested graded company what does it say about them, and for that matter, the quality of this race as a Derby prep.
Higher Power – They’re coming out of the woodwork to try graded company, including this youngster by Medaglia d’Oro for Pin Oak Stables. Steadily improving speed figures are much lower than they need to be to win this one but has the race and the win LTO over the track for Von Hemmel barn and looks promising down the line at 20 to 1.
Pryor – At 30 to 1, he’s not the longest shot on the board but he is second. Broke maiden last time out in his 4th trip to the track here over a muddy 1 mile distance showing an affinity for the off going and a sudden propensity to be on the lead while improving 15 Beyer points. Tough to go maiden vs. winners anytime, but especially not this time.
Sporting Chance – Speedy son of Tiznow out of a Candy Ride mare came up a length short in his maiden voyage at Churchill last summer. Took next out at Saratoga for Lukas who already has a promising Derby contender in Bravazo. Was able to go a little longer to win the Hopeful in his next out over Free Drop Billy who proved he’s not a Derby horse in the Gotham. Placed on the shelf for 5 months before returning in the G3 Southwest in his last start when finishing 3rd behind the Desormeaux runner My Boy Jack. Gets Johnny V. for this one and at 5 to 1 he looks like his name says it all in here.
High North – Love the fact that this guy was 4th two races back in the KYJC behind Enticed, et al, because that race has proved key on the Derby trail beginning with Promises Fulfilled winning the FOY, Quip taking the Tampa Bay Derby, and Enticed showing superiority in the Gotham. Gets new rider in Stevens for 29% trainer Cox and is on the improve adding 13 Beyer points from his KYJC start to his last outing in the Risen Star. Like his chances to hit the board and the potential to close out exotics at 12 to 1.
Zing Zang – As was said in the opener, Asmussen’s hoping for a dry, fast track for this son of ‘America’s most valuable stallion‘ who comes from far, far back. Sire raced only six times in his career, and winning just three, with his biggest coming in the ’04 Wood Memorial. Finished 9th in the Derby that year over a muddy track behind Smarty Jones, before calling it quits after another disappointing finish in the Pennsylvania Derby. There’s not a whole lot of speed in here and has to make up 4 lengths on stablemate Combatant so 20 to 1 seems legit for a guy who will probably outrun his odds for top trainer.
Combatant – Beat stablemate Zing Zang when finishing second in the Southwest LTO Has tactical speed for this and looking to break through after three consecutive runner up finishes. Wide draw will have him hung out and hoping to get in the clear going into the first turn but won’t be able to beat Sporting Chance to that stalking spot behind probable pacesetter Solomini. 8 to 1 and don’t see him being the right Asmussen runner to carry the barn home in this or in the Derby.
Bode’s Maker – Has the most starts of any horse in the field at nine. And at 50 to 1 there is no explanation for his entry in to this race. Full stop.