Monmouth: 2025 Haskell Stakes Analysis, Picks, Free PPs

Haskell Stakes (G1) for three-year-olds at 1 1/8 miles on dirt with a $1,000,000 purse. The field includes Bracket Buster (PP1), Journalism (PP2), Wildncrazynight (PP3), Burnham Square (PP4), National Law (PP5), Gosger (PP6), Kentucky Outlaw (PP7), and Goal Oriented (PP8).

1. Bracket Buster (PP1, 10/1)

• Profile: 3-year-old colt, 7 starts (2-1-1), Composite Rating 131.8 (6th), best Performance Rating 96.
• Strengths:
• Won the Pegasus Stakes (1 1/16 miles) at Monmouth on June 14, 2025, with a Performance Rating of 96, showing local success.
• Early speed style (E 7) aligns with the race’s Early Pace Benchmarks (E1 94, E2 103), with E1 87, E2 89, and Late Pace 101 in the Pegasus.
• PP1 has a 16.5% win rate, favorable for his inside draw.
• Trainer Victoria Oliver’s 18% win rate in routes with jockey John Velazquez is a positive.
• Weaknesses:
• Best Performance Rating (96) is below the race’s benchmark (103), trailing top contenders.
• Trainer’s graded stakes record is weak (3% wins in 70 starts).
• Class jump from Listed to Grade 1 is a challenge.
• Analysis: Bracket Buster’s early speed and Monmouth win make him a pace factor, but his lower Performance Ratings and trainer’s poor graded stakes record suggest he’ll struggle to hold off closers. Likely to lead early but fade late.

2. Journalism (PP2, 4/5)

• Profile: 3-year-old colt, 8 starts (5-2-1), Composite Rating 156.1 (1st), best Performance Rating 108.
• Strengths:
• Highest Composite Rating and best Performance Rating (108 in Belmont, Preakness, SA Derby), meeting or exceeding the benchmark (103).
• Consistent in Grade 1s: won SA Derby, 2nd in Kentucky Derby, Preakness, and Belmont (E1 88-90, E2 100-106, Late Pace 88-107).
• PP2 has a 16.5% win rate, advantageous for his draw.
• Trainer Michael McCarthy’s 16% graded stakes win rate and 33% with beaten favorites are strong.
• Jockey Umberto Rispoli’s big-race experience adds reliability.
• Weaknesses:
• Failed as the favorite in the Preakness and Kentucky Derby, though he ran well (2nd).
• No Monmouth starts, but shipper stats (18% win rate) offset this.
• Analysis: Journalism is the class of the field with top Performance Ratings and Grade 1 consistency. His pressing style (P 3) allows him to stalk or close, making him the horse to beat.

3. Wildncrazynight (PP3, 30/1)

• Profile: 3-year-old gelding, 10 starts (2-3-1), Composite Rating 126.8 (8th), best Performance Rating 92.
• Strengths:
• Local experience: 4 starts at Monmouth (1-2-1), including 2nd in the Pegasus Stakes.
• Early speed (E 8) could keep him close early (E1 87, E2 86 in Pegasus).
• Trainer Dan Ward’s 20% win rate in second route races is a plus.
• Weaknesses:
• Best Performance Rating (92) is well below the benchmark (103).
• Poor graded stakes record (0% wins in 3 starts).
• PP3 has a lower 11.3% win rate.
• Beaten by weaker horses in recent races.
• Analysis: Wildncrazynight’s early speed and Monmouth experience are assets, but his low Performance Ratings and lack of graded stakes success make him a longshot. Likely to press early but fade.

4. Burnham Square (PP4, 5/1)

• Profile: 3-year-old gelding, 8 starts (3-2-1), Composite Rating 143.5 (4th), best Performance Rating 101.
• Strengths:
• Won the Blue Grass (G1) and Holy Bull (G3), with Performance Ratings of 97 and 101 (E1 85-93, E2 94-101, Late Pace 75-100).
• PP4 has a 16.7% win rate, solid for distance races.
• Trainer Ian Wilkes’ 24% win rate in routes with jockey Brian Hernandez Jr. is strong.
• 2nd in the Matt Winn (G3) last out shows current form.
• Weaknesses:
• Best Performance Rating (101) is slightly below the benchmark (103) and trails Journalism.
• No Monmouth experience, though shipper stats (15% win rate) are decent.
• 6th in the Kentucky Derby (Performance Rating 92) suggests limitations at the top level.
• Analysis: Burnham Square’s Grade 1 win and consistency make him a contender. His pressing style (P 3) suits the distance, and he could rally if the pace is fast. A strong each-way chance.

5. National Law (PP5, 20/1)

• Profile: 3-year-old colt, 5 starts (2-0-0), best Performance Rating 87.
• Strengths:
• Won an optional claimer at Pimlico (1 mile) on May 11, 2025, with a Performance Rating of 87.
• PP5 has a strong 18.3% win rate.
• Sharp 4F workout (Jul-12) indicates readiness.
• Weaknesses:
• Best Performance Rating (87) is well below the benchmark (103).
• 4th in the Pegasus Stakes shows he’s outclassed.
• Trainer Jorge Duarte Jr.’s 0% win rate in graded stakes (5 starts) is a concern.
• Analysis: National Law’s recent win and good post position are positives, but his low Performance Ratings and lack of graded stakes success make him a longshot.

6. Gosger (PP6, 9/2)

• Profile: 3-year-old colt, 4 starts (2-2-0), Composite Rating 145.8 (3rd), best Performance Rating 106.
• Strengths:
• Won the Lexington (G3) and ran 2nd in the Preakness (G1), with a Performance Rating of 106, close to the benchmark (103).
• Early/presser style (E/P 7) fits the distance (E1 85-97, E2 89-111).
• PP6 has the highest win rate (18.8%).
• Trainer Brendan Walsh’s 12% graded stakes win rate is solid.
• Weaknesses:
• No Monmouth starts, though shipper stats (17% win rate) help.
• 60+ day layoff since May 17, 2025, could affect sharpness.
• Analysis: Gosger’s strong Performance Ratings and favorable post position make him a serious contender. His early speed should keep him prominent, with a chance to challenge late.

7. Kentucky Outlaw (PP7, 15/1)

• Profile: 3-year-old colt, 5 starts (3-0-1), Composite Rating 142.4 (5th), best Performance Rating 102.
• Strengths:
• Won the Long Branch Stakes at Monmouth (1 1/16 miles) with a Performance Rating of 91.
• Best Performance Rating (102 in an OC race) is close to the benchmark (103).
• Trainer Felissa Dunn’s 36% win rate in 2025 and 43% with beaten favorites are notable.
• Sharp 4F workout (Jul-12) suggests readiness.
• Weaknesses:
• PP7 has a poor 6.0% win rate, a significant drawback.
• 3rd in the Delaware Derby (Listed) as the favorite shows vulnerability.
• Limited graded stakes experience.
• Analysis: Kentucky Outlaw’s Monmouth win and near-benchmark Performance Rating make him competitive, but the poor post position hurts his chances. Needs a clean trip to hit the board.

8. Goal Oriented (PP8, 4/1)

• Profile: 3-year-old colt, 3 starts (2-0-0), Composite Rating 147.0 (2nd), best Performance Rating 104.
• Strengths:
• Won an optional claimer at Churchill Downs (1 1/16 miles) with a Performance Rating of 104, exceeding the benchmark (103).
• Trainer Bob Baffert’s 28% graded stakes win rate and 33% in 2025 are elite.
• Jockey Flavien Prat’s 33% win rate in this race is a major plus.
• Sharp 5F workout (Jul-11) indicates peak form.
• Weaknesses:
• PP8 has a low 11.1% win rate.
• No Monmouth experience, though Baffert’s 29% shipper win rate helps.
• 4th in the Preakness (Performance Rating 99) after traffic issues suggests he needs a clean run.
• Analysis: Goal Oriented’s high Composite Rating, strong Performance Rating, and Baffert’s expertise make him a top contender. His early/presser style (E/P 5) should keep him close, but the outside post requires a tactical ride.

Race Dynamics and Pace Scenario

Using the Early Pace Benchmarks (E1 94, E2 103) and Late Pace Benchmarks (93/103), the pace will likely be set by Bracket Buster (E 7, E1 87) and Wildncrazynight (E 8, E1 87). Gosger (E/P 7, E1 85-97) and Kentucky Outlaw (E/P 5, E1 89-106) can press, while Journalism (P 3, E2 100-106) and Burnham Square (P 3, E2 94-101) will stalk and rally. National Law (E/P 5, E1 81-84) and Goal Oriented (E/P 5, E1 88-97) have flexibility but may face challenges from wider posts. The 1 1/8-mile distance favors horses with strong Late Pace figures (Journalism, Gosger, Goal Oriented), as the early leaders may tire if the pace exceeds the E2 benchmark (103).

Handicapping Rankings

1. Journalism (PP2): Top Performance Rating (108), Grade 1 consistency, and a favorable post make him the clear favorite.
2. Goal Oriented (PP8): Baffert’s training, Prat’s riding, and a 104 Performance Rating make him a strong contender despite the outside post.
3. Gosger (PP6): Performance Rating of 106 and the best post position (18.8% win rate) give him a shot to upset, though the layoff is a concern.
4. Burnham Square (PP4): Grade 1 win and solid form keep him in the mix, but his 101 Performance Rating is slightly below the top tier.
5. Kentucky Outlaw (PP7): Monmouth win and 102 Performance Rating are promising, but the 6.0% win rate for PP7 is a hurdle.
6. Bracket Buster (PP1): Early speed and local win help, but a 96 Performance Rating and weak trainer stats limit him.
7. National Law (PP5): Low Performance Rating (87) and no graded stakes success make him a longshot.
8. Wildncrazynight (PP3): Monmouth experience is a plus, but a 92 Performance Rating and poor graded stakes form relegate him to the bottom.

Betting Recommendations

• Win/Place: Journalism (4/5) is the top pick due to his class, Performance Ratings, and post position. Goal Oriented (4/1) offers value for place bets.
• Exacta Box: Journalism, Goal Oriented, Gosger. These three have the best Performance Ratings and post positions.
• Longshot for Exotics: Burnham Square (5/1) for trifecta/superfecta, given his Grade 1 win and trainer stats.
• Avoid: Wildncrazynight and National Law, as their Performance Ratings are too low for this level.

Final Prediction

Journalism is the horse to beat, with superior Performance Ratings and proven Grade 1 form. Goal Oriented and Gosger are dangerous, but their post positions and layoff concerns (for Gosger) give Journalism the edge. Burnham Square is a solid exotics candidate.

Disclaimer: Gambling involves risk. Bet responsibly. Picks are based on free past performances handicapping, historical data, and our proprietary algorithm. TheFreePPs.com provides links to publicly available racing data and is not affiliated with linked sites. All wagering should be done responsibly. TheFreePPs.com is not responsible for losses incurred using this information.

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