Del Mar: San Clemente Handicap (G2) Analysis, Predictions, Free PPs

Race Overview

The San Clemente Handicap (G2) is a one-mile turf race for three-year-old fillies at Del Mar, with a purse of $200,000, set for Saturday, July 19, 2025, at 6:03 PM PDT. The field of nine runners is competitive, featuring proven turf performers and a few stepping up in class or switching surfaces. Using free past performances, 50 years of handicapping expertise, historical data, and a proprietary algorithm, this analysis evaluates the contenders, predicts the outcome, and provides wagering strategies tailored to the available betting options: $1 Exacta, $2 Quinella, $0.50 Trifecta, $1 Superfecta (10c min), $2 WPS Parlay, $2 Rolling Double, $3 Late Pick Three, and $1 3×3.

Analysis of Contenders

1. Will Then (4/1)

• Composite Rating: 140.0 (3rd)
• Strengths: Consistent turf record (5-3-0-0, $170,271), with wins in the China Doll Stakes (1m, SA) and Jimmy Durante (G3, DMR). Trainer Jonathan Thomas has a 22% win rate on turf (439 starts), and jockey Mike E. Smith is a Hall of Famer. The rail post wins at a 21% clip, and a sharp 4F workout (:46.8, Jul-12) signals readiness.
• Concerns: Hasn’t raced since May 2, 2025 (76 days), potentially affecting sharpness. Performance Ratings (84 avg.) are solid but trail top contenders. Fifth in last start (Edgewood-G2) suggests difficulty against elite fields.
• Running Style: E/P (early/presser) – stalks close to the pace.
• Fit: Proven at Del Mar (1-1-0-0) and the distance. Needs a career-best to win but should be forwardly placed.

2. Casalu (6/1)

• Composite Rating: 145.6 (2nd)
• Strengths: Highest turf Performance Rating (90, SweetLifeL, 6.5f) in the field and a strong 8-3-2-1 record. Won her last start (Feb 9, 2025) and ran second in the Jimmy Durante (G3) at Del Mar. Bob Baffert’s 33% win rate in 2025 (144 starts) is elite, and Kazushi Kimura knows her well.
• Concerns: Long layoff (160 days) is a significant risk. Baffert’s 10% turf win rate (130 starts) is modest, and this is a class jump.
• Running Style: E/P – can lead or press, offering tactical versatility.
• Fit: Del Mar experience and high Performance Rating make her a top threat, but the layoff tempers expectations.

3. Miso Phansy (12/1)

• Composite Rating: 133.3 (7th)
• Strengths: Consistent on turf (6-2-4-0, $150,050), with a second in the Honeymoon (G3) last out. Trainer Leonard Powell is hot (2-2-0-0 last 14 days) and has a 21% win rate in 2025 (114 starts). A closer (S type), she could capitalize on a fast pace.
• Concerns: Performance Ratings (87 avg.) are modest, and a 62-day layoff may dull her edge. Lower Composite Rating suggests she’s outclassed.
• Running Style: S (sustained/closer) – rallies late.
• Fit: Needs a hot pace to hit the board but faces a tough task to win.

4. As Catch Can (10/1)

• Composite Rating: 132.2 (8th)
• Strengths: Versatile (9-2-3-1), with a turf win at 1m and a second in the SweetLifeL (6.5f). Jonathan Thomas’s 22% turf win rate is strong, and a sharp 4F workout (:47.0, Jul-12) indicates readiness.
• Concerns: No Del Mar starts, and Performance Ratings (87 avg.) are below the top tier. Hasn’t raced since May 18, 2025 (62 days).
• Running Style: P (presser) – tracks mid-pack and grinds late.
• Fit: Could sneak into exotics with a clean trip but needs improvement to win.

5. Thought Process (8/5)

• Composite Rating: 151.4 (1st)
• Strengths: Class of the field (6-4-0-1, $224,200), with the highest turf Performance Rating (92, 1m allowance). Won three straight turf races before a ninth in the BC Juvenile Fillies Turf (G1). Phil D’Amato’s 22% win rate in 2025 (281 starts) and 21% with last-out winners are positives. Proven at Del Mar (3-2-0-0) and the distance (3-3-0-0).
• Concerns: Class jump from allowance to G2, but her form suggests readiness.
• Running Style: E/P – can lead or sit just off the pace.
• Fit: The horse to beat, with superior speed, consistency, and course affinity.

6. Amorita (10/1)

• Composite Rating: 137.9 (5th)
• Strengths: Solid turf form (7-2-2-0, $113,660), including a Del Mar maiden win (1m) and a second in the Senorita (G3). Richard Mandella’s 20% graded stakes win rate (146 starts) and Juan Hernandez’s skill are assets.
• Concerns: 83-day layoff (since Apr 27, 2025) and Performance Ratings (88 avg.) slightly below top contenders.
• Running Style: E (early) – likely to set or press the pace.
• Fit: Could control the pace but needs a step forward to hold off closers.

7. Jungle Peace (8/1)

• Composite Rating: 136.1 (6th)
• Strengths: In-form with three straight turf wins in 2025 (6.5f-9f), including the Senorita (G3). Phil D’Amato’s 18% turf win rate (1658 starts) and a sharp 5F workout (:59.8, Jul-12) are encouraging. Third in the Honeymoon (G3) shows graded stakes ability.
• Concerns: No Del Mar starts, and a 62-day layoff could affect sharpness. Failed as favorite last out.
• Running Style: E – likely on or near the lead.
• Fit: A pace factor with exotics potential but needs to prove herself at Del Mar.

8. Firenze Flavor (12/1)

• Composite Rating: 129.9 (9th)
• Strengths: Won the Honeymoon (G3, 9f) last out, proving she can handle graded company. Three wins in 2025 and a closer (S type) could benefit from a fast pace.
• Concerns: Lowest Composite Rating and modest Performance Ratings (87 avg.). Only one Del Mar start (fifth, 1m) and a 62-day layoff.
• Running Style: S – deep closer needing a pace meltdown.
• Fit: Upset potential in exotics if the pace collapses.

9. Silent Law (10/1)

• Composite Rating: 138.0 (4th)
• Strengths: Strong dirt form (5-2-2-1, $151,460), with a second in the SA Oaks (G2). Bob Baffert’s 28% graded stakes win rate (354 starts) and Mirco Demuro’s skill are positives.
• Concerns: First turf start, with Baffert’s 10% win rate in first-time turf starts (39 starts). 105-day layoff and untested turf Performance Ratings (91 avg. on dirt).
• Running Style: E – likely forwardly placed but unproven on turf.
• Fit: High-risk, high-reward due to surface switch.

Race Dynamics and Pace Analysis

• Pace Scenario: Multiple early-speed types (Amorita, Jungle Peace, Silent Law, Casalu, Thought Process) suggest a moderate to fast pace. Amorita and Jungle Peace may duel for the lead, with Casalu and Thought Process tracking. Will Then and As Catch Can sit mid-pack, while Miso Phansy and Firenze Flavor close from behind.
• Pace Benchmarks: Early (87/89), Late (85/89). Expect a :23.0-:47.0 half-mile, favoring tactical speed or strong closers.
• Track Bias: Del Mar’s turf course is fair, but the rail (Will Then) wins at 21%. Closers need a clean trip to rally effectively.

Predictions

Based on Composite Ratings, Performance Ratings, trainer/jockey stats, and course fit:

1. Thought Process (5): Top Composite Rating (151.4), best turf Performance Rating (92), and Del Mar/distance prowess (3-2-0-0) make her the standout. D’Amato’s stats seal her as the favorite.
2. Casalu (2): High Composite Rating (145.6), a 90 turf Performance Rating, and Del Mar experience make her a strong contender despite the layoff.
3. Will Then (1): Consistent turf form and rail draw keep her in the mix, but she needs a peak effort.
4. Jungle Peace (7): Recent wins and D’Amato’s training give her exotics potential.

Exotics Contenders: Amorita (pace), Miso Phansy (closer), Firenze Flavor (closer). Silent Law is a wildcard.

Wagering Strategy

Focusing on value and covering top contenders across available bets:

• $2 WPS Parlay ($12):
  • Thought Process (5): $4 Win, $4 Place. Best chance to win based on form and speed.
  • Casalu (2): $2 Win, $2 Place. Value at 6/1 with upside.
• $1 Exacta Box ($6):
  • 5-2-1 (Thought Process, Casalu, Will Then). Covers top three contenders.
• $0.50 Trifecta ($12):
  • Key Thought Process (5): 5 / 2,1,6,7 / 2,1,6,7 = 16 x $0.50 = $8.
  • Key Casalu (2): 2 / 5,1,6,7 / 5,1,6,7 = 8 x $0.50 = $4.
• $1 Superfecta (10c min) ($9.60):
  • 5,2 / 5,2,1,6,7 / 5,2,1,6,7 / 5,2,1,6,7,3 = 96 x $0.10 = $9.60.
• $3 Late Pick Three ($24):
  • Leg 1 (San Clemente): 5,2,1.
  • Leg 2: 2-3 horses (hypothetical, top favorites).
  • Leg 3: 2-3 horses (hypothetical, top favorites).
  • Example: 5,2,1 / 1,2 / 1,2 = 12 x $3 = $36 (adjust to $24 by narrowing later legs).

Total Cost: $63.60 (adjust as needed).

Final Thoughts

Thought Process is the clear favorite with unmatched speed and Del Mar success. Casalu offers value at 6/1, while Will Then and Jungle Peace are logical exotics plays. Amorita, Miso Phansy, and Firenze Flavor could fill lower slots, with Silent Law as a risky turf debutant. Key Thought Process and Casalu in bets for the best balance of probability and value.

Disclaimer: Gambling involves risk. Bet responsibly. Picks are based on free past performances handicapping, historical data, and our proprietary algorithm. TheFreePPs.com provides links to publicly available racing data and is not affiliated with linked sites. All wagering should be done responsibly. TheFreePPs.com is not responsible for losses incurred using this information.

Related Posts

• 
  Saratoga: 2025 Jockey Club Gold Cup Analysis, Picks, PPs
• 
  2025 Pacific Classic Handicap Analysis
• 
  Remembering Ron Turcotte: Big Red’s Rider