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Home / Del Mar / Hollywood Derby 2016: Odds, Analysis, Insight

Hollywood Derby 2016: Odds, Analysis, Insight

Hollywood Derby 2016 – Del Mar

The Hollywood Derby is the DRF.com race of the day from Del Mar.

Note: Check the weather forecast for Del Mar on Saturday.

It’s a G1 race for three-year olds, with 12 runners set to go 1 1/8 miles on the turf for a purse of $300,000.

Chad Brown has sent three horses to Del Mar for the race in what I’m going to consider a test of his top three-year old turf runners for a possible performance in the 2017 Breeders’ Cup which will be held at Del Mar for the first time in Breeders’ Cup history.

Here’s a look at the horses from the rail out:

  1. Beach Patrol – Stablemate Camelot Kitten seems to have his number as he’s beaten him twice in graded turf tries, albeit by a head each time, but it’s the type of thing that can’t be overlooked. To his credit, he broke his maiden on the Santa Anita turf in March and came right back three weeks later to win going this distance on the lead every jump in a OC80K for NW1X at SA before heading east to face ‘Camelot’. Odds: 9 to 2
  2. Camelot Kitten – Broke maiden on the inner at Belmont as a two-year old in September ’15. Came back two races later to beat two horses in the ’15 BC Juvenile Turf at Keeneland before going on the shelf for 6 months. Took the G2 American Turf at Churchill by a head over stablemate to his inside. Won three more this year all on the inner at Saratoga and Belmont. Odds: 7 to 2
  3. Frank Conversation – LOVE to see subtle changes on the chart that proves positive. Grant it, he’s won two of four lifetime over the synthetic at Golden Gate, but he’s won the other two over the Santa Anita lawn including the G2 Twilight Derby at $37 to $1 when O’Neill removed the hood. Lone race here was a 3rd place finish going 1 mile after breaking his maiden. 8 to 1 morning line makes this son of Quality Road by an Unusual Heat mare a good bet. Odds: 8 to 1
  4. Diplodocus – One of five who exits the Twilight Derby, including the aforementioned ‘Frank’, a race run on Breeders’ Cup Friday a few weeks ago. Finished 5th beaten a length in that one, but the point is that the race should prove to be key with 5 runners coming in for this one. But with one lifetime win – a maiden special at the distance at Santa Anita – this guy will have a tall task turning the tables on the others. Odds: 20 to 1
  5. Free Rose – Second in the Twilight Derby off back-to-back wins in the G3 La Jolla and G2 Del Mar Derby respectively. Horse was running for $20K claimers at Keeneland in early April before switching to the turf there two weeks later to crush ’em in a starter allowance at $55 to the American dollar. His two wins over the track, he’s 3 points shorter in the morning line than the horse that beat him last time. Odds: 5 to 1
  6. Isotherm – Comes in from New York off an 8th place finish as the favorite going 1 mile on a soft Belmont surface in the $100K English Channel. Toss that one and he belongs here but his two lifetime wins came on the Belmont inner going 1/16 shorter. And he’s been beaten by the ‘Kitten’ twice before. Gets Johnny V. but trainer Weaver is just 2% in graded stakes races. Odds: 12 to 1
  7. Blackjackcat – Equipment change as blinkers come off for the first time. Third behind ‘Frank’ and ‘Rose’ in the Twilight last time with Smith who’s won twice on this son of Tale of the Cat for 26% trainer Glatt. Runner is 0 for 2 at the distance including a sixth place finish as the favorite in the Del Mar Derby three back. Odds: 8 to 1
  8. Hayabusa One – Extremely well bred runner from France won his first race there over soft ground before coming to the states to win an AlwN1X over a fast Keeneland turf course going 1 3/16 miles with Geroux, who opts for Beach Patrol for Brown. Gets Espinoza who is 32% at the meet on a horse who got Lasix for the first time and won easily. Hasn’t been out in almost 8 weeks but Motion is sensational with this type of runner and is 40% to date at Del Mar in ’16, as he tests this guys affinity for Del Mar in preparation for the Breeders’ Cup in November ’17. Odds: 6 to 1
  9. Revved Up – Gets new rider in young rider Van Dyke who is making a name for himself on the So Cal circuit having won with 21% of his runners at the meet. 3 year-old has won two so far, both on the inner in New York going longer. Was 5th in the Commonwealth at Laurel, two lengths behind Isotherm. Sitting on back-to-back bullets at Belmont for trainer who is 18% with graded stakes runners this year. Odds: 20 to 1
  10. Defiantly – Came West in September to get his first win here going 1 1/16 miles in a maiden special after several in the money finishes on the East coast including a 3rd behind Revved Up. Two back was sent out for the first time by Dollase to finish 6th off maiden score, then took a restricted race here at 1 mile with Stevens last time out. Odds: 30 to 1
  11. Annals of Time – One of three for Brown. Took maiden voyage by a neck at Aqueduct going 1 mile a year ago. Came back last September to narrowly lose as the favorite at Saratoga going 1 1/16 miles. Completed the trifecta for Brown in the G3 Hill Prince last time out over the inner at Belmont. Improving numbers and Johnny V. stays with him. Room for improvement. Odds: 6 to 1
  12. Path of David – Broke maiden here going 1 mile with Talamo who’s back aboard after three unsuccessful runs with other riders. Was 7th in the Twilight beaten just two lengths for all the marbles. Trainer is 1 for 16 at the meet and 0 for 17 in graded stakes company. Odds: 30 to 1

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