Mother Goose Preview: Lewis Bay Returns

By WIZCAPPER
Updated: July 1, 2016

Lewis Bay returns in the G1 $300,000 Mother Goose for 3 year old fillies going 1 1/16 miles at Belmont on Saturday when she will face off against Rachel’s Valentina in their first race back since last competing in the Kentucky Oaks on May 6, 2016.

In the Oaks, Rachel’s Valentina was a puzzling 6th as the 5-2 favorite after racing 4 wide in second behind her long-shot stablemate Terra Promessa. And eventually “wilted” according to DRF’s past performance running lines.

I don’t know that I’ve seen the term “wilted” used very much to describe a horse’s performance in the past, and the term is not even listed in the glossary of horse racing terms at DRF.com, but I can tell you that in my mind it’s what I imagine a flower would do when exposed to high temperatures. Given that the high temperature in Louisville on May 6, 2016, according to AccuWeather.com, was a mild 72° I would say that heat probably wasn’t the cause of her poor performance but there’s no denying that she staggered home having no energy for the finish in a race run in split times of 24:55 24:73 24:50 and 13:43 for the final quarter of the 1 1/8 mile distance.

Rachel’s Valentina, the daughter of Bernardini — winner of the 2006 Preakness, and the stellar performer Rachel Alexandra who won the Kentucky Oaks in 2009, will open as the slight favorite at 9-5 over six other rivals including the aforementioned Lewis Bay.

Lewis Bay is also the daughter of Bernardini out of the mare Summer Raven who was sired by 1990 Preakness winner Summer Squall. Incidentally, Summer Squall had to skip the Belmont that year because Lasix was still banned in New York at that time and he was a known bleeder that went on to become the sire of classic winner Charismatic who won the ’99 Kentucky Derby, as well as the damsire of Summer Bird, winner of the 2009 Belmont Stakes.

Lewis Bay will open as the 2-1 second choice in the Mother Goose but considering her pedigree, the fact that she broke her maiden going 7/8’s at Belmont and that she finished third 3 1/4 lengths ahead of the favorite in the Kentucky Oaks makes her hard not to like in here.

Todd Pletcher will send out two stablemates of Rachel’s Valentina including Mo d’Amour who was 5th in the Oaks two back, and the probable pacesetter Off the Tracks who was second last time out in the G1 Acorn going 1 mile at Belmont.

One other runner worth mentioning is Lightstream who is 3 for 3 lifetime for trainer Brian Lynch who is training at a 31% win rate at the meet. Lightstream gets a new rider in Joel Rosario and together the jockey trainer combo has an ROI of $3.25 when teaming up at Belmont over the past two years.

Equibase Results Chart for the 2016 Kentucky Oaks

Watch the replay of the 2016 Kentucky Oaks

DRF free past performances for the Mother Goose Stakes at Belmont

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