Derby Trail: Tampa Bay Derby Offers Value

The fields for the 2018 Tampa Bay Derby, San Felipe Stakes and the Gotham at Aqueduct are set and ready to race for a combined 255 points towards their shot at the biggest prize in American thoroughbred horse racing, the Kentucky Derby on May 5, 2018 at Churchill Downs in Louisville, Kentucky.

2018 Tampa Bay Derby Odds, Analysis, Free PPs

PP	Horse	Trainer	Odds	Wiz Capper Comments
1	Arazi Like Move	A. Gonzalez	50-1	Another one of Loooch Racing Stables ‘pipe dreams’ this runner broke his maiden at first asking in a $40K maiden claimer last August at Delaware going 6f. Subsequent races have been competitive as he climbed the ladder into a couple of non-graded overnights here in previous two. Adds blinkers and will need every angle possible to make a case for him.
2	Tiz Mischief	D. Romans	8-1	Was dusted for second by stablemate Free Drop Billy who was cross-entered in here by Romans who’s ‘strategy play‘ paid off last weekend. And may work again this weekend for this runner who won’t have to face Billy in here as that one will go in the Gotham. Beat the FOY winner two back and will be making his second start of the year with new rider Rosario. This will be a make or break moment for this guy’s chance at the Derby. Not sure he can come from way back at Tampa but he’ll have plenty of speed to run at and could spring the upset with Rosario.
3	Vino Rosso	T. Pletcher	4-1	Made first two look easy before testing graded company LTO in the Sam Davis behind Flameaway and Catholic Boy. Adds blinkers and expect continued improvement for son of Curlin. Should be in it from the break and only has to make up 3/4’s of a length from last. Capable.
4	Grandpa Knows Best	K. McPeek	30 – 1	Leparoux takes the call for winner of last two who began career sprinting but has improved when going longer. Nice win LTO going two turns for the first time, and following his maiden score. Taking a big step up in first race of the year and could make a surprise appearance in the exotics given Leparoux’s interest.
5	Flameaway	J. Lezcano	3-1	Five time winner for Casse, beginning on all-weather in Canada sprinting before taking an off-the-turf next out at the Spa in the mud. Was well-beaten buy early Derby contender The Tabulator in the Iroquois at CD on dirt. Took the G3 Bourbon at Keeneland in the slop. Do you see a pattern? Tried BCJvTurf and tired after contesting pace but returned to win first race of the year on turf at GP two back before taking the Sam Davis here on the lead every step with new rider Lezcano who replaced Leparoux. Faces twice as many runners this time than last but the win over the track makes him the legit favorite.
6	Enticed (SCRATCHED)	A. Gallardo	6-1	Disappointed LTO in the Holy Bull as favorite in first start of the year after winning the KYJC over Tiz Mischief and FOY winner Promises Fulfilled. Cross-entered in the Gotham and may find he ends up there when scratches come out. Could have simply needed his last one for trainer who is 0 for 2 at Tampa but has 22% winners at the Big A where he’ll have Alvarado back aboard. Doubt he goes here but if he does his chance to pick up points diminishes.
7	Free Drop Billy (SCRATCHED)	D. Romans	7-2	Will likely scratch in favor of the Gotham at Aqueduct. That race is at 1 mile where he’ll look to improve off a second place finish last time out in the Holy Bull when 9 clear of Enticed. Expect him to take back in the Gotham and make one run at the leaders with Big A’s leading rider Dylan Davis.
8	World of Trouble	I. Ortiz, Jr.	5 – 1	Won two races by better than 10 lengths each. Expect him to be the pacesetter with Flameaway stalking him in second. Gets his 4th different rider in as many tries for Servis who has a win and a second from two starts at the meet. Expect big effort from this guy over a track he likes for good connections. But he’s playing for real here. Caution.
9	Untamed Domain	JL Ortiz	6 – 1	Son of 2011 Derby winner Animal Kingdom who ran mostly on synthetic or turf but was able to upset the Derby over a mediocre field that year. Like his sire he’s bred top and bottom for turf and will be making his first start on dirt for 18% trainer who also campaigned the Animal. Love the fact that he’s adding distance and if he takes to the dirt, even for a day, he could surprise in here.
10	Quip	R. Brisset	20 – 1	Won first two with little fanfare before trying the G2 KYJC last time out. Attention at the windows when 5 to 1 but steadied out of contention from the 11 hole when only 4 lengths off the lead. High percentage connections will have an easier time getting into the clear but layoff and graded company record of trainer offers little optimism for the win. Still, could play a part in the exotics at a price.
11	Caloric	M. Winters	50 – 1	Claimed from Pletcher out of a winning effort two back for $25K. Returned for $16K next time out and was claimed again after taking that one. You can’t win if you don’t try but seriously, if Pletcher and Servis say there’s something wrong with this horse, then why test him against some of the better runners in his class where there’s a chance he doesn’t finish the race. Ridiculous!