2026 Risen Star Stakes Analysis: Paladin Leads the Field in Overall Performance Index (OPI)
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Quick Take: 2026 RISEN STAR STAKES
- When: Saturday, Feb 14 | Post Time: Approx. 6:12 PM CT
- Where: Fair Grounds (New Orleans, LA)
- OPI Top Pick: #4 Paladin (141.5) — Dominant across all three pillars. The Remsen winner makes his 3-year-old debut for Chad Brown.
- Best Competitive Grade: #4 Paladin (118.2) — Proven against the toughest company.
- Pedigree Power: #2 Golden Tempo (121) — The OPI Pedigree Index suggests he’s the biggest threat at 9 furlongs. He’s 2-for-2 at Fair Grounds and coming off a gutsy Lecomte win.
- Form Watch: #7 Courting (83) — Posted a career-high Recent Speed Figure last out; live longshot.
The Road to the Roses: 2026 Risen Star Stakes Analysis
The journey to the first Saturday in May hits a critical gear this weekend at Fair Grounds, featuring a clash between established excellence and rising local stars. At the center of the conversation is our Heavyweight, #4 Paladin. Despite drawing a challenging wide post, he remains the undisputed class of the field. His Overall Performance Index (OPI) of 141.5 is the highest mark we have recorded in the prep season thus far, anchored by a blistering Recent Speed Figure of 92 from his Remsen victory. The only variable for bettors to weigh is his 2026 debut status, but on raw data alone, he is the benchmark for this generation.
Looking to disrupt the favorite’s return is the “Live Longshot”, #7 Courting. While this Pletcher shipper’s raw speed figures appear a step behind on paper, his Competitive Grade of 131.0 puts him right there—and with the addition of blinkers expect him to make up several lengths on the favorite from his last out Remsen effot. Expect a heated pace to develop up front, and Courting possesses the tactical versatility to reel in the leaders when it matters most.
Finally, no analysis of the New Orleans circuit is complete without The Local Hope, #6 Golden Tempo. Boasting a perfect record at Fair Grounds, he enjoys a distinct “home-field advantage.” While his Overall Performance Index of 132.0 sits nearly ten points behind the favorite, Golden Tempo is a dedicated closer whose OPI Pedigree Index suggests he will relish every inch of the long Fair Grounds homestretch. As the field turns for home, expect him to be the one launching a late, heart-pounding charge.
The 2026 Risen Star Stakes this Saturday at Fair Grounds is the first major prep race on the Kentucky Derby trail, offering 50 points to the winner.
2026 Risen Star Stakes: Field Analysis & Data
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Click here to access racing data for the Risen Star Stakes. See the free past performances for Todd Pletcher or Brad Cox.
