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Home / Arkansas Derby / Arkansas Derby offers Classic Empire chance to prove he belongs

Arkansas Derby offers Classic Empire chance to prove he belongs

The G1 $1 million Arkansas Derby is one of two final prep races for Kentucky Derby hopefuls and their owners looking for a spot in the starting gate on May 6.

It’s interesting that the connections of Breeders’ Cup Juvenile winner Classic Empire passed up several opportunities to allow him to make amends for his head-scratching 3rd place finish in the G2 Holy Bull back in February. But here we are with just over 20 days until the Run for the Roses. And he’ll be sent out as the favorite for only his second race of 2017.

If you’ve been following along in the comments section, I’ve said that I don’t see the ’16 BC Juvenile as being a ‘key’ race. Of the top three finishers from the Juvenile, Classic Empire returned in defeat as odds on favorite. Runner-up Not This Time is off the Derby trail. And Practical Joke who was third that day, returned as the runner-up in his two Derby preps, the FOY and the Bluegrass.

Will Classic Empire rebound as the winner of the Arkansas Derby? I don’t think so.

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But to be clear, he won’t have to improve too much off his last performance to do so.

The field for the 2017 meet’s feature at Oaklawn includes 6 of the 11 runners from the G2 Rebel. Todd Pletcher returns with the undefeated Rebel winner Malagacy who has drawn the 12 hole. But with the added 1/16 of a mile and his tactical speed he should have no problem clearing the field after the break. And I suspect Castellano will have him sitting just in behind Rockin Rudy and Class Empire down the backside.

The remaining five from the Rebel are a mixed bag of less than impressive runners, most of which haven’t managed to win more than one race, save Lookin At Lee who has two wins. But he currently sits 28th on the leaderboard with 12 points and cannot finish any worse than second if he wants to run in the Derby. And perhaps the one with the most upside from the Rebel is Untrapped who is barely hanging on to the 20th spot on the leaderboard with 34 points for trainer Steve Asmussen. He’ll get a new rider in Hall of Fame jockey Mike Smith and will wear blinkers for the first time.

Getting back to Classic Empire. Based on the performances of Gunnevera and Irish War Cry in their follow up races after the Holy Bull, I suspect he’ll be able to manage at least a 4th place finish at Hot Springs tomorrow.

And he better. Because right now he’s on the outside looking in with 32 points – two behind Untrapped – and he’ll need at least the 10 points for hitting the board if he wants a guaranteed spot a few Saturday’s from now.

Arkansas Derby past performances

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