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Cigar Mile 2016: Odds, Analysis, Insight

Cigar Mile 2016

The 2016 running of the G1 $500,000 Cigar Mile at Aqueduct is the feature race of the day.

Here’s a look at each of the runners with insight and analysis starting from the rail out:

  1. Anchor Dawn – 0 for 3 in G1 company but winner of the G2 Kelso last time out with Castellano who opts for Connect in here. Morning line favorite at 2 to 1 but don’t like that he’s 0 for 2 at the Big A. Very impressive 108 Beyer in the Kelso and the fact that the runner-up came back to win the Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile makes him the legit favorite, but the fact that Castellano goes elsewhere and his Big A goose egg makes him beatable.
  2. Economic Model – Exits the G3 Bold Ruler won by Stallwalkin’ Dude who returned in the Fall Highweight as the heavy favorite but was ‘run over’ by 32 to 1 shot Heaven’s Runway. Competive 3 year old who’s NW4L eligible will be making his first start at Aqueduct for 22% trainer Brown who also sends out Connect. The two-back winner returned to take the Breeders’ Cup Sprint. Rosario is 0 for 3 at the meet for Brown.
  3. Realm – Won an allowance N1X here by 5 going this distance in his last start but this is the big leagues. Trainer is 27% at the meet but 0 for 23 in graded stakes this year. He’s eligible for NW3L and might get a big heart if loose on the lead and may be the horse for the course in here but his chances are probably more outside the ‘realm’ of possibility than in.
  4. Mylute – 6 year old has plenty of back class including a fifth place finish in the ’13 Kentucky Derby and was third in the Preakness. Blinkers went back on for his 4th place finish in the Bold Ruler last time out. All 5 lifetime wins were when he dropped in to lesser company and he’ll be farther back this time around than when he rallied when closer against like kind.
  5. Ocean Knight – Third in the Kelso. Gets new rider in Johnny V. and will need to improve several lengths to catch Anchor Down. Only start here was a third place finish as the favorite going 1 1/8 miles over the slop in a G3 a year ago. Still NW4L.
  6. Tale of S’avall – 3 year old son of ’08 Cigar Mile winner Tale of Ekati. Broke maiden at Saratoga last year then faced graded company in defeat so far in ’16 campaign. Won last out when dropped in to easier allowance company at Belmont. Was 6th in the G1 Wood in April over a muddy track. Same trainer as Realm…same graded stakes record.
  7. Connect – Won the Pennsylvania Derby last time out beating Breeders’ Cup Mile runner up Gun Runner who returned to win the Clark vs. older at Churchill yesterday. Castellano aboard for two of his four wins and opts for this one over Anchor Down, so must trust his judgement. Started career here a year ago with a 3rd in a maiden special followed by maiden win over the mud at Belmont going 6 1/2. Will have to rally from off the pace at 5 to 2.
  8. War Story – Connections took a shot at Santa Anita earlier this month in the Breeders’ Cup Classic at $104.00 to $1.00 and beat one horse. Last win was a NW3L allowance over the slop at Thistle. Need we say more?
  9. Threefiveindia – Ortiz, Jr. aboard for one of three wins. Broke maiden at Ellis sprinting. Has a third in a G3 at Parx and second in the Bold Ruler last time out for Brown. Will probably find him closer to the pace at this distance and will have to reach deep for the added furlong.
  10. Divining Rod – Change of equipment today as blinkers go on for the first time. Won the G3 Lexington last year before finishing 3rd to Pharoah in the Preakness. Had back to back wins at Parx to open ’16 campaign and was second in Fayette last time out. He’ll be stalking widest of all but can’t blame connections for trying him here.

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