Pennsylvania Derby 2016: Nyquist, Exaggerator Odds and Analysis

Nyquist returns to face off against Exaggerator in Pennsylvania Derby 2016

After two unflattering performances over the slop in his last two starts, Nyquist will have the chance to display the dominance he held over Exaggerator throughout the 2016 Triple Crown season over what is expected to be a fast track in the 2016 Pennsylvania Derby.

Pennsylvania Derby 2016: Odds and Analysis

Awesome Slew – 10-1 P. Lopez – Added blinkers two back in the Haskell over the slop. Toss that one. Came back next out to win the G3 Smarty Jones at Penn beating 13 others. Adds distance for his biggest challenge yet.
Exaggerator – 9-2 K. Desormeaux – He was eased in the Travers as the favorite in last outing. He’s done everything right — when it rains, but there’s none in the forecast for this race. Certainly capable on dry surface. This will be the 15th start of his career — unbelievably 5 more than his nemesis Nyquist who has had his number in the past but a nice price if you like the match up.
Summer Revolution 8-1 M. Smith – Son of three time G1 winner Summer Bird who took the ’09 Belmont, Travers and Jockey Club Gold Cup. Won first two outings and then third in the G1 Bishop in only other try. Stretches out for the first time and has three bullets a week apart. Look for him to be in contention from the start as company for Cupid.
Connect 12-1 J. Castellano – Best race was the $100K Curlin in July at Saratoga. Sixth in the Travers when tested vs. G1 winners.
Cupid 5-1 R. Bejarano – Three time G2 winner including his last two in Indiana and West Virginia Derby. Taken along slowly by HOF Baffert and will be the pacesetter from the start. Faces his toughest competitors to date and looks to be ready for the challenge.
Wild About Deb 20-1 T Pereira – Only 1 win from 5 starts and that was over the slop at Santa Anita in April. Second in Smarty Jones in last but hasn’t faced much of anything otherwise.
Gun Runner 6-1 F. Geroux – Was third in the Travers beaten 15 lengths but was 4 in front of the rest of the field giving him the highest Beyer 102 in this field. He’s just a cut below the rest of the best of the ’16 3 YO’s.
My Man Sam 20-1 J. Leparoux – Another NW2 lifetime was 8th in Travers. Checked sharply in Kentucky Derby if you’re looking for anything that might make a difference vs. top company.
Nyquist 5-2 M. Gutierrez – Somebody has to be favorite, right? Only two losses were in the mud in last two outings so toss those and he could still be the undefeated champ of the class of ’16 3 YO’s. Has been working hard for this return since the Haskell and a chance to affirm his dominance over Exaggerator.
Sunny Ridge 12-1 J. Bravo – Gets another new rider. Has been competitive in all but one of his 8 starts vs. graded company. High percentage jockey/trainer at the meet, but low percentage graded tries for trainer but if you toss the mud losses and the two over the inner at Aqueduct…nah, never mind.
Discreet Lover 30-1 J Flores – Hometown runner has been campaigned hard since July ’15 and has only two wins to show for it. Low percentages all the way around.
Hit It Once More 20-1 K Carmouche – NY bred won last two on the lead under Carmouche vs. state breds and will be hard sent from the 12 hole but can’t see him competing with the likes of Cupid for very long.