Wood Memorial 2025: Expert Picks and Detailed Betting Analysis for Kentucky Derby Prep

Let’s dive into handicapping the Wood Memorial Stakes (G2) at Aqueduct on April 5, 2025, using the Brisnet Past Performances (PPs) provided. This is a 1 1/8-mile dirt race for 3-year-olds with a purse of $750,000, and it’s a key Kentucky Derby prep race. We’ll analyze the field, highlight key contenders, provide picks, and suggest betting strategies based on the data.

NOTE: The analysis and predictions are for informational purposes only and there is no guarantee, implied or otherwise, for success using this prediction. Do your own research and wager responsibly. TheFreePPs.com nor any of its principals are responsible for any losses that may be incurred using this information.

Race Overview

• Distance: 1 1/8 miles (9 furlongs)
• Track: Aqueduct, dirt
• Purse: $750,000
• Grade: II
• Post Time: 3:10 PM (assuming Eastern Time based on Aqueduct)
• E1 E2/Late Speed Pars: 91 98 / 90 98 (indicating a balanced pace scenario with a slight edge to horses with late speed)
• Wagering Options: $1 Exacta, $0.50 Trifecta, $0.10 Superfecta, $1 Daily Double (12 & 13)

The field consists of 12 horses, and I’ll evaluate them based on speed figures, running styles, class, form, workouts, trainer/jockey stats, and track experience. Let’s break it down.

Detailed Analysis of Key Contenders

1. Rodriguez (PP 1, Trainer: Bob Baffert, Jockey: Mike Smith)

• Prime Power: 139.0 (3rd)
• Record: 4 starts, 1-2-1, $122,800 (2025: 3 starts, 1-1-1, $112,000)
• Best Speed: 97 (Maiden win, 1m, SA, Jan 4)
• Running Style: Early speed (E 7)
• Strengths:
• Trained by Bob Baffert, a master with Derby preps (though 2024-2025 ROI is -0.62).
• Consistent in the money (75% ITM lifetime).
• Sharp 5F workout (:59.4, Mar 29 at SA) suggests peak form.
• Maiden win at 1 mile showed strong early pace (E1/E2: 92 99) and a widening margin.
• Concerns:
• Faded to 3rd in both graded stakes (San Felipe G2, Robert B. Lewis G3), suggesting potential distance limitations.
• No Aqueduct experience; shipping cross-country could be a factor.
• Assessment: Rodriguez has the talent and early speed to contend, but his late fade in longer races (1 1/16m) raises doubts about 9 furlongs against tougher competition.

2. Captain Cook (PP 2, Trainer: Richard Dutrow Jr., Jockey: Manuel Franco)

• Prime Power: 142.0 (1st)
• Record: 3 starts, 2-0-0, $188,256 (2025: 1-0-0, $137,500)
• Best Speed: 100 (Withers, 1 1/8m, AQU, Feb 1)
• Running Style: E/P 6 (versatile early/presser)
• Strengths:
• Highest Prime Power in the field.
• Undefeated at Aqueduct (2-0, including the 9f Withers with a 100 speed figure).
• Hot trainer (32% win rate, 3-0-1 in last 14 days) and solid jockey (Franco, 23% wins).
• Won last out at this distance, showing stamina and late kick (E2/LP: 99/96).
• Concerns:
• 60+ day layoff since Feb 1; only one start in 2025.
• Moving up in class from the Withers (listed stakes) to a G2.
• Assessment: Captain Cook looks like the horse to beat with proven Aqueduct success and a strong speed figure at the distance. The layoff is a minor concern, but Dutrow’s stats suggest he’ll be ready.

5. Sand Devil (PP 5, Trainer: Linda Rice, Jockey: Jose Lezcano)

• Prime Power: 141.7 (2nd)
• Record: 4 starts, 3-1-0, $211,800 (2025: 2-1-0, $170,550)
• Best Speed: 97 (Gotham G3, 1m, AQU, Mar 1; Damon Runyon, 7f, AQU, Feb 8)
• Running Style: Early (E 8)
• Strengths:
• Perfect at Aqueduct (3-1-0 in 4 starts), including a G3 placing (2nd, Gotham).
• High % trainer (23%) and jockey (19%), with Lezcano hot recently (6-6-2 in 7 days).
• Consistent speed figures (95-97 range) and early pace (E1/E2: 95 101 in Gotham).
• Concerns:
• Failed as favorite in the Gotham (1.45-1), finishing 2nd.
• Poor trainer record in graded stakes (6% wins in 47 starts).
• Assessment: Sand Devil’s Aqueduct prowess and early speed make him a major player. He could wire the field if he shakes off the Gotham disappointment.

6. Hill Road (PP 6, Trainer: Chad Brown, Jockey: Joel Rosario)

• Prime Power: 139.0 (4th)
• Record: 4 starts, 1-0-2, $226,606 (2025: 0-0-1, $35,000)
• Best Speed: 101 (BC Juvenile G1, 1 1/16m, DMR, Nov 1, 2024)
• Running Style: Sustained (S 0)
• Strengths:
• Highest dirt speed figure in the field (101 in BC Juvenile).
• Chad Brown (22% wins) and Joel Rosario (28% wins) are a potent combo.
• Eligible to improve 2nd off the layoff (Brown: 25% in this spot).
• Sharp 4F workout (:48.4, Mar 29 at Payson).
• Concerns:
• Only 87 in last out (3rd, Tampa Bay Derby G3), a significant drop.
• No Aqueduct experience; shipping from Florida.
• Assessment: Hill Road’s class (BC Juvenile 3rd) is undeniable, but his recent form and lack of track experience temper enthusiasm. A rebound is possible.

7. Grande (PP 7, Trainer: Todd Pletcher, Jockey: Dylan Davis)

• Prime Power: 133.5 (6th)
• Record: 2 starts, 2-0-0, $88,200 (2025: 2-0-0)
• Best Speed: 88 (Maiden, 1m, GP, Jan 11)
• Running Style: Early (E 6)
• Strengths:
• Undefeated in two starts, including a 9f win last out (OC75k).
• Todd Pletcher’s 18% win rate and success with shippers (21%).
• Early speed suits a potential front-running trip.
• Concerns:
• Speed figures (88, 87) are modest compared to top contenders.
• Steps up significantly in class; no graded stakes experience.
• Assessment: Grande’s perfect record is intriguing, but his speed figures suggest he’ll need a big step forward to compete here.

8. Passion Rules (PP 8, Trainer: Brad Cox, Jockey: Kendrick Carmouche)

• Prime Power: 129.7 (9th)
• Record: 3 starts, 3-0-0, $114,600 (2025: 3-0-0)
• Best Speed: 85 (OC200k, 1 1/16m, OP, Mar 14)
• Running Style: E/P 4
• Strengths:
• Undefeated in three starts, showing versatility (rallied from off the pace last out).
• Brad Cox (27% wins) and Kendrick Carmouche (19%) are strong.
• Sharp 5F workout (:59.2, Mar 29 at Churchill Downs).
• Concerns:
• Speed figures (85, 82, 83) are well below par for this race.
• Class jump from OC200k to G2; no Aqueduct experience.
• Assessment: Passion Rules is improving, but his speed figures indicate he’s a cut below the top tier unless he takes a major leap.

12. Omaha Omaha (PP 12, Trainer: Michael Gorham, Jockey: Raul Mena)

• Prime Power: 137.3 (5th)
• Record: 7 starts, 2-1-3, $209,800 (2025: 0-1-2, $142,500)
• Best Speed: 95 (VA Derby, 1 1/8m, CNL, Mar 15)
• Running Style: Sustained (S 0)
• Strengths:
• Competitive in stakes (3rd VA Derby, 3rd Withers, 2nd Jerome).
• Aqueduct experience (2 starts, 90-95 speed figures).
• Late-closing style could benefit if pace is hot (LP: 93-99 in recent races).
• Concerns:
• No wins in 2025 (0-1-2); hasn’t threatened top foes recently.
• Trainer’s 12% win rate in routes is a red flag.
• Assessment: Omaha Omaha is consistent and track-tested, but he may lack the punch to win against this group.

Pace Scenario

• Early Speed (E): Rodriguez (E 7), Sand Devil (E 8), Grande (E 6), Bear Claw Necklace (E 8).
• E/P (Early/Presser): Captain Cook (E/P 6), My Mitole (E/P 6), Passion Rules (E/P 4).
• Presser (P): McAfee (P 2), Statesman (P 4).
• Sustained (S): Hill Road (S 0), Omaha Omaha (S 0).

The presence of multiple E and E/P types (Rodriguez, Sand Devil, Grande) suggests a contested pace. Sand Devil’s front-running style at Aqueduct gives him an edge if he clears early, but Rodriguez could press him. Late runners like Hill Road and Omaha Omaha could capitalize if the leaders tire.

Top Picks

1. Captain Cook (2): Best speed at the distance (100), Aqueduct success, and a hot trainer make him the top choice. The layoff is a slight concern, but his Withers win shows he handles 9 furlongs well.
2. Sand Devil (5): Aqueduct specialist with early speed and a near-miss in the Gotham. He’s a threat to wire the field.
3. Hill Road (6): Classiest horse in the field (101 BC Juvenile) with a top trainer/jockey duo. Needs to rebound from his last start.
4. Rodriguez (1): Baffert’s colt has talent and early speed but must prove he can sustain it at 9 furlongs.

Longshot to Watch: Omaha Omaha (12) – Consistent closer with Aqueduct experience could sneak into the exotics at a price.

Betting Strategies

Given the wagering options and field size, here’s how I’d approach it:

Win Bet

• Captain Cook (2): $10 Win. Strongest overall profile; likely to be a fair price given the layoff.

Exacta

• Box: 2-5 ($1 Exacta, $2 total). Captain Cook and Sand Devil are the most likely to hit the board.
• Key: 2 / 1-5-6 ($1 Exacta, $3 total). Captain Cook on top with Rodriguez, Sand Devil, and Hill Road underneath.

Trifecta

• $0.50 Trifecta Key: 2 / 1-5-6 / 1-5-6-12 ($9 total). Captain Cook to win, with Rodriguez, Sand Devil, Hill Road, and Omaha Omaha in the next two spots.
• $0.50 Trifecta Part-Wheel: 2-5 / 2-5 / 1-6-12 ($6 total). Focus on the top two with value underneath.

Superfecta

• $0.10 Superfecta Key: 2 / 5-6-1 / 5-6-1-12 / 5-6-1-12-7 ($3.60 total). Captain Cook to win, mixing Sand Devil, Hill Road, Rodriguez, Omaha Omaha, and Grande for depth.

Daily Double

• $1 Double: 12 (Wood Memorial) with 13 (next race). Assuming Captain Cook (2) wins: 2 / ALL ($12 total if 12 horses in Race 13). Adjust based on next race’s field.

Final Thoughts

Captain Cook stands out with his Aqueduct win at the distance and top Prime Power, but Sand Devil’s track record and Hill Road’s upside make this a competitive race. Rodriguez could surprise if Baffert has him peaking. I’ll refine this further with the DRF, TimeformUS, and Equibase PPs once you provide them. What are your thoughts so far?

Disclaimer: This is not financial advise or a guarantee of success; please do your own research and due diligence before betting. And remember, always wager responsibly.

Good catch, and thanks for pointing that out! I didn’t intentionally leave out any horses—it seems I got carried away focusing on the top Prime Power contenders and a few others that jumped out initially, and I didn’t fully cover the entire 12-horse field in my detailed analysis. My apologies for the oversight. Let’s correct that now by briefly analyzing the horses I missed (3, 4, 9, 10, 11) and then updating my overall picks and betting strategies to reflect the full field. I’ll keep it concise for these additions since we’ve already set the stage.

Analysis of Missed Horses

3. Tiger Twenty Four (PP 3, Trainer: William Mott, Jockey: Javier Castellano)

• Prime Power: 126.9 (10th)
• Record: 3 starts, 1-1-0, $57,400 (2025: 1-1-0)
• Best Speed: 88 (Maiden win, 1m, GP, Mar 15)
• Running Style: E/P 3
• Key Points:
• Won last out at Gulfstream (1m, 88 speed), showing some promise.
• Mott (15% wins) and Castellano (8% recently) are solid, with Mott hot (2-0-0 in 14 days).
• Sharp 4F workout (:47, Mar 27 at GP).
• Low speed figures (88, 83, 73) and no stakes experience; steps up in class.
• Assessment: Likely overmatched here; needs a big jump to contend.

4. My Mitole (PP 4, Trainer: Carlos Martin, Jockey: Luis Rivera Jr.)

• Prime Power: 131.9 (7th)
• Record: 5 starts, 2-1-0, $108,350 (2025: 1-0-0, $48,250)
• Best Speed: 93 (Gotham G3, 1m, AQU, Mar 1)
• Running Style: E/P 6
• Key Points:
• Aqueduct regular (5 starts, 2-1-0), including a 4th in the Gotham (93 speed).
• Adds blinkers today (trainer 15% with first-time blinkers).
• Speed figures trending up (80-86-93); versatile running style.
• Trainer (26% recently) is decent, but graded stakes record is weak (0% in 6 starts).
• Assessment: Could hit the board with improvement, especially with blinkers and track experience.

9. Bear Claw Necklace (PP 9, Trainer: Saffie Joseph Jr., Jockey: Romero Maragh)

• Prime Power: 124.3 (12th)
• Record: 3 starts, 1-0-2, $36,470 (2025: 0-0-1, $8,470)
• Best Speed: 86 (Maiden win, 7f, GP, Dec 1, 2024)
• Running Style: Early (E 8)
• Key Points:
• 3rd in last out (OC75k, 1m, GP, Mar 9), but speed dropped to 77.
• Joseph (24% wins) is strong, especially 2nd off layoff (20%); sharp 4F workout (:47, Mar 28).
• Low speed figures (86, 72, 77) and no stakes experience.
• Assessment: Early speed could factor, but he’s outclassed based on figures.

10. McAfee (PP 10, Trainer: Richard Dutrow Jr., Jockey: Eric Cancel)

• Prime Power: 129.8 (8th)
• Record: 3 starts, 1-1-0, $80,880 (2025: 0-0-0, $12,000)
• Best Speed: 89 (Gotham G3, 1m, AQU, Mar 1)
• Running Style: Presser (P 2)
• Key Points:
• 5th in Gotham at Aqueduct (89 speed); showed some mid-pack rally.
• Dutrow (20% wins, 3-0-1 in 14 days) is a plus; 2nd off layoff angle (24%).
• Speed figures (74-83-89) are modest but improving.
• Assessment: A fringe contender for the lower exotics; needs more to win.

11. Statesman (PP 11, Trainer: Claude McGaughey III, Jockey: Samuel Marin)

• Prime Power: 125.4 (11th)
• Record: 5 starts, 2-0-1, $53,450 (2025: 2-0-0, $38,700)
• Best Speed: 91 (Maiden win, 1 1/16m, TAM, Jan 17)
• Running Style: Presser (P 4)
• Key Points:
• Won last out (OC75k, 1 1/16m, TAM, Feb 26, 84 speed); late surge impressed.
• McGaughey (16%) and Marin (17%) are respectable; Marin hot recently (27% in 60 days).
• Speed figures (91, 84) are below par; class jump is significant.
• Assessment: Improving, but speed and class concerns make him a longshot.

Updated Pace Scenario

Adding these horses:

• Early (E): Bear Claw Necklace (E 8) joins Rodriguez, Sand Devil, Grande.
• E/P: Tiger Twenty Four (E/P 3), My Mitole (E/P 6) join Captain Cook, Passion Rules.
• Presser (P): McAfee (P 2), Statesman (P 4) join the presser group.

The pace still looks moderately hot with Sand Devil, Rodriguez, Grande, and Bear Claw Necklace likely to push early. My Mitole and Captain Cook can stalk, while closers (Hill Road, Omaha Omaha) wait for a collapse.

Updated Top Picks

Considering the full field:

1. Captain Cook (2): Still the standout with Aqueduct success, top speed (100), and trainer form.
2. Sand Devil (5): Aqueduct mastery and early speed keep him near the top.
3. Hill Road (6): Class edge (101 speed) and trainer/jockey combo give him a shot to rebound.
4. Rodriguez (1): Early speed and Baffert’s touch make him dangerous, though distance is a question.

Secondary Contenders:

• My Mitole (4): Aqueduct experience and blinkers could lift him into the mix.
• Omaha Omaha (12): Consistent closer with track experience remains a value play.

Longshots: McAfee (10) and Passion Rules (8) could sneak in at a price, but Tiger Twenty Four (3), Bear Claw Necklace (9), and Statesman (11) look outclassed unless chaos ensues.

Updated Betting Strategies

Adjusting for the full field:

Win Bet

• Captain Cook (2): $10 Win. Remains the most reliable.

Exacta

• Box: 2-5 ($1 Exacta, $2 total). Core duo unchanged.
• Key: 2 / 1-4-5-6 ($1 Exacta, $4 total). Adds My Mitole for Aqueduct angle.

Trifecta

• $0.50 Trifecta Key: 2 / 1-4-5-6 / 1-4-5-6-12 ($10 total). Captain Cook over Rodriguez, My Mitole, Sand Devil, Hill Road, with Omaha Omaha underneath.
• $0.50 Trifecta Part-Wheel: 2-5 / 2-5 / 1-4-6-12 ($8 total). Tightens the top two, widens the third spot.

Superfecta

• $0.10 Superfecta Key: 2 / 5-6-1-4 / 5-6-1-4-12 / 5-6-1-4-12-10 ($4.80 total). Captain Cook to win, Sand Devil-Hill Road-Rodriguez-My Mitole next, then Omaha Omaha-McAfee for depth.

Daily Double

• $1 Double: 2 / ALL ($12 total, assuming 12 in Race 13). Sticking with Captain Cook as the anchor.

Final Thoughts (Revised)

Captain Cook and Sand Devil remain the horses to beat, with Hill Road and Rodriguez as serious threats. My Mitole’s Aqueduct form and Omaha Omaha’s closing kick add depth to the exotics. The others (3, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11) need significant improvement or a pace meltdown to factor heavily, though Passion Rules and McAfee have minor upset potential. I’ll refine further with the additional PPs you provide. Did I miss anything else you’d like me to focus on?

You’re absolutely right to ask—I should’ve included concerns for the horses I initially missed to keep the analysis consistent. Let’s go back to those five (Tiger Twenty Four, My Mitole, Bear Claw Necklace, McAfee, and Statesman) and outline specific concerns for each, just as I did for the others. I’ll keep it focused and tie it to the data from the Brisnet PPs.

Concerns for the Initially Missed Horses

3. Tiger Twenty Four (PP 3, Trainer: William Mott, Jockey: Javier Castellano)

• Concerns:
• Low Speed Figures: His best speed is 88 (maiden win), with prior figures of 83 and 73—well below the 97-100 range of top contenders like Captain Cook and Sand Devil.
• Class Jump: Moves from a maiden win to a G2 stakes, a significant step up with no prior stakes experience.
• No Aqueduct Experience: All starts at Gulfstream; shipping north and adapting to a new track could be an issue.
• Jockey Form: Castellano’s 8% win rate recently (4-8-8 in 52 starts) is modest compared to others like Franco or Lezcano.

4. My Mitole (PP 4, Trainer: Carlos Martin, Jockey: Luis Rivera Jr.)

• Concerns:
• Graded Stakes Fade: Finished 4th in the Gotham G3 (1m, Aqueduct) despite a decent 93 speed figure, suggesting he struggles to close the deal against tougher fields.
• Trainer’s Graded Stakes Record: Martin is 0% in 6 graded stakes starts, a red flag for this level of competition.
• Moderate Ceiling: Speed figures (80-86-93) are improving but still lag behind the top tier (97-101 range).
• Blinkers Uncertainty: First-time blinkers could help focus, but the 15% win rate in this spot isn’t overwhelming.

9. Bear Claw Necklace (PP 9, Trainer: Saffie Joseph Jr., Jockey: Romero Maragh)

• Concerns:
• Poor Recent Form: Dropped to a 77 speed figure in his last out (3rd, OC75k, 1m), down from 86 in his maiden win, indicating regression.
• Low Speed Figures: His best (86) is among the weakest in the field, far below the par needed for a G2.
• Class Jump: No stakes experience; moving from an OC75k to a G2 is a steep challenge.
• Jockey Stats: Maragh’s 10% win rate (29-27-38 in 284 starts) is below average for this competitive jockey colony.

10. McAfee (PP 10, Trainer: Richard Dutrow Jr., Jockey: Eric Cancel)

• Concerns:
• Limited Upside: 5th in the Gotham G3 (89 speed) at Aqueduct shows he can compete locally, but he was never a threat to win.
• Modest Speed Figures: His best (89) is respectable but trails the leaders (97-101), and prior figures (74, 83) suggest a lower baseline.
• One-Dimensional: Presser style (P 2) relies on a perfect trip; he lacks the early speed or late kick to dominate.
• Layoff Effect: 2nd off the layoff (trainer 24%), but his Gotham effort post-layoff wasn’t inspiring.

11. Statesman (PP 11, Trainer: Claude McGaughey III, Jockey: Samuel Marin)

• Concerns:
• Speed Deficiency: Best speed of 91 (maiden win) and 84 in his last out are below the winning threshold for this race (avg winning speed closer to 95-100).
• Class Jump: OC75k win to G2 is a big ask; no prior graded stakes experience.
• No Aqueduct Experience: All dirt starts at Tampa and Gulfstream; shipping and track adjustment could hinder him.
• Trainer’s Recent Form: McGaughey’s 11% win rate (1-2-0 in 9 starts) is lukewarm compared to hotter barns like Dutrow or Rice.

Impact on Overall Assessment

These concerns reinforce why I initially leaned toward horses like Captain Cook, Sand Devil, Hill Road, and Rodriguez as the primary contenders. The missed horses generally have lower speed figures, lack graded stakes success, and face significant class or track-adjustment hurdles. However:

• My Mitole (4) remains a fringe player due to Aqueduct experience and potential blinkers improvement.
• McAfee (10) could sneak into the lower exotics with Dutrow’s hot hand and track familiarity.
• The others (3, 9, 11) are more likely to struggle unless the pace collapses dramatically, which isn’t out of the question with multiple early speed types.

Updated Picks and Strategies (No Major Changes)

My top picks (2-5-6-1) still hold, with My Mitole (4) and Omaha Omaha (12) as secondary options. The concerns for 3, 9, 10, and 11 don’t elevate them significantly, but I’ll tweak the betting slightly to account for McAfee’s potential:

Revised Top Picks

1. Captain Cook (2)
2. Sand Devil (5)
3. Hill Road (6)
4. Rodriguez (1)

Revised Betting Strategies

• Win: $10 on Captain Cook (2).
• Exacta: $1 Box 2-5 ($2); $1 Key 2 / 1-4-5-6 ($4).
• Trifecta: $0.50 Key 2 / 1-4-5-6 / 1-4-5-6-12 ($10); $0.50 Part-Wheel 2-5 / 2-5 / 1-4-6-12 ($8).
• Superfecta: $0.10 Key 2 / 5-6-1-4 / 5-6-1-4-12-10 / 5-6-1-4-12-10 ($4.80) – Added McAfee (10).
• Daily Double: $1 2 / ALL ($12).

Final Note

The concerns for these horses highlight their uphill battles—speed, class, or track experience gaps. My Mitole and McAfee are the most likely of this group to crack the exotics, but the top four still dominate.

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