Wide-Open Gun Runner Stakes Kicks Off Fair Grounds’ Road to the Derby

The $100,000 Gun Runner Stakes at Fair Grounds on December 20, 2025, launches the track’s series of Kentucky Derby prep races with a competitive field of eight two-year-olds. Most entrants are coming off maiden victories, stepping up in class for this 1 1/16-mile test on dirt, while one brings proven stakes experience against restricted company. Several ship in from Churchill Downs with strong recent form, setting up an intriguing battle among promising colts eyeing bigger targets in the new year.

Leading the contenders is Crown the Buckeye, the field’s most accomplished runner with back-to-back victories in Ohio-restricted stakes. Trained by Mike Maker, this Yaupon colt has dominated his last two outings by a combined 16-plus lengths, including a convincing score around two turns in the Best of Ohio Juvenile at Mahoning Valley. His sharp recent workouts suggest he’s training forwardly, and his overall form rating stands out as the highest in the field, giving him a clear edge in proven competitiveness at this level.

Liberty National posted the field’s top last-race speed rating of 91 when winning impressively at Churchill Downs on November 29. The Maxfield colt, trained by Kenny McPeek, rallied from mid-pack to draw off by 4 1/2 lengths over this exact distance in his second career start. McPeek has praised him as a physically imposing athlete with significant upside potential for higher-level races.

Chip Honcho brings tactical speed to the mix under trainer Steve Asmussen. The Connect colt wired a one-mile maiden field over a sloppy track at Churchill Downs last out, after a solid runner-up effort on debut. He adds blinkers here, which could sharpen his focus, and his strong early pace figures make him a threat to control the race from the front.

From the rail, Mesquite impressed in his route debut for trainer Cherie DeVaux. The Union Rags homebred overcame trouble to win convincingly at Churchill Downs in November, showing good stamina and closing ability around two turns.

Brad Cox saddles a strong trio, including Mister Punch, an Into Mischief colt who dominated a maiden field at Churchill Downs in early November with a sharp turn of foot. Cox also enters Arabia Wild, a local maiden winner over this track and distance, and Quality Mischief, who overcame slow early times to graduate last out.

Rounding out the field are Very Connected, dropping in class after competing in graded stakes company for McPeek, offering valuable experience in tougher spots.

With multiple maiden breakers stepping up and one seasoned stakes winner, the Gun Runner shapes as a key early indicator for the 2026 classics. Crown the Buckeye’s proven form and Liberty National’s eye-catching last-out performance make them standouts in a balanced group.

Gun Runner Stakes Handicapping Analysis and Selections

Here’s a detailed breakdown and the AnglePicks selections for the $100,000 Gun Runner Stakes at Fair Grounds (1 1/16 miles dirt, two-year-olds).

Key Factors Considered

• Overall Strength Ratings — Crown the Buckeye leads at 143.6, well clear of Chip Honcho (131.1) and Mesquite (130.5).
• Last Race Speed Figures — Liberty National tops with 91, followed by Mister Punch and Crown the Buckeye at 90.
• Best Speed at Distance — Chip Honcho (116.3) and Crown the Buckeye (likely strong two-turn form from stakes wins).
• Class & Experience — Crown the Buckeye is the only one with stakes wins (two Ohio-restricted, but dominant). Very Connected has graded stakes experience (G2/G3 placed).
• Pace Scenario — Chip Honcho adds blinkers and has wired a route; likely sets the pace. Mesquite and Mister Punch can stalk; closers like Liberty National, Very Connected, and Crown the Buckeye benefit from pace.
• Trainer/Jockey — Strong barns (Cox with three, McPeek two, Asmussen, Maker, DeVaux). Top jockeys aboard.
• Recent Form/Layoffs — Several fresh off maiden wins; Crown the Buckeye off 56 days but sharp works.

Top Selections

1. #5 Crown the Buckeye (5/1 ML) – Top Pick. Highest Overall Strength by a wide margin, proven stakes winner with fast times (96 and 90 figs in restricted stakes). Yaupon sire suggests speed/stamina blend. Maker/Loveberry combo strong. Should sit perfect trip off the pace and overpower late.
2. #3 Liberty National (7/2 ML) – Strong contender. Best last-race figure (91), impressive rally to win at this distance. McPeek hot with juveniles; Hernandez aboard. Upside huge in third start.
3. #2 Chip Honcho (9/2 ML) – Pace threat. Blinkers on after front-running maiden win. Asmussen/Lopez dangerous if loose on lead.
4. #8 Mister Punch (6/1 ML) – Value play. Big figure jump winning maiden on dirt (90). Cox/Saez; outside post good for stalking trip.

Others

• #1 Mesquite (9/2) — Solid maiden win overcoming trouble; rail draw helps.
• #7 Very Connected (9/2) — Drops from graded stakes; experience edge but lower figs.
• #4 Quality Mischief (10/1) & #6 Arabia Wild (8/1) — Longer prices; need big improvement.

Wagering Strategy (Base $100 total play)

• Win/Place: $15 Win, $20 Place on #5 Crown the Buckeye
• Exacta Box: $5 Exacta Box 3-5-2-8 ($60 total – 12 combinations)
• Trifecta Key: $2 Tri Key #5 over 2-3-8 over 1-2-3-7-8 ($32 total)
• Small Superfecta: $1 Super Wheel #5 with 2-3-8 with 2-3-8 with 1-2-3-4-6-7-8 (if budget allows)

Best Bet: Crown the Buckeye to win. Expect him to prove best in this step up, with pace helping his late run.

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