- Trainer PPs UPDATED
- Sire PPs UPDATED
Tropical Park Oaks Full Field With Plenty of Value
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The $125,000 Tropical Park Oaks highlights Saturday’s card at Gulfstream Park as Race 8, with a post time of approximately 3:47 p.m. ET. This 1 1/16-mile turf test for 3-year-old fillies has drawn a deep and competitive field, featuring several with recent stakes experience and strong connections. With the rail at 45 feet and the possibility of a move to Tapeta if conditions worsen, pace dynamics and closing ability will be key. Live Oak Plantation has a strong hand with multiple entries, while top trainers like Brad Cox, Mark Casse, and Michael Trombetta saddle contenders capable of lighting up the board.
Top Contenders
Destino d’Oro (Post 4, 3/1 morning line) tops the class ratings with a field-high Overall Strength Rating of 157.2. Trained by Brad Cox for Steve Landers Racing, this Bolt d’Oro filly has earned over $472,000 with three wins in six starts. Her standout performance came in the Grade 3 Pucker Up Stakes at Ellis Park, where she stalked and kicked clear impressively. Though she faded in tougher spots like the Grade 1 QEII Challenge Cup (8th) and Grade 3 Dueling Grounds Oaks (6th), those came against elite competition. Edgard Zayas rides, and a class drop could suit her perfectly—she’s the one to beat if she handles the layoff (last raced in October).
And One More Time (Post 3, 5/1) boasts the highest last-race speed figure (90) and second-best Overall Strength Rating (144.6). Mark Casse trains this Omaha Beach filly for Live Oak Plantation, and she’s undefeated in two turf routes, including a gritty win in the Grade 1 Natalma last year as a juvenile. After a long layoff, she returned sharply at Woodbine in September, grinding between horses to prevail. Javier Castellano takes the mount, adding appeal. Her figures dominate in several categories (tied for best speed last race, top Overall Strength Rating among recent performers), making her a logical favorite if she builds on that comeback.
It Ain’t Two (Post 9, 10/1) ranks third in Overall Strength Rating (141.9) and brings international flair. Trained by Riley Mott, this European import has competed in graded stakes abroad and stateside, including a third in the Grade 3 Ontario Colleen. She’s versatile and could improve stretching out again. David Egan rides.
Ramsey Pond (Post 6, 12/1) and Mischief in Motion (Post 5, 10/1) both exited the Oct. 31 Cellars Shiraz Stakes at Gulfstream, where Crafty Collector won but these two ran credibly (Ramsey Pond third after trouble, Mischief in Motion second). Ramsey Pond, a consistent stakes placer for Ken Ramsey and Saffie Joseph Jr., has Tyler Gaffalione aboard and strong route form (116.0 best speed at distance). Mischief in Motion, another Live Oak entry trained by Trombetta, won the Christiana Stakes earlier this year.
Crafty Collector (Post 7, 10/1) upset the Cellars Shiraz at 61-1 and could repeat if she carries that form forward. Her recent 87 speed figure is competitive.
Supa Speed (Post 10, 7/2) has been off since April but posted a sharp 99 in the Grade 1 Ashland. Brian Lynch trains this Justify filly, and Junior Alvarado rides—watch for fitness off the layoff.
Others like Souper Williwaw (Post 2, 12/1) (recent wins at the distance for Trombetta), Souper Zonda (Post 8, 12/1) (perfect on turf for Casse), and Miss Mary Nell (Post 12, 30/1) (highest last-race figure of 90 on all-weather) add depth. Longshots Nosleeptilbrooklyn (Post 11, 30/1), Brown Sugar (Post 13, 20/1), and Jalila (Post 14, 15/1) could spice exotics.
Key Angles and Pace Scenario
Early speed comes from Miss Mary Nell, Crafty Collector, and possibly Mischief in Motion, setting up for stalkers like Destino d’Oro and And One More Time. Late runners such as Ramsey Pond and It Ain’t Two could benefit if the pace heats up. Overall Strength Rating leaders (Destino d’Oro, And One More Time, It Ain’t Two) and best-distance figures (And One More Time 116.1, Ramsey Pond 116.0) suggest a blend of class and stamina will prevail.
This Oaks shapes up as a bettor’s delight—deep, talented, and likely offering value beyond the favorites.
Top Contenders and Betting Insights
| Post | Horse | Trainer | Jockey | Morning Line Odds | Key Insights |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Smart Union | H. Graham Motion | John R. Velazquez | 12/1 | Consistent turf performer with wins at Gulfstream; solid connections but needs a step up in class. |
| 2 | Souper Williwaw | Michael J. Trombetta | Jorge Ruiz | 12/1 | Recent winner at the distance; Live Oak homebred improving on grass. |
| 3 | And One More Time | Mark E. Casse | Javier Castellano | 5/1 | Top last-race figure (90); undefeated in turf routes when fresh; strong closer with elite jockey upgrade. |
| 4 | Destino d’Oro | Brad H. Cox | Edgard J. Zayas | 3/1 | Field-high Overall Strength Rating (157.2); Grade 3 winner with proven stamina; class drop makes her the one to beat. |
| 5 | Mischief in Motion | Michael J. Trombetta | Emisael Jaramillo | 10/1 | Runner-up in Cellars Shiraz Stakes; stakes winner earlier this year; presses the pace. |
| 6 | Ramsey Pond | Saffie A. Joseph Jr. | Tyler Gaffalione | 12/1 | Third in Cellars Shiraz after trouble; consistent stakes placer at Gulfstream; high-percentage jockey switch. |
| 7 | Crafty Collector | Gerald S. Bennett | Edwin Gonzalez | 10/1 | Upset winner of Cellars Shiraz at big odds; dangerous if she repeats that form. |
| 8 | Souper Zonda | Mark E. Casse | Miguel Angel Vasquez | 12/1 | Perfect on turf; figures to improve returning to grass for hot barn. |
| 9 | It Ain’t Two | Riley Mott | David Egan | 10/1 | Third in Overall Strength Rating; international graded experience; could rally late stretching out. |
| 10 | Supa Speed | Brian A. Lynch | Junior Alvarado | 7/2 | Sharp turf form earlier; long layoff but high talent level; watch morning line for value. |
| 11 | Nosleeptilbrooklyn | Brian A. Lynch | Mario Gutierrez | 30/1 | Longshot with route experience; needs big improvement. |
| 12 | Miss Mary Nell | Carlos A. David | Joe Bravo | 30/1 | Highest recent all-weather figure; turf questions but high trainer percentage. |
AE (Also Eligible): #13 Brown Sugar (20/1), #14 Jalila (15/1)
Betting Strategy Highlights:
- Top Pick: #4 Destino d’Oro (3/1) – Anchor for win/place/show and multi-race bets.
- Value Contender: #9 It Ain’t Two (10/1) – Use underneath in exactas/trifectas.
- Exotic Plays: Box #3, #4, #5, #6 in exactas and trifectas for coverage of recent prep form.
- Longshot Bomber: #7 Crafty Collector (10/1) – Proven upset potential at Gulfstream.
This deep field promises overlays and big payouts—focus on leaders and Cellars Shiraz rematchers for the best shots.
