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Tropical Park Derby: A Deep Field With Value
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The $125,000 Tropical Park Derby on December 13, 2025, at Gulfstream Park promises an intriguing clash of emerging 3-year-old turf specialists over 1 1/16 miles. A full field of 12 has assembled, featuring several horses with recent stakes experience and strong form lines. Among the standout contenders are an undefeated late developer, a Godolphin homebred on the rise, a fresh graded stakes winner shipping south, and a pair of rematching rivals from a local prep.
Leading the group is Souper Forces, a homebred gelding for Live Oak Plantation trained by Michael Trombetta. Perfect in three career starts, this son of Laoban has shown steady progression, culminating in a determined victory in the Showing Up Stakes at this exact distance on Gulfstream turf last out. He rallied from midpack to prevail by a half-length, defeating several rivals who return here. Trombetta has a history of success in this event, having won it previously with another Live Oak homebred. Souper Forces rates highly on overall strength and brings tactical speed that suits the course.
Godolphin’s Chapman’s Peak arrives in peak form under trainer Brad Cox. This Quality Road gelding has won two of his last three, including a front-running allowance score at Keeneland and a maiden-breaking tally at Kentucky Downs. His most recent effort was a strong second in the Commonwealth Turf Stakes at Churchill Downs, where he dueled throughout before being narrowly caught late. With top marks in overall strength and class rating, he appears well-spotted dropping slightly in company while retaining jockey Tyler Gaffalione.
Tiz Dashing, a son of Tiz the Law for Sackatoga Stable and trainer Barclay Tagg, brings graded stakes credentials after capturing the Hill Prince Stakes (G3) at Aqueduct. He gamely held off challengers in that 1 1/8-mile test, earning the field’s highest last-race speed figure. His turf pedigree and ability to grind out victories make him a serious threat, especially with Hall of Famer Javier Castellano aboard.
Patrick Biancone’s Layabout, another Laoban gelding, nearly upset Souper Forces in the Showing Up, leading into deep stretch before settling for second by a half-length. He owns strong early pace figures and excels at this distance, with prior wins including a minor stakes over the Gulfstream turf. His high overall strength and consistent form position him as a dangerous pace player.
Rounding out the key players is Church and State, trained by Steve Owens, who finished a solid third in the Hill Prince behind Tiz Dashing. This Caravaggio gelding has multiple stakes wins on his resume from Woodbine and ships in with proven closing ability.
Other notables include Todd Pletcher’s Candytown, who encountered traffic but rallied for fourth in the Showing Up; and Simulate, from the Bill Mott barn, with experience against graded company.
With familiar foes rematching and shippers adding class, the Tropical Park Derby shapes up as one of the most competitive turf stakes of the Gulfstream meet, highlighting the depth of this 3-year-old division on grass.
Top Contenders and Betting Insights
The race features a stacked field of 12 three-year-olds battling over 1 1/16 miles on turf. Several horses bring recent stakes form, including rematches from the Showing Up Stakes and graded performers shipping in from northern tracks.
Morning-line odds reflect a wide-open affair with no heavy favorite:
| Post | Horse | Trainer | Jockey | Morning Line Odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Thundering | Derek Ryan | Jomar Torres | 20/1 |
| 2 | Discreet Dancer | Antonio Sano | John Velazquez | 30/1 |
| 3 | Tiz Dashing | Barclay Tagg | Javier Castellano | 7/2 |
| 4 | Church and State | Steve Owens | Micah Husbands | 8/1 |
| 5 | Day and Age | Mark Casse | Edwin Gonzalez | 20/1 |
| 6 | Layabout | Patrick Biancone | Junior Alvarado | 10/1 |
| 7 | Chapman’s Peak | Brad Cox | Tyler Gaffalione | 5/2 |
| 8 | Simulate | Bill Mott | Joe Bravo | 12/1 |
| 9 | Roar of the Beast | Saffie Joseph Jr. | Rajiv Maragh | 20/1 |
| 10 | Candytown | Todd Pletcher | Edgard Zayas | 8/1 |
| 11 | Tank | Carlos David | Emisael Jaramillo | 8/1 |
| 12 | Souper Forces | Michael Trombetta | Cipriano Gil | 8/1 |
Chapman’s Peak (5/2) emerges as the narrow favorite off his strong Commonwealth Turf Stakes runner-up effort. Tiz Dashing (7/2) commands respect as a fresh Grade 3 winner in the Hill Prince.
Betting Picks and Strategy
This competitive field offers value opportunities, especially in exotics, with potential for pace pressure upfront and closers benefiting late.
- Win/Top Pick: #7 Chapman’s Peak (5/2) → Godolphin’s homebred has progressed rapidly under Brad Cox, showing tactical speed and a potent closing kick. His recent figures top the field in class and overall strength, and he drops slightly while keeping elite connections.
- Value Play: #12 Souper Forces (8/1) → Undefeated in three starts, including a gritty Showing Up win over several rivals here. Trainer Michael Trombetta notes he’s understated but improving steadily—perfect profile for another upset in this series.
- Strong Contender: #3 Tiz Dashing (7/2) → Graded winner ships south with proven grinding style; Javier Castellano’s booking adds appeal.
- Upset Potential: #6 Layabout (10/1) → Nearly turned back Souper Forces last out despite a tough trip; better post and Junior Alvarado aboard could flip the result.
Suggested Wagers:
- $20 Win/Place on #7 Chapman’s Peak
- $10 Exacta Box: 7-12-3-6 ($120 for $10 base)
- $2 Trifecta Part-Wheel: 7,12,3,6 with 7,12,3,6 with ALL ($96)
- $1 Superfecta Key: 7,12 with 7,12,3,6 with 7,12,3,6,4,10 with ALL (adjust to budget)
The race sets up for a thrilling finish—expect Chapman’s Peak or Souper Forces to prevail, but layer in the value horses for bigger payouts in this deep edition of the Tropical Park Derby.
