Horse racing news and analysis from TheFreePPs.com
ATTENTION: You can now access free past performances using the URL FreePPs.com.
Help the player. Help the game.
Free Past Performances
Home / News / 2025 Arkansas Derby: Thoughts on Speed King and Cornucopian

2025 Arkansas Derby: Thoughts on Speed King and Cornucopian

Kentucky Derby 2025 Prep Race Canva

Let’s zoom in on Speed King’s rebound potential and Cornucopian’s route projection. Both have intriguing angles that could shake up the Arkansas Derby, especially with Speed King’s prior form and Cornucopian’s Baffert-backed upside.

Speed King (PP5, E 5) – Rebound Odds

Current Standing

  • Initial Rank: 4th (dropped after Rebel key race analysis).
  • Rebel Performance: 10th (80 speed figure), faded badly (E1 97, E2 99, LP 63).
  • Prime Power: 139.1 (2nd).
  • Record: 4 starts, 2-1-0, $700,250, Avg Speed 92.

Why He Flopped in the Rebel

  • Trip: Ran 4th early, close to a hot pace (+16 E1 bias), brushed at the 1/8 pole, then emptied out (LP 63 is abysmal vs. par ~90-95). Suggests he got cooked chasing.
  • Context: Came off a Southwest-G3 win (Jan 25, 92, E1 95, E2 106, LP 77) at 1 1/16m, where he led wire-to-wire. Rebel’s deeper field and pace pressure exposed him.
  • Physical: No obvious excuse (no vet report in PPs), but 29-day gap from Southwest to Rebel might’ve left him flat.

Rebound Indicators

  1. Prior Form:
  • Southwest win (92) and Springboard Mile 2nd (91) show he can handle stakes company. His E2 106 in the Southwest is elite, hinting at stamina potential.
  • Avg Speed 92 is below par (~100), but consistent 90+ figures suggest baseline talent.
  1. Trainer/Jockey:
  • Ron Moquett (17% meet, 34% with Bejarano L60) has a hot hand. His 14% route win rate is solid.
  • Rafael Bejarano (22% meet, 19% with early speed types) fits Speed King’s E 5 style. Their 3-2-0 in 11 starts over 14 days is a confidence booster.
  1. Post-Rebel Prep:
  • Sharp 4f workout (Mar-20, :47.6, 1/47 at Oaklawn). Fastest of the day signals he’s bounced back physically.
  • 35-day gap to Arkansas Derby mirrors his 43-day gap between Springboard Mile and Southwest (improved from 91 to 92).
  1. Pace Scenario:
  • Arkansas Derby pace setters (Bestfriend Rocket E/P 8, Cornucopian E 6) might not push as hard as the Rebel’s +16 E1. If Speed King can rate (e.g., E1 ~90-92 vs. 97), his LP could rebound to ~80-85, keeping him in contention.

Rebound Odds

  • Likelihood: Moderate (40-50%). His Southwest win proves he can dominate when right, but the Rebel clunker (LP 63) suggests vulnerability under pressure. The workout and trainer/jockey form tilt toward a bounce-back.
  • Ceiling: Top 4 (trifecta/superfecta). A win requires a perfect trip and Coal Battle/Sandman faltering, but 3rd or 4th is plausible if he sustains his E2 (106 range).
  • Risk: Another fade if pace heats up or he’s not fully recovered. Rebel’s key race status doesn’t fully erase his 80.

Verdict

Speed King’s rebound hinges on rating off a softer pace and regaining his Southwest zip. I’d slot him as a 5th-place contender behind Publisher (4th), but he’s a live exotic player at 8-1 or higher odds.

Cornucopian (PP9, E 6) – Route Projection

Current Standing

  • Initial Rank: 3rd (unchanged after Rebel tweak).
  • Debut: Won 6f mdn (Feb 23, 100 speed figure), E1 97, E2 98, LP 99.
  • Prime Power: 138.5 (3rd).
  • Record: 1 start, 1-0-0, $66,000, Avg Speed 100.

Debut Breakdown

  • Performance: Broke sharp, dueled, cleared by 2.5L at Oaklawn (100 speed ties par). Balanced figures (97 98/99) show early speed and finishing ability.
  • Trip: Clean, no adversity; heavily bet (*0.70 odds) reflects confidence.
  • Context: Beat modest maidens, but 100 is the field’s highest last-race figure.

Route Projection Factors

  1. Pedigree:
  • Sire: Into Mischief (AWD 6.8f, 18% mud, 2.49 SPI). Produces versatile speed (e.g., Authentic, 10f classic winner).
  • Dam: Magical World (Distorted Humor, stakes winner, 6-3-0 in 7 starts, 8.54 DPI). Strong stamina influence; half-sister to route winners.
  • Fit: Pedigree screams 7-9f capability, with potential for 10f later.
  1. Running Style:
  • E 6 suggests front-end speed, but his LP 99 in a 6f sprint indicates he didn’t tire. Stretching to 9f should suit if he rates (e.g., E1 ~90-92 vs. 97).
  • Baffert often trains speed horses to relax (e.g., Arrogate, McKinzie); Cornucopian’s debut poise hints at adaptability.
  1. Trainer/Jockey:
  • Bob Baffert: 33% meet (small sample), 29% 2024-25, 35% mdn win L/R, 31% first route. Master at stretching debut winners (e.g., Justify, Medina Spirit).
  • John Velazquez: 19% routes, excels with Baffert shippers. His patience could manage Cornucopian’s E 6 energy.
  • Prep: Sharp 5f work (Mar-22, 1:00, 5/41 at Santa Anita). Baffert’s 6f work (Mar-17, 1:11.6) pre-race suggests stamina focus.
  1. Class Jump:
  • Mdn to G1 is steep, but Baffert’s 28% graded stakes win rate and Cornucopian’s 100 debut ease the leap. Rebel horses (Coal Battle, Sandman) are tougher, but his raw speed competes.

Route Projection

  • Likelihood: High (70-80%). Pedigree, debut balance (97 98/99), and Baffert’s track record strongly favor a successful stretch to 9f. LP 99 at 6f projects to ~90-95 at 9f, matching par.
  • Ceiling: Top 3 (win contender). If he handles the distance and gets a clean trip, he could challenge Coal Battle/Sandman. A 100-102 speed figure is within reach.
  • Risk: Inexperience (2nd start) and pace pressure from Bestfriend Rocket/Speed King. If he duels early (E1 >95), he might fade late.

Verdict

Cornucopian’s route projection is bullish—Baffert’s magic, a 100 debut, and a pedigree built for 9f make him a serious threat. I’d keep him 3rd but elevate his win probability slightly (20-25% vs. Coal’s 40-45%, Sandman’s 30-35%).

Adjusted Thoughts

  • Speed King: Rebound odds (~40%) make him a 5th-place player (8-6-9-3-5 superfecta). His Southwest form and workout suggest he’s not done, but the Rebel clunker caps his ceiling.
  • Cornucopian: Route projection (70-80%) solidifies him as a top-3 lock, with a puncher’s chance to win if Coal Battle stumbles. Baffert’s touch keeps him dangerous.

No major prediction shift—Coal Battle (8), Sandman (6), Cornucopian (9), Publisher (3)—but Speed King (5) slots into 5th as a rebound exotic.