San Felipe Stakes OPI Breakdown: Class vs. Unbeaten Speed

San Felipe Stakes (G2) – Santa Anita Park

With the calendar flipping to March, the “Road to the Kentucky Derby” has hit a higher gear. This weekend features two pivotal qualifying races—the San Felipe Stakes at Santa Anita and the Tampa Bay Derby at Tampa Bay Downs—each offering a lucrative 50-25-15-10-5 point distribution to the top five finishers.

Read the 2026 Tampa Bay Derby Analysis, Picks, and Free PPs

Fresh off last weekend’s action where Commandment, winner of the G2 Fountain of Youth Stakes, and Class President, winner of the G2 Rebel Stakes, secured their spots in the starting gate, a new crop of sophomores looks to solidify their standing for the first Saturday in May.

The 2026 San Felipe Stakes at Santa Anita is a classic Baffert-dominated affair, but the OPI “hard filters” reveal a fascinating clash between established class and two undefeated rising stars. With 50 Kentucky Derby points on the line, the winner joins the elite tier of the leaderboard.

OPI Contender Analysis

The field is headlined by a formidable duo from the barn of Bob Baffert, who is looking to bounce back after some recent reshuffling of his top prospects. Brant, the heavy favorite at even money is returning from a long layoff will face off against two sprinters stretching out to a route for the first time. His stablemate Potente won his maiden opener going six furlongs and will try to stretch his speed around two turns in what will be a tough test for him. Undefeated So Happy from the barn of Mark Glatt will try to turn his last out victory in the 7 furlong G2 San Vicente Stakes into a triple play in his first start around two turns hoping to hit the leaderboard with 50 points.

Trainer Talk

• Mark Glatt (So Happy): “You never know until they do it,” Glatt said regarding the two-turn distance. “But he’s given every indication… I never felt like I was on fumes at the end [of his sprints].”
• Bob Baffert (Brant): Baffert confirmed Brant is right where he needs to be after a four-month layoff, noting he has “lived up to expectations” since his $3 million purchase.
• Dan Blacker (Start the Ride): Decided on the San Felipe after a sharp work in company. Blacker is testing if his state-bred star can handle “open company” elite speed.

Hard Filter Alert: Proving “Lifetime Distance” at 1 1/16 Miles

The Class Standard: Brant

Brant is the “Alpha” of this field. His 3rd place finish in the G1 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile is the strongest “Key Race” filter available. He grudgingly gave way that day to the current division leaders. He has the “Lifetime Distance” experience and a series of “bullet” workouts (including a 1:11.2 six-furlong move) that suggest he is ready to fire off the bench.

The “Unbeaten” Challenger: So Happy

So Happy is 2-for-2 and coming off a visually impressive win in the San Vicente. However, he faces two major “Hard Filters”:

1. Distance: He has never raced beyond 7 furlongs.
2. Layoff: He hasn’t raced in 56 days.While his speed is undeniable, the OPI system slightly discounts him compared to Brant because he hasn’t yet proven he can handle the 1 1/16-mile “two-turn” trip.

The Longshot: Start the Ride

Start the Ride is a classic “Hard Filter” play. He has a win at the distance (Cal Cup Derby) and is trained by Dan Blacker, who is hitting at 19%. While his speed figures are lower (88), he has “lung capacity” that the sprinters in this field lack. If the leaders duel, he is the one most likely to pick up the pieces. But he’ll run against open company for the first time in his third career start.

Wagering Strategy

The San Felipe often runs “chalky”, but the Exacta offers value if we look past the top two.

• The Win Bet: #4 Brant. His Prime Power and Class Rating are simply too high to ignore, even with the layoff.
• The Exacta Cold: 4 / 6. The two fastest horses in the race.
• The OPI Trifecta:
  • Top: 4
  • Middle: 5, 6
  • Bottom: 2, 3, 5, 6

Santa Anita Track Intelligence Report: March 7, 2026

For today’s Big ‘Cap Day (Saturday, March 7, 2026), the surface at Santa Anita is playing exactly how “speed-centric” players prefer, but with a specific wrinkle for the route races. We expect that the Inside Speed bias from earlier this week will still hold for today’s stakes races.

Santa Anita Handicapping Insights for Today

• Main Track (Dirt): The rail isn’t a “highway” today. Recent results show that while you want to be forward, being pinned on the fence can be tiring. Look for horses that can sit 2-wide just off the pace. This is why So Happy is gaining steam in the San Felipe—he has that “stalk and pounce” style that fits this profile.
• The “Big ‘Cap” Route (1 1/4 Miles): At this marathon distance, the “sprightly pace” expected from Midnight Mammoth and Getaway Car might actually play into the hands of a tactical runner like Just a Touch. Over 10 furlongs here, pure front-runners often “hit the wall” at the 3/16 pole if they don’t get a breather.
• Weather Impact: It’s warm and sunny in Arcadia today. A dry, baked track usually tightens up, making it harder for deep closers to make up ground on the dirt. If you’re playing the San Felipe, don’t look further back than 4 lengths at the half-mile pole.

Get the Edge. Bet the Edge.

Click here to access free pps for the San Felipe Stakes. See the free past performances for Bob Baffert.

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